Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[tgull]

The Selzer poll is more than fishy. There's obviously tons of data that people are more likely to show up to the polls when they think their candidate will win.

There has been a coordinated effort to take him down in every way possible; the midwestern boomer with the stellar polling track record in an inconsequential state whose data can be extrapolated for the rest of the rust belt is the perfect target. I find it hard to believe someone with such a good track record would get so lazy & produce such a terrible poll days before the election. She's either Nostradamus and Trump loses every swing state or she's in the tank for the Democrats. There's no middle ground.

NYT basically acknowledged their final poll was shit but it goes along with the same message that Kamala will win.

I agree, Ann went into the tank before she retires. You can't have a 19 point Trump Iowa advantage in July, then it goes to -3 the days before the election. You would have seen a seismic shift nationally. NBC has it 48-48 this morning. It just makes no sense. Good thing is we find out in a couple days. This just reminds me of the +17 Biden in WI in 2020.

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/TheHoustonWade/status/1852935336361676805

[lol wow]

this is pretty good

[PLOL]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/TheHoustonWade/status/1852935336361676805

lol why were so many people leaving?

[tgull]

This is the final NYT, Registered Voters, not Likely Voters:

#NEW FINAL battleground polls - full ballot 🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+5 🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+2 🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+1 🔴 GEORGIA: Trump+1 🔵 NEVADA: Harris+3 🔵 WISCONSIN: Harris+3 🔵 NORTH CAROLINA: Harris+4 Electoral College: 🔴 Trump: 280 🏆 🔵 Harris: 258 NYT/Siena | 10/25-11/2 | RVs

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/TheHoustonWade/status/1852935336361676805

lol why were so many people leaving?

they wanted to make it home in time for matlock.

[tgull]

BREAKING: NYT pollster Nate Cohn announces white Republicans were not answering their polls nearly as much as Democrats - and says the polling miss could be similar to 2020

[PLOL]

Get the thread bomb PLOL to make your point. It's just not conceivable there is a 11 point swing in a lily white state from 2020 to 2024. Use common sense, Biden was down 19 points in July same pollster. This reminds me of ABC poll the week of the election showing Biden up by 17 in Wisky. Also, Selzer 'retires' after this election, who know what payroll she will be on.

I don't think Kam wins Iowa, and I'm not betting on it.

Though at 77 cents for Trump, there's better "locks" you could be buying. And at 23 cents for Kam, there's better "lottos" you could be buying. PASSING.

[lol wow]

alright guys hold up here like he got neg repped but sonatine is making home in time for matlock references can we stand and boo this man who is legitimately 59 years old apparently

[lol wow]

yall nigs know he wasnt talking about the new kathy bates one either what an utterly preposterous statement by this man

[Dan Druff]

Anyone looking to bet on Trump on Polymarket... don't bet him as a favorite.

Go bet the market "Which party wins Presidency + popular vote?"

https://polymarket.com/event/which-p...the-presidency

Then select R Presidency. D Popular vote

The last time a Republican won the popular vote was GW Bush in 2004, when the blue states were blowing out Republicans to a lesser degree than today.

This is the equivalent of a +233 bet (30c on Polymarket last I checked), and honestly if Trump wins, it's not very likely he takes the popular vote.

[tgull]

Get the thread bomb PLOL to make your point. It's just not conceivable there is a 11 point swing in a lily white state from 2020 to 2024. Use common sense, Biden was down 19 points in July same pollster. This reminds me of ABC poll the week of the election showing Biden up by 17 in Wisky. Also, Selzer 'retires' after this election, who know what payroll she will be on.

I don't think Kam wins Iowa, and I'm not betting on it.

Though at 77 cents for Trump, there's better "locks" you could be buying. And at 23 cents for Kam, there's better "lottos" you could be buying. PASSING.

Well, I am done betting on this election. $9500 on Trump is my limit. Just ready to get to 2025 and get back in the stock market. I am out of the market until January to avoid hitting the 37% tax bracket. Between this and Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em in the casino (which has been friendly to me), I just am looking to get back to more conventional ways to gamble, I just prefer biotech stocks.

[Walter Sobchak]

yall nigs know he wasnt talking about the new kathy bates one either what an utterly preposterous statement by this man

I assumed it was a Simpsons reference.

[lol wow]

a show that also came out 40 years go would be in his wheelhouse

[sonatine]

[tgull]

I am closing down this thread. Polls now are irrelevant given the election is Tuesday. I am starting a new thread for Election Day. I want to thank those that made this the most viewed and participated thread of the year. It cements my standing now as the #1 PFA poster, although Tine is right there as well. Unfortunately Tyde is forever banned, but I probably would have overtaken him anyway.

Thanks you PFA! We move on from here.

[VaughnP]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1853043305988174180

Here is Nate Cohn, the smarter of the two Nate polltard Jews, giving the public the equivalent of the secret domestic abuse victim signal for police. He's done this three times that I know of when the results don't match the overall work. At least the guy has some integrity. The sunbelt polls are clearly fake.

[Walter Sobchak]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1853043305988174180

Here is Nate Cohn, the smarter of the two Nate polltard Jews, giving the public the equivalent of the secret domestic abuse victim signal for police. He's done this three times that I know of when the results don't match the overall work. At least the guy has some integrity. The sunbelt polls are clearly fake.

That isn’t even remotely what Cohn was saying. You can read the whole post here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/u...sultPosition=1

He said it’s possible no response bias is a factor but also said “we do a lot to correct for that.” And he identified it as only one of the possible factors that could result in surprises. The retard who posted that one excerpt on Twatter completely misrepresented the message of the article. Not surprising for Republicans.

[Walter Sobchak]

I am closing down this thread. Polls now are irrelevant given the election is Tuesday. I am starting a new thread for Election Day. I want to thank those that made this the most viewed and participated thread of the year. It cements my standing now as the #1 PFA poster, although Tine is right there as well. Unfortunately Tyde is forever banned, but I probably would have overtaken him anyway.

Thanks you PFA! We move on from here.

Obviously I missed it. Why was Tyde permabanned? And what’s the over/under on how long until he is unbanned?

[BetCheckBet]

I am closing down this thread. Polls now are irrelevant given the election is Tuesday. I am starting a new thread for Election Day. I want to thank those that made this the most viewed and participated thread of the year. It cements my standing now as the #1 PFA poster, although Tine is right there as well. Unfortunately Tyde is forever banned, but I probably would have overtaken him anyway.

Thanks you PFA! We move on from here.

Obviously I missed it. Why was Tyde permabanned? And what’s the over/under on how long until he is unbanned?

He was banned for selling counterfeit fast food coupons and 1star motel vouchers.