*** Official NFL/ NCAA Betting Discussion Thread

[JimmyG_415]

All the fish at my local casino were talking about the game, and how much they love the Jets. I think they are both awful, but NE will beat them. I would wait if you like NE I think it will be close to 10 at gametime if the public keeps betting it down. I would consider playing it at -10, but theres a 60% chance of storms. If theres rain I wouldnt touch it. I think Chinas correct the under is probably the best play.

The more I think about this game if the weathers fine NE has to win by at least 14. The Jets running backs had 22 carries for 44 yards. Their top receiver although a fuckin soldier hes a tight end and not that good. I think NE will play alot of nickel and dime and keep the rookie in the pocket and say beat us by throwing. Not sure if I will play it yet but Im leaning towards NE and under.

NFL Posted plays ytd 9-3 75%
Service plays posted ytd 3-1 75%

Well now that you are documenting the season, make sure you give us your final decision here.

Not talking shit, here, just for fun, I'll go $ 100 you don't end up + units (@ 1.10) for the 17 weeks/ plus playoffs?
You'd need to go 52.5 %. Minimum 5 plays a weekend during the season.

I have 9-3, so + 5.7 units for now.
If you like some games better you can go 2 units on those.

[ShadyJ]

Ras plays so far Im sure there will be alot more by saturday. 4-5 ytd since I started tracking
123 b green ov 61
161 ball st under 63-
177 kansas over 57-
193 wisc over 52

[ShadyJ]

I unloaded on ATL-7 even money earlier in the week, and the line is the same on Bovada but you might get 6.5 some places. This is free money. Trust me this is free money.

[mulva]

I unloaded on ATL-7 even money earlier in the week, and the line is the same on Bovada but you might get 6.5 some places. This is free money. Trust me this is free money.

i have to say i was very upset w/ atl last week. i had them on the ML

[ShadyJ]

The more I think about this game if the weathers fine NE has to win by at least 14. The Jets running backs had 22 carries for 44 yards. Their top receiver although a fuckin soldier hes a tight end and not that good. I think NE will play alot of nickel and dime and keep the rookie in the pocket and say beat us by throwing. Not sure if I will play it yet but Im leaning towards NE and under.

NFL Posted plays ytd 9-3 75%
Service plays posted ytd 3-1 75%

Well now that you are documenting the season, make sure you give us your final decision here.

Not talking shit, here, just for fun, I'll go $ 100 you don't end up + units (@ 1.10) for the 17 weeks/ plus playoffs?
You'd need to go 52.5 %. Minimum 5 plays a weekend during the season.

I have 9-3, so + 5.7 units for now.
If you like some games better you can go 2 units on those.

Not sure how many times I have to tell you but 5 plays is to many. I bet what I like not just because someone says I have to. When I was seriously betting for big amounts there were weks that Id have 1 play maybe. If you want to do like $500 you bet against me 5 games a week and have Druff escrow im down, but Im not going to worry about finding 5 plays a week just to win $5 a week if you decide to pay me.

[ShadyJ]

I unloaded on ATL-7 even money earlier in the week, and the line is the same on Bovada but you might get 6.5 some places. This is free money. Trust me this is free money.

i have to say i was very upset w/ atl last week. i had them on the ML

The only time I make moneyline bets is when I also take the points like I did last week with Buffalo and Zona.

[gut]

taking an o/u parlay flyer this week with:

cle/bal u43.5
mn/chi o41.5
det/az o47.5

[ThreeBet]

I dont really follow services that much in NFL, because I just like to play my own plays. Week 1 overload
Buff +10
Buff +375 just a feeling
SF-4Top play I bought it to -4
Zona +4.5
Zona +185
Seattle -3.5
Seattle under 45
Minny +5.5
NO-3
Indy -10 This should be a route
No/Atl over 54 Im playing every Saints game over this year regardless of the line
Cincy +3 they could set a record for sacks in a game
Dallas -3
SD +4

NFL Posted plays ytd 9-3 75%
Service plays posted ytd 3-1 75%

How are you "9-3" When you have 5 loses in the post above?

[ThreeBet]

Ras plays so far Im sure there will be alot more by saturday. 4-5 ytd since I started tracking
123 b green ov 61
161 ball st under 63-
177 kansas over 57-
193 wisc over 52

Why are you tracking them when they have have tracked themselves for like the last 15 years?

