Risk of Ruin Reached

[Sheesfaced]

Question, Gayjami. Getting paid 7/5 while flat betting coin flips (assuming a fair coin) is a 20% edge because you average winning one for every one you lose. So if you were making 1000 flips per day at this game for a year....how many losing days would you expect to have?

I forgot to answer this question....and it is obvious Gayjami doesn't have the wherewithal to answer it.

The chance of being in the red after 1000 flips when getting paid 7/5 is about 7 quintillion to one. So it is about 19 quadrillion to 1 to have a losing day in 365 days of play.

Although the math is a little more elaborate on machines the result is about the same as flipping coins. When you work short term 20% edges you just don't have many losing days. Damn near impossible to have a losing month.

Mickey with all due respect this is straight retarded.

A coin flip is a two true outcome event. That drastically minimizes variance. The machines that have you mashing buttons like a monkey and have given you carpal tunnel and led you to a sedentary wheel chair bound life are not two true outcome events. A video progressive poker machine for example can be +EV due to a jackpot that is well above the needed amount to be profitable but you could play it for hours and hours and never realize said equity.

It doesn’t take a statistics major to see the flaw in your argument. Hell I bet even Garrett would recognize it.