Less than 48 hours before the election. I'm still shopping but I have my core positions set up. Wish I coulda got kam popular vote when it was at the low point, but I didn't have $ on at the time. Ended up heavy on kamdog regardless. As long as she wins the popular vote I'll be good.
Posting for transparency so I can brag afterwards or be mocked. GL to all on their bets (even the French)!
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x593...d94Cc24408FE84
The Coalition4Reason is BACK
I see in the comments there is some crazy guy buying up everything Trump again. Comments he may surpass the French dude. You get any piece of that?
Looks like it's this dude:
https://polymarket.com/profile/0xd23...01728c520b0f29
Has about $13m on Trump right now
Originally Posted by PLOL
https://twitter.com/parsec_finance/status/1853345338792484918
https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/1853341159424475304
Think my favorite thing about him is he bet $13,000,000 on Trump to win, and $10 for their to not be another debate
Crazy he's pushing 13 million all just on one market. Seems too late to try to influence shit. A pure degen. Average .62. Going to be an interesting election night for these guys. What price makes you buy more Kamala yes?
Looks like degen or insider behavior. Might have access to Trump's team given he tried to bet on no second debate although he was only able to get $10 booked at his limit order.
Occam's razor is that it's just a degen.
I posted this in one of the other 37 election threads by accident.
In sports betting we are offered a “cash out button” on legal sites. Domer doesn’t appear to cash out larger bets where he necessarily has greater edge (certainty). He holds til resolution. He’ll cash out a small GUT bet.
Domer is a smart and interesting cat.
I thought this reference to Kanneman and Tversky in a Domer interview fascinating. I’ve written about “The Undoing Project” by Michael Lewis over the years here. It was “Thinking Fast and Slow” for dummies. I still try to integrate their ideas in my life. Domer claims he thinks about Kahnemann and Tversky every day
Q:I see you listed a Kahneman book on your recommended books list - heuristics, psychology of risk/loss aversion and dual-system thinking all play a large part in betting. What do you think DK would’ve thought about Polymarket? Do any of his teachings seem to constantly find their way to the forefront of your mind?
Domer: "I think about the biases that Kahneman and Tversky wrote about on a daily basis, and I am not exaggerating. Their discoveries were simplistic - and in some ways a bit obvious - but they are also deeply profound. Just some of the things that I think about – Price anchoring. Endowment effect. Loss-aversion. Availability bias. There are a lot more. If you want to be a top level trader or bettor at anything, you should have more than a passing understanding of the biases that are trying to control your brain.
Daniel Kahnemann would love Polymarket. He was an advocate for prediction markets.
Highly recommend the Undoing Project. It is what can be called a gamblers bible. I promise it is a fun read - especially for a guy like you, Plop. The truth is it’s a love story
I just finished the audiobook version. Truly excellent. I just ordered a physical copy because I was listening often while driving and this thing is meant more as a textbook to keep and reference. As a gut guy, I needed this.
I would never absorb the ideas offered via audiobook. I am not smart enough. I had to reread several times.
I just finished the audiobook version. Truly excellent. I just ordered a physical copy because I was listening often while driving and this thing is meant more as a textbook to keep and reference. As a gut guy, I needed this.
The personalities and life stories are simply fantastic. Audio probably was great there. Kahnneman hiding in a chicken coop from the Nazis as a kid watching his father die from untreated diabetes. How that colored his adult experience.
Tversky. People instantly recognized he was the smartest person in the room at parties. But he was fun and social. The Tversky Test: The faster you realized Tversky was smarter than you, the smarter you were.
Tversky never read his mail. Sounds like Druff.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1853818243003125934
surprise, he's retarded.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Yeah the father part was crazy. You’ll have to be the man now and died the next day.I would never absorb the ideas offered via audiobook. I am not smart enough. I had to reread several times.
I just finished the audiobook version. Truly excellent. I just ordered a physical copy because I was listening often while driving and this thing is meant more as a textbook to keep and reference. As a gut guy, I needed this.
The personalities and life stories are simply fantastic. Audio probably was great there. Kahnneman hiding in a chicken coop from the Nazis as a kid watching his father die from untreated diabetes. How that colored his adult experience.
Tversky. People instantly recognized he was the smartest person in the room at parties. But he was fun and social. The Tversky Test: The faster you realized Tversky was smarter than you, the smarter you were.
Tversky never read his mail. Sounds like Druff.
I think I have the mail avoidance gene. Anything important is done online now though. Not then. The loading more on a table until the oldest slides off though felt familiar to me.
I have unopened mail by the stacks all the time. My ADD brain. I end up with a leaf bag just filling it with shit. You better catch my attention with the outside of the envelope or it isn’t getting opened.
The anchoring/priming part. How important last impressions of anything are. Availability heuristics. I need the book to really delve into those areas more because they fascinated me, but you need to have the physical book.
Here's the ideal scenario for me, betting-wise:
- Trump wins PA by 0-1% vote
- Trump wins Nevada
- Trump wins by 1-4 electoral votes
- Trump loses popular vote, but wins election
- Trump does not take credit for winning before AP calls it
However, I also have various Kamala hedges. For example, if Kamala wins, but GOP wins House & Senate, she sweeps all swing states, and she wins by less than 2% in PA, I'll also do very well, even if all the above loses.
1 is not likely
2 also not likely
5 def not likely
You don't know what you're talking about. He's a favorite to win Nevada, though a small one.1 is not likely
2 also not likely
5 def not likely
Trump (or Kamala) winning by less than 1% is VERY possible. All data shows PA is close.
Trump probably won't prematurely take credit if he is looking good to win. He will probably only do that if he's on the path to losing. If he's sitting pretty, he will probably sit back, make cryptic remarks, and wait for the full results to come in. Regardless, I got a good underdog line on this, so it's a good bet. PLOP put me onto that one.
umm you are the one who does not know what he is talking aboutYou don't know what you're talking about. He's a favorite to win Nevada, though a small one.
Trump (or Kamala) winning by less than 1% is VERY possible. All data shows PA is close.
Trump probably won't prematurely take credit if he is looking good to win. He will probably only do that if he's on the path to losing. If he's sitting pretty, he will probably sit back, make cryptic remarks, and wait for the full results to come in. Regardless, I got a good underdog line on this, so it's a good bet. PLOP put me onto that one.
good thing we will see who is correct soon enough
oh look at this
trump planning on 'talking" tonight
i wonder what hes gonna say??? youre already wrong
Trump is preparing to speak tonight, aides say
From CNN's Kaitlan Collins
Former President Donald Trump plans to address several thousand supporters who are gathering at the Palm Beach Convention Center a few miles away from his Mar-a-Lago club at some point this evening, sources familiar with his plans told CNN, though when — and whether — that ultimately happens remains to be seen.
Trump told reporters earlier he wasn’t sure of his plans and that no speech had been written. But sources say they do expect him to speak regardless of whether an outcome has been determined and can quickly put one together.
Trump has privately expressed exasperation at the notion that a victor won’t be declared tonight. Most of his campaign advisers have cautioned that it’s unlikely they will know who won tonight as the votes are still being counted. Whether he claims victory as ballots are still being counted — as he did falsely in 2020 — remains to be seen, even to his closest aides.
How does someone who played winning NL holdem cash for so many years not understand the value of +EV underdog bets?
I wouldn't have bet most of these if they were +100 or worse. But when they're big or medium dogs, there is great value if I think it's closer to 50/50 whether they happen.
im loaded up on + money bets
I rarely bet the favorite unless i have a really good reason to
like Biden winning in 2020 for instance although i managed to get a lot of money down on him with + money before he turned into a -185 favorite
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