[ThreeBet]

LOL Nice Tilt

[ShadyJ]

ignored

[ShadyJ]

Where the action is: Bettors fading injured Patriots

What was supposed to be a sure thing for the New England Patriots is looking less and less like an easy win, when the beleaguered Pats host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

New England suffered through an awful offseason and nearly got knocked off in the opener versus Buffalo. Now, the Patriots are down two offensive weapons – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola - and the betting public is showing their lack of faith in New England.

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on this AFC East rivalry and where they expect the odds to close come kickoff Thursday night:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12, Move: -13.5, Move: -11

Both the Jets and Patriots picked up wins in Week 1 but only one of those victories is being seen as a positive. Oddsmakers opened New England as a 12-point favorite after narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of the Bills and early money moved that spread just under two touchdowns.

However, once injury news got out on Vereen and Amendola, New York bettors came out of the shadows and trimmed this line as many as 2.5 points. New England is already missing many key weapons and will need its unknown skill players to step up on the big stage.

“As expected the money kept on coming for the Jets with the line shifting to 11.5, which has slowed the bettors down,” Russ Candler, head of trading at UWin.com told Covers. “It might not be enough for the line to hold at 11.5 and we’re certain the line will go off around the -11 mark. The early morning money will have a big say on the final number.”

The total has also shrunk in the past day, dropping as low as 42.5 after opening as high as 44.5 points. Both the Jets and Patriots played under the number in their Week 1 contests, however, New England boasted the fast-paced offense and was the best over bet in the NFL last season, going 11-5 over/under.

“After it was announced Danny Amendola wouldn’t play, the total dropped to 43.5 with 68 percent still on over,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com told Covers.

"The punters have attacked the point totals, taking the overs. Shoot out here we come," says Candler.

The Patriots are seeing the majority of action on the moneyline, even more so after books trimmed their straight-up price from as high as -750 to -588. According to Sportsbook.com, 88 percent of moneyline wagers are on New England.

[ShadyJ]

Ras plays so far Im sure there will be alot more by saturday. 4-5 ytd since I started tracking
123 b green ov 61
161 ball st under 63-
177 kansas over 57-
193 wisc over 52

Why are you tracking them when they have have tracked themselves for like the last 15 years?

Seriously when are you going to post some useful info in the thread? Go away troll

[ShadyJ]

LOL Nice Tilt

Im sure no one wants to deal with this shit in threads that they go to do either give out info or get info. Get a life. You dont bet on sports so troll me in other threads if that makes your pitiful existence feel more relevant.

[Daly]

Where the action is: Bettors fading injured Patriots

What was supposed to be a sure thing for the New England Patriots is looking less and less like an easy win, when the beleaguered Pats host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

New England suffered through an awful offseason and nearly got knocked off in the opener versus Buffalo. Now, the Patriots are down two offensive weapons – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola - and the betting public is showing their lack of faith in New England.

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on this AFC East rivalry and where they expect the odds to close come kickoff Thursday night:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12, Move: -13.5, Move: -11

Both the Jets and Patriots picked up wins in Week 1 but only one of those victories is being seen as a positive. Oddsmakers opened New England as a 12-point favorite after narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of the Bills and early money moved that spread just under two touchdowns.

However, once injury news got out on Vereen and Amendola, New York bettors came out of the shadows and trimmed this line as many as 2.5 points. New England is already missing many key weapons and will need its unknown skill players to step up on the big stage.

“As expected the money kept on coming for the Jets with the line shifting to 11.5, which has slowed the bettors down,” Russ Candler, head of trading at UWin.com told Covers. “It might not be enough for the line to hold at 11.5 and we’re certain the line will go off around the -11 mark. The early morning money will have a big say on the final number.”

The total has also shrunk in the past day, dropping as low as 42.5 after opening as high as 44.5 points. Both the Jets and Patriots played under the number in their Week 1 contests, however, New England boasted the fast-paced offense and was the best over bet in the NFL last season, going 11-5 over/under.

“After it was announced Danny Amendola wouldn’t play, the total dropped to 43.5 with 68 percent still on over,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com told Covers.

"The punters have attacked the point totals, taking the overs. Shoot out here we come," says Candler.

The Patriots are seeing the majority of action on the moneyline, even more so after books trimmed their straight-up price from as high as -750 to -588. According to Sportsbook.com, 88 percent of moneyline wagers are on New England.

Shady - these "industry articles" are great. Please keep posting them.

[ShadyJ]

NFL Week 2 odds have been up since late Sunday night, leaving plenty of time for sharp and public money to move those numbers. We talk to sportsbooks about their recent adjustments in our NFL mid-week line report:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12.5, Move: -13, Move: -12

Books kept this AFC North rivalry under two touchdowns, with the Jets winning in Week 1 and the Patriots barely getting by the Bills. Early action jumped on New England at the lower spread but as injury news crept out of Foxborough – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola – bettors began to side with New York, forcing the current spread of Pats -12.

