Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[go_buccos]

Above were the opening Pinny odds on 9/12/2024 for each battleground state. Current Pinny odds below:

EC Winner: Trump -177, Harris +150
Arizona: Trump -260
Florida: Trump -1870
Georgia: Trump -243
Maine: OFF
Michigan TIE -110
Nevada: Harris -115
New Hampshire: Harris -700
North Carolina: Trump -208
PA: Trump -143
Texas: Trump -2225
Virginia: Harris -680
Wisconsin: Trump -123

Popular vote winner: (just added) Harris -252

The above update was from 10/17.

11/4 Pinny update/comparison as of 6:30 PM CST:

EC Winner: Trump -162/Harris +141

Popular Vote: Trump +271/Harris -326

Arizona: Trump -339
Florida: Trump -2500
Georgia: Trump -211
Iowa: (just added) Trump -605
Michigan: Harris -205
Nevada: Trump -135
New Hampshire: Harris -534
North Carolina: Trump -226
Pennsylvania: Trump -131
Virginia: Harris -1206
Wisconsin: Harris -147

Some other markets just added:

Democrat total states won: 21.5 O -162
Republican total states won: 29.5 U -194

Trump wins BOTH MI and PA: +245
Trump wins BOTH MI and WI: +259
Harris scoops Rust Belt: (PA/MI/WI) +156
Trump scoops AZ/NV/NC/GA: +115
Trump scoops all 7 battlegrounds: +386

Harris OVER 51.999% popular vote: +150

Record turnout according to uselectionatlas.org: YES -172

County markets:

Bucks, PA: Harris -228
Clark, NV (Vegas) OFF
Erie, PA: Trump -142
Kent, MI: (Grand Rapids) Harris -230
Macomb, MI: (Detroit burbs) OFF
Maricopa, AZ: (Phoenix) Harris -121
Pinellas, FL: (Tampa Bay) Trump -331

Values as I see them at these prices:

MONSTER value: (3 units each)

Trump -605 in Iowa. (It opened yesterday something like -408 so best value already gone. That poll was complete quackery. I would bet it up to -900)
Trump -135 in Nevada. (Jon Ralston knows his shit and he's pretty much called it for Trump already)
Harris +184 in North Carolina (That asshat tranny-loving GOP guv candidate has a legit chance to cost him the entire state)

Solid value: (2 units each)

Trump popular vote +271
Trump +837 in Virginia
Trump to scoop NC/NV/AZ/GA: NO -139. (See above)
Record turnout YES -172

Thin value: (1 unit each)

Harris EC Winner +141
Trump +121 in Wisconsin
Trump +167 in Michigan
Harris scoops PA/WI/MI: YES +156
Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds: NO -501 (again this is mostly due to the NC situation)

Really not sure why the market has moved so heavily for Harris in Michigan in the last week. It was -110/-110 a few days ago.

Gonna be a VERY interesting day tomorrow.

Good luck to all who have wagered.

Results:

Monster: 2-1, +3u
Solid: 1-3, -2.8u
Thin: 2-3, -4.54u

Total: 5-7, -4.34u

Not great.

[Dan Druff]

So guess what?

My "dead" bet of Trump 1.5-2 Point Win in PA, which I couldn't unload for 17c last night (except 300 shares, out of my 4800 or so), is now highly likely to win.

Trump quietly fell from a 3 point lead to 1.9 point lead overnight and this morning. That will be almost a $5k swing for me if it holds.

Considering unloading it (if I can) for 88c.

Some guy put in a bid at 25,000 shares for 0.5c each ($125) and it vanished. Not sure if it sold or if he just gave up and withdrew. I considered doing this myself before I went to sleep. At least I was smart enough to take my positions off sale at the end of the show, saying that I see it trending that way and I don't want to have my shares disappear while I'm sleeping for 17c.

Not an active market though, so I probably can't unload.

[big dick]

The above update was from 10/17.

11/4 Pinny update/comparison as of 6:30 PM CST:

EC Winner: Trump -162/Harris +141

Popular Vote: Trump +271/Harris -326

Arizona: Trump -339
Florida: Trump -2500
Georgia: Trump -211
Iowa: (just added) Trump -605
Michigan: Harris -205
Nevada: Trump -135
New Hampshire: Harris -534
North Carolina: Trump -226
Pennsylvania: Trump -131
Virginia: Harris -1206
Wisconsin: Harris -147

Some other markets just added:

Democrat total states won: 21.5 O -162
Republican total states won: 29.5 U -194

Trump wins BOTH MI and PA: +245
Trump wins BOTH MI and WI: +259
Harris scoops Rust Belt: (PA/MI/WI) +156
Trump scoops AZ/NV/NC/GA: +115
Trump scoops all 7 battlegrounds: +386

