President 2016

[Dan Druff]

What don't you understand?

I would be absolutely shocked if Trump loses. Like, beyond -600 shocked. I'm talking -2000 or higher shocked. He has been crushing in SC the whole way, and I don't see that changing in the next 5 days.

If you think I'm simply betting it because I believe Trump has the best chance to win, you don't understand why I bet it.

Well, I guess you see it as -1000/-2000.

While I am enjoying the Trump show, I have a healthy respect for his potential (willingness?) to self-detonate. I don't know how to apply math toward that potential.

Going after ex-President Bush hammer & tongs. Iraq etc. Love it. Fucking unprecedented attack of his own party's icon. Especially interesting given old man Bush is hitting the campaign trail.

This is Trump. He is one remark over the next week or two from vaporizing that lead. You need to take a quiet moment to quantify that very real risk.

The above is really just me jousting with you. I am hugely impressed with the energy and intellect you use to make reads of individuals personality and motives. Thus, I have been amazed with your disconnect as the campaigns have unfolded. Crowd psychology or whatever might not be your thing. I have seen evidence on other issues. Your ability to separate your own feelings and make a dispassionate assessment of reality. Your early Rubio analysis crippled your credibility with me. I so far have dismissed that you understand the voter zeitgeist. It gives me a bit of insight into your world as I develop my own read of you. Fun stuff is all.

Your current acceptance that Trump is leading is one thing. But do you understand why?

What "disconnect"?

Wat "early Rubio analysis" of mine was incorrect?

When Rubio was on the rise late last year, I said so, and I said that he seemed to be the favorite to end up challenging Trump for the nomination.

When he stagnated, I said that it looked more like a 2-man race, with Rubio being the outside 3rd.

After Iowa, Rubio's candidacy was reinvigorated, and I said he was again going to be viable. Political analysts and even the sportsbooks agreed.

After the bad debate, I said that it would probably hurt Rubio and destroy his momentum, and it did.

At the moment I am conceding that Trump is the favorite for the nomination, as much as I don't like it.

So where am I disconnected?

[sonatine]

I'll never get used to people without security clearance accusing people with security clearance of 'lying' because they refuse to break the law and disclose classified data.

[simpdog]

Sorry but I just can't stop laughing thinking about Trump vs Hillary.

Can you say highest ratings ever? Possible highest voter turnout as well?

[4Dragons]

I'll never get used to people without security clearance accusing people with security clearance of 'lying' because they refuse to break the law and disclose classified data.

I disavow this conversation. It never happened and we have never met.

[sonatine]

www.jebbush.com

[FPS_Russia]

Registered Democrat? This video will rock you to your core.

Question: When Hillary inevitably wins the nomination, are you going to remain this critical of her during the general election?

Nope, Hillary's biggest fan @ SCOTUS vacancies.

[FPS_Russia]

Real talk.

[big dick]

http://www.pokernewsdaily.com/presid...wn-hall-28101/

[Dan Druff]

http://www.pokernewsdaily.com/presid...wn-hall-28101/

If you read past the sensational headline, you'll see that Rubio is actually pro-legalization of online poker, but is just against legalizing other forms of online gambling.

He isn't a fan of the current state-by-state regulation and would prefer to do it federally, but it basically sounds like he wants to leave online poker alone, even though Adelson (who has expressed interest in backing him) is against online poker.

So that's good enough.

I wouldn't vote for the guy if he was a rabid online poker opponent, but since he's already qualifying that online poker is different and he'd be fine with regulation of it, I can feel fine about supporting him.

[4Dragons]

Well at least you're not afraid to admit how deep in the sand your head actually is. All Democrats lie to everyone, knowing that no matter what they say, their idiot voters will vote for them on their single issue bullshit and the very educated voters vote for them because they know already that they are lying and understand that when they get into office, they'll just continue to advance the agenda, no matter who the candidate is. That's why the morality of a Democrat has never mattered.

This is hilarious. Only Democrats lie? News flash.....all these fuckers lie. Look at the "options" we have....Clinton, Sanders, Bush, Cruz, Trump, Rubio? We are fucked no matter what lol.

I guess it's the nature of the lying. Republicans lie but the base actually takes them at their word and holds them to a moral standard. That was the point of what I said. If a Republican goes back on his word i.e 'No new taxes', he gets his dick cut off and shoved down his throat. If a Democrat tells you that 'you can keep your doctor' and lies, everyone already knew that you wouldn't be able to but said it to lie to the republican side to get them on the hook. Democrats laugh that the lie worked. Republicans that vote for democrats are suckers because they are laughing at you.

[abrown83]

Fascinating stuff going on in South Carolina.

Cruz has a Super PAC that has knocked on 100,000 doors, never been tried before by a Super PAC.

Will be interesting to see how that works out.

Early Predictions:

Trump 31%
Cruz 28%
Bush 16%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 8%
Carson 6%

[Dan Druff]

Fascinating stuff going on in South Carolina.

Cruz has a Super PAC that has knocked on 100,000 doors, never been tried before by a Super PAC.

Will be interesting to see how that works out.

Early Predictions:

Trump 31%
Cruz 28%
Bush 16%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 8%
Carson 6%

If it goes this way, it will really fuck me. I have $600 at -120 for Trump winning by 8 or more. Looks like a lock, but if this Super PAC tightens the gap below 8, that will really suck.

I still think my -600 bet for $1500 on Bovada for Trump to win OUTRIGHT is safe.

Election is only 4 days away, and Trump is ahead by 20 right now in poll averages.

[4Dragons]

Can we start taking bets on Bernie winning the popular vote in a State, but losing because of Superdelegates yet?

[abrown83]

Can we start taking bets on Bernie winning the popular vote in a State, but losing because of Superdelegates yet?

Problem with that is media just presumes all Super Delegates are pro Hillary. We will see if this continues to be close if they bail on her.

[abrown83]

www.jebbush.com

Saw this story got recycled today, must be a slow news day.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...edirect-216501

This story came out in December

[BetCheckBet]

www.jebbush.com

Saw this story got recycled today, must be a slow news day.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...edirect-216501

This story came out in December

It was also posted on PFA back in December too... I should remember because I was the only one to positive rep such a post...

http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...olitics/page19

[sonatine]

Saw this story got recycled today, must be a slow news day.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...edirect-216501

This story came out in December

It was also posted on PFA back in December too... I should remember because I was the only one to positive rep such a post...

http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...olitics/page19

oh funny, yeah i just noticed the tweet date was jan 6 2016. so apparently trumps team is making sure this stays trending.

[Jayjami]

Fascinating stuff going on in South Carolina.

Cruz has a Super PAC that has knocked on 100,000 doors, never been tried before by a Super PAC.

Will be interesting to see how that works out.

Early Predictions:

Trump 31%
Cruz 28%
Bush 16%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 8%
Carson 6%

If it goes this way, it will really fuck me. I have $600 at -120 for Trump winning by 8 or more. Looks like a lock, but if this Super PAC tightens the gap below 8, that will really suck.

I still think my -600 bet for $1500 on Bovada for Trump to win OUTRIGHT is safe.

Election is only 4 days away, and Trump is ahead by 20 right now in poll averages.

LOL. There is no such thing as a lock. That is why they call it gambling. Pulling for you anyway. Good luck.

[MumblesBadly]

This is hilarious. Only Democrats lie? News flash.....all these fuckers lie. Look at the "options" we have....Clinton, Sanders, Bush, Cruz, Trump, Rubio? We are fucked no matter what lol.

I guess it's the nature of the lying. Republicans lie but the base actually takes them at their word and holds them to a moral standard. That was the point of what I said. If a Republican goes back on his word i.e 'No new taxes', he gets his dick cut off and shoved down his throat. If a Democrat tells you that 'you can keep your doctor' and lies, everyone already knew that you wouldn't be able to but said it to lie to the republican side to get them on the hook. Democrats laugh that the lie worked. Republicans that vote for democrats are suckers because they are laughing at you.

More bullshit. For example, Team Bush lied about being a "compassionate consersative", and specifically about his "faith initiative". The guy who initially ran his faith initiative program quit after a few years after realizing that Team Bush was simply using "faith" to cynically promote other agendas. And he wrote a scathing indictment of the matter. But the vast swaths of religious conservatives continued to support Bush to get him re-elected.

[sonatine]

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