“Obviously the Pats are a public team, but with so much bad PR during the offseason as well as a rash of injuries and a list of receivers that nobody's heard of, the Patriots are not getting the kind of public action we're used to seeing,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “As more and more money is starting to show on the Jets, I wouldn't be surprised if we go to 11.5 at some point today or first thing tomorrow.”

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5, Move: -7.5

This spread has been chased all over the board with some books opening low and going high, and others opening high and getting bet down low. Any spots that opened the Eagles -7.5 took early money on the home side and were bet up as many as two points before buy back on the Bolts returned the line to its original post.

According to Russ Candler, head of trading for UWin.com, the most popular bet has been Philadelphia on the moneyline. The Eagles are currently priced at -333 to win straight up in their home opener Sunday.

“Bettors are betting on the Eagles as fast as Chip Kelly’s offense moves down the field,” Candler tells Covers. “That’s all come on the money line because -7.5 doesn’t look too juicy, especially after opening up at a crazy -9.5. Michael Vick still can’t be trusted.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders – Open: -5.5, Move: -6, Move: -5

This could be the worst game on paper for the 2013 NFL season. The Jaguars mustered only two points on a safety in Week 1 while the Raiders nearly knocked off the Colts, sparked by the crazy legs of QB Terrelle Pryor. Bettors have been hot and cold on Oakland as home favorite giving this many points - even if it is to Jacksonville.

“If things go as expected, Oakland won’t be giving this many points for the rest of the year at home, but as it’s Jacksonville, they have to be a fave,” Aron Black of bet365.com tells Covers. “This line will probably go back towards Oakland, as there are more reasons to like them then there are the Jaguars. Early money is light on this one, but I expect us to be looking for a Jacksonville cover come Sunday.”

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some shops opened this game at Chiefs -1 after Dallas beat New York on Sunday Night Football. That’s been quickly bet up to a field goal. Bettors are impressed with new-look Kansas City, even if its Week 1 victory came courtesy of the lowly Jaguars. However, the oddmakers aren’t overly sold on K.C.

“We don’t care that (Tony) Romo and (Dez) Bryant are banged up for the Cowboys because at UWin we do not believe in Alex Smith,” says Candler. “The Cowboys against ‘Mr Check Down’ with a 2.5-point lead at +105? No contest here.”

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

Most books opened this game at a pick’em, putting some stock into the Cardinals and the new QB-WR combo of Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, which combined for two scores in Week 1’s loss to the Rams. But this spread is swinging toward the road side, going as high as Detroit -2, and a lot of bettors are skipping the spread and taking the Lions’ moneyline odds.

“This line could go either way as we near the weekend, but should stay somewhat around a pick’em or slightly favor Detroit,” says Black. “This line has touched -2 during the last couple of days, but for the moneyline move only.”

Denver Broncos at New York Giants – Open: +2.5, Move: +6, Move: +4

After the Sunday night fiasco against the Cowboys, early public money took the 2.5-point spread all the way up as many as three and a half points before sharp New York action trimmed the line to as low as Denver -4 at some markets. The Giants, despite massive turnover troubles and zero rushing attack, still hung around to scare Dallas in Week 1.

“Even though we've seen 65 percent of the total action on the Broncos, we respect the early sharp money on the Giants and if anything, I could see us going to 5 or even 4.5. We won't be going back to-6,” says Stewart

[ShadyJ]

Imagine the New York Jets making their annual Foxboro invasion of Foxboro with a 1-0 record and taking on the 0-1 New England Patriots?

Only a New England field goal in the final seconds in Buffalo separated that scenario from reality, and when the teams take the field at Gillette Stadium in Thursday night, both will be 1-0 on the year.

But those 1-0's could just as easily be 0-1's, since both the Patriots and Jets are thanking their lucky stars after each executed a "Great Escape" in their respective openers on Sunday.

New England was headed for its first loss to Buffalo since seemingly the Woodrow Wilson Administration, after being victimized by a Tom Brady interception and a few fumbles. The Bills held a 21-20 lead, and were actually starting to believe in miracles when the Pats got control of the ball in the final two minutes. Brady and the ailing Danny Amendola decided that enough was enough, marching New England into field goal position for the dagger that just about everyone, except the Bills and their fans, knew was coming.

A win is a win is a win, but no one in the Pats entourage was smiling as they left Buffalo to prepare for the Jets.

Maybe watching the Jets-Buccaneers game film perked up Bill Belichick a bit, because the Jets were hardly a reincarnation of the mid-1980s Chicago Bears.

Rex Ryan was smiling and doling out praise like candy on Halloween after the NYJ’s 18-17 victory over the Buccaneers. Of course, he was conveniently forgetting to mention that Nick Folk would not have been able to kick the 48-yard game-winner if Tampa Bay linebacker Lavonte David had not had a brain fart by committing a personal foul to put the Jets in field goal range. Also, Jets’ running backs only rushed for 43 yards in 23 carries. Not good at all.

Geno Smith (24 for 38 and 256 yards) probably will keep the starting job for New York until he screws up, which will be Thursday night around 8:30 p.m. Eastern time if the oddsmakers are correct. New England opened at -12.5 and the line almost immediately jumped to 13. Even at nearly two TDs, the early money has been on the Pats to cruise at home and beat the Jets like a drum – the same way they did in their previous meeting last Thanksgiving in a 49-19 rout.

Bettors should be wary of big numbers with New England this season. It was clear from the Buffalo game that the kid receivers on the Patriots are nowhere near in sync with Brady yet. Three rookies were targeted 17 times, with only four catches on the day. With Amendola still not at 100 percent, covering 13 could be as problematic as going over the 44 total.

This is an interesting game on the radar; just don’t expect any fireworks

[ShadyJ]

Thursday Night Football betting: Jets at Patriots

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12, 43)

The New England Patriots and New York Jets are each coming off last-second wins in their season openers, but the level of satisfaction on both sides was markedly different. The Jets eked out a one-point victory over Tampa Bay in quarterback Geno Smith's NFL debut and will look to carry that momentum into their showdown with the host Patriots on Thursday night. New England blew a 10-point lead and needed a late comeback from Tom Brady to overcome upset-minded Buffalo.

The Patriots have won the last four meetings, including a 49-19 thumping of the Jets on Thanksgiving night last year - a game remembered for the infamous "butt fumble" by New York quarterback Mark Sanchez. Smith will get his second start while Sanchez seeks a second opinion on his injured right shoulder from renowned orthopedist Dr. James Andrews. Brady and New England's overhauled receiving corps struggled in the opener and the team could be further depleted by injury for Thursday's matchup.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

WEATHER: There is a 49 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures in the low 70s. Winds blowing south at 8 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: New York (+6.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -14

LINE: The Patriots opened at -13 and were as high as -14 before injury news forced money on New York and moved the spread to as low as -12. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0, 1-0 ATS): Smith was far from perfect in his debut but he etched his name into the record books by becoming the first rookie quarterback drafted in the second round or later since the 1970 merger to throw for at least 250 yards and win a season opener. Smith finished 24-for-38 for 256 yards with a fumble and interception, but he got the team in position for the decisive field goal in the final 34 seconds - albeit with the help of a Tampa Bay penalty. New York's defense - the calling card of coach Rex Ryan during his tenure - limited the Buccaneers to 250 yards of offense but the Jets' running game was non-existent, with Smith leading the way with 47 yards.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-0, 0-1 ATS): New England got bad news on the injury front Monday when it was reported that running back Shane Vereen will require surgery for a broken wrist and will be out a few weeks. Vereen was the only running back in the NFL to surpass 100 yards on Sunday and added seven catches for 58 yards after replacing Stevan Ridley, who was benched due to a pair of fumbles. Wideout Danny Amendola was Brady's favorite target with 10 catches for 104 yards, but he aggravated a groin injury during the win and his status is uncertain. In addition, rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld, the team's training camp sensation, is not expected to play due to a pulled hamstring.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
* Over is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Road team is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
* Over is 16-5 in Patriots' last 21 vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady has thrown a touchdown pass in 49 consecutive games, five shy of Drew Brees' NFL record.

2. Jets WR Santonio Holmes, a former Super Bowl MVP, had one catch for 13 yards in his first action since suffering a Lisfranc foot injury in Week 4 last season.

3. The Jets on Monday re-signed QB Brady Quinn, a former first-round pick, to serve as Smith's backup

[Daly]

I'm going with a parlay Troy over and Texas Tech over.

Peavy Under 4.5K's Even
Greinke Over 5.5K's -145

[mulva]

“We don’t care that (Tony) Romo and (Dez) Bryant are banged up for the Cowboys because at UWin they're the 2 most overrated players in the NFL,” says Candler. “The Cheifs against ‘Mr Failboat ’ with a 2.5-point lead at -105? No contest here.”

fixed.