Harris OVER 51.999% popular vote: +150

Record turnout according to uselectionatlas.org: YES -172

County markets:

Bucks, PA: Harris -228
Clark, NV (Vegas) OFF
Erie, PA: Trump -142
Kent, MI: (Grand Rapids) Harris -230
Macomb, MI: (Detroit burbs) OFF
Maricopa, AZ: (Phoenix) Harris -121
Pinellas, FL: (Tampa Bay) Trump -331

Values as I see them at these prices:

MONSTER value: (3 units each)

Trump -605 in Iowa. (It opened yesterday something like -408 so best value already gone. That poll was complete quackery. I would bet it up to -900)
Trump -135 in Nevada. (Jon Ralston knows his shit and he's pretty much called it for Trump already)
Harris +184 in North Carolina (That asshat tranny-loving GOP guv candidate has a legit chance to cost him the entire state)

Solid value: (2 units each)

Trump popular vote +271
Trump +837 in Virginia
Trump to scoop NC/NV/AZ/GA: NO -139. (See above)
Record turnout YES -172

Thin value: (1 unit each)

Harris EC Winner +141
Trump +121 in Wisconsin
Trump +167 in Michigan
Harris scoops PA/WI/MI: YES +156
Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds: NO -501 (again this is mostly due to the NC situation)

Really not sure why the market has moved so heavily for Harris in Michigan in the last week. It was -110/-110 a few days ago.

Gonna be a VERY interesting day tomorrow.

Good luck to all who have wagered.

Results:

Monster: 2-1, +3u
Solid: 1-3, -2.8u
Thin: 2-3, -4.54u

Total: 5-7, -4.34u

Not great.

im still here fag. got something to say?


wtf you are laying 25/1 and 6/1 ? you called me a fish huh lol

why would anyone ever lay 25/1 on ANYTHING??


I GLANCED AT YOUR POST THEN RE-READ

okay you didnt lay 25/1

my bad

[VaughnP]

Betting markets have started trending back towards Trump. If you were planning on waiting for better odds, it seriously might not happen. Normally a convention bounce even for terrible candidates is a given, but with this clusterfuck it's not.

These polls from a couple weeks ago are from the most accurate pollster in 2020 - even they still had a liberal bias of around 2 points on average. The only ones that came even close were Trafalgar and the TIPP polls. Reading through the bias of the latest polls still has the math come out to the same thing as these - Trump is very likely polling ahead of her in the popular vote by somewhere around 1.5 points.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/atlas_intel/status/1817307787761737763

This was in August before they were even given any credit on X.

Guess who the most accurate pollster turned out to be again?

[Orko]

There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.

Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.

Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.

The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?

It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.

Yep they can rig it when they want to. Nobody liked Biden. Bernie was crushing him.

[mickeycrimm]

There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.

Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.

Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.

The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?

It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.

There isnt much of a mystery here.

in 2020 Biden voters were people were concerned about Trump, hated Covid and wanted a change.
This time around Covid is effectively gone, between 15-18 million* young people didnt vote, didnt like the idea of Harris, and werent as concerned about how things are going.


Harris did not engage younger voters particularly well, so they stayed home.
Tim Walz was a reasonable enough choice but didnt shine as such.

The Democrats needed to change horse much earier, in a clearer manner, pick someone who appeared younger than Walz and engage much better.


*From the initial information I have seen, this may change.

The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.

[BCR]

There isnt much of a mystery here.

in 2020 Biden voters were people were concerned about Trump, hated Covid and wanted a change.
This time around Covid is effectively gone, between 15-18 million* young people didnt vote, didnt like the idea of Harris, and werent as concerned about how things are going.


Harris did not engage younger voters particularly well, so they stayed home.
Tim Walz was a reasonable enough choice but didnt shine as such.

The Democrats needed to change horse much earier, in a clearer manner, pick someone who appeared younger than Walz and engage much better.


*From the initial information I have seen, this may change.

The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.

What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

Take the win.

[sonatine]

The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.

What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

Take the win.

bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.

[splitthis]

Libbrains need to get that we will not rest until the 2020 ballot scam is exposed.

To bcr it’s spelled MORENO. ROFL.

To fattie, go get a snack, we will not rest.

[BCR]

Libbrains need to get that we will not rest until the 2020 ballot scam is exposed.

To bcr it’s spelled MORENO. ROFL.

To fattie, go get a snack, we will not rest.

Greasy car salesmen. I have never met someone who owned a car dealership who wasn’t wholly corrupt. Truly the only result that bothered me, though it was predictable .

[mickeycrimm]

What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

Take the win.

bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.

It’s no wonder you are a failed gambler, sonatard. You can’t do fucking math.

[sonatine]

bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


please, show me your election results.