Originally Posted by VaughnP
siri what is 'furious'
siri what is 'furious'
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Not hardly. I just think it's sad how easily people fall for this. 100% the next step in that plan is to try and convince people the outlier poll is because of abortion and women being "furious". Refer to posts from yesterday. This is a coordinated Hail Mary turnout strategy.
siri what is 'furious'
I'm currently in Illinois, not far from Iowa and have spent time in Des Moines and the surrounding areas twice in the last few months. It's not happening.
https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852822121291866568
Don't worry guys, Kamala is winning Iowa by 3. She's got this.
Everything ok at home,VaughnP?
this is better than whatever netfix and hbo are cooking up
I'm not gonna lie, I went out and got super drunk and apparently my "Kamala Harris to go on SNL" hit at 32 to 1? $15 to win $500 lol. Literally only did it because I saw Domer bought some. Godspeed and god bless Ann Selzer
From yesterday before the fake poll:Not hardly. I just think it's sad how easily people fall for this. 100% the next step in that plan is to try and convince people the outlier poll is because of abortion and women being "furious". Refer to posts from yesterday. This is a coordinated Hail Mary turnout strategy.
It's seriously because many people are falling for the gender early voting narrative. Too predictable. It looked like up until just a few days ago she was on the path to capitulation and complete collapse in the betting markets into Monday and Tuesday, which still might happen, but the lesson I've learned here is to never underestimate the dishonesty of the left and their propaganda arm. I think you will see a coordinated effort to release even more fake polls from all the usual suspects and more and more of a push to try and make this an abortion issue election over the next few days. It doesn't change that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's all about turnout. Reading some of the recent posts in this thread is lol. Of course someone convinced Trump to drop the narrative ahead of actual Election Day that he is winning and it's "too big to rig" - the last thing any sane campaign manager wants is their candidate to make lower propensity voters think it's in the bag and not to go vote. Everything we are seeing on both sides is geared around increasing turnout. Kamala's turnout strategy is women and abortion, Trump's is centered around the correct "they are going to cheat, overwhelm them" strategy instead of "we're the 92 Cowboys" and can't lose. The difference in how well his campaign has been ran compared to hers is incredible. If Trump had the ability not to say stupid, inflammatory shit every other day for just a couple months this wouldn't have been even remotely close.
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1852855309208875098
https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1852878321236971743
https://twitter.com/KyleGarnerMO/status/1852860867668480188
https://twitter.com/chrisjollyhale/status/1852859388102389981
I was going to even predict they'd say it's older women since the younger and middle aged are the target of the op, but you don't have to believe me.
This message will funnel down through all of the paid shills, bot accounts, and useful idiots (human bots). Expect it as the main talking point spoken in every form of media for the next day or two.
This really does feel like a coordinated final message to get women out to vote in record numbers. The main point they'll focus on during the Sunday shows is how Kamala is crushing with independent and senior women. That is exactly the demographic that watches these Sunday shows.
Trump has had quite a few errors in the last week. Tony Hinchcliffe's joke, being more Greek than Giannis, whatever he was doing with the microphone, but the media has gone above and beyond to get Kamala elected.
I don't feel great about his chances, sadly. It will come down to PA & you can't underestimate the democrats ground game. It gives them 1-3%. I'd have her around 52-55% to win. Let's hope Trump finds a path to victory because our country is going to shit.
the real question is why are women and sonatines allowed to vote this doesnt happen in afghanistan right are they onto something?
What I have a hard time believing is the same Iowa pollster had Trump leading Biden by 19 before he dropped out. The abortion issue did not change, we will find out in two days. Regardless, whatever you personally feel about abortion, the SCOTUS decision on Roe was the single dumbest political decision of a lifetime. The sad thing is, the SCOTUS will be destroyed if Harris gets in and carries the House and Senate. Word is the Dems will increase the SC to 15 seats which will simply make it a legislative arm of the Dems. Then when the Republicans sweep in 4 or 8 years, it will get increased to 20 and so on, making it useless, I am surprised the founders missed this, putting a cap on the # of justices. Add in the incredible debt load that both sides created, you are going to see the US start to crumble.
This is the final poll I am posting, New York Times. The NYT polls absolutely bombed in 2020, having Biden up 8-10 in the rustbelt. One would assume they made changes, but who knows. These are a mixed bag for both candidates. The Nevada poll seems wildly off, we will see in two days.
Sunday, November 3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 48, Harris 48
Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Harris 47, Trump 47
Tie
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 49, Harris 45
Trump +4
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 46, Harris 49
Harris +3
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 47, Harris 48
Harris +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 46, Harris 48
Harris +2
Siena still the gold standard. And yes, pollsters make changes to methodology from cycle to cycle based on what they learned.
Weird seeing such a large Nevada/Arizona split.
Last edited by PLOL; 11-03-2024 at 06:58 AM.
This is interesting. Not predictive, but a fun watch on how networks prepare.
https://twitter.com/DiligentDenizen/status/1852876279651176866
SELZER ROUNDUP
https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1852851063449366698
https://twitter.com/BeshearStan/status/1852879957959315650
https://twitter.com/realOldTerry/status/1852881483137974748
https://twitter.com/Kalshi/status/1852890656504426652
https://twitter.com/BirdAppKJ/status/1852851336326336721
https://twitter.com/bebeckhardt/status/1852886642899533944
https://twitter.com/AlexFungali/status/1852961525079642444
Get the thread bomb PLOL to make your point. It's just not conceivable there is a 11 point swing in a lily white state from 2020 to 2024. Use common sense, Biden was down 19 points in July same pollster. This reminds me of ABC poll the week of the election showing Biden up by 17 in Wisky. Also, Selzer 'retires' after this election, who know what payroll she will be on.
These polls are not just unhelpful, they are actively making it more difficult to cut through the bullshit.
Instead of looking at polls, watch where Trump is going:
Trump today: PA, NC, GA
Trump Monday: NC, PA, PA, MI
My read on this is the Trump team is confident about Wisconsin. This goes against the betting markets which have Kamala around 60% to win. There's a chance their internal polling gives them a better chance at Michigan (which has more electoral votes) and they are punting Wisconsin in the final days.
But my read is Wisconsin is much more winnable than Michigan. It does appear to be either comfortably Trump or a punt.
It is an incredibly difficult state to poll and their internal polling will be much more accurate.
They know if they lose both PA & MI they'll need to win all of NC/GA/ARI (with Nevada being irrelevant).
They know if they lose only PA they'll only need to win at least two of NC/GA/ARI (with Nevada being irrelevant).
They know if they lose only MI they'll only need to win NC or GA.
My gut read is Wisconsin is comfortably Trump, Michigan leans Kamala, and PA leans Trump.
GA & NC lean Trump but they want to secure them if Kamala wins PA and/or MI.
My prediction at the moment is:
Trump: AZ, GA, NC, WI (272)
Harris: PA, MI, NV (266)
Regarding the NYT poll, that poll has Trump losing Nevada and NC by 3 which is mathematically impossible based on the early voting. They predicted WI the weekend before the election as Biden +11. He won by .07. Only a 10.3 miss.
I am not a conspiracy theorist, but this seems to be a concerted effort to tilt the election. Think about it, Trump was leading Biden in Iowa by 19 in July on the Selzer poll, now down 3. Nothing is making sense now. How can a candidate erode 22 points in 4 months, its just not conceivable. There is election interference and its not coming from Russia.
The Selzer poll is more than fishy. There's obviously tons of data that people are more likely to show up to the polls when they think their candidate will win.
There has been a coordinated effort to take him down in every way possible; the midwestern boomer with the stellar polling track record in an inconsequential state whose data can be extrapolated for the rest of the rust belt is the perfect target. I find it hard to believe someone with such a good track record would get so lazy & produce such a terrible poll days before the election. She's either Nostradamus and Trump loses every swing state or she's in the tank for the Democrats. There's no middle ground.
NYT basically acknowledged their final poll was shit but it goes along with the same message that Kamala will win.
----------------------
I will note one thing, I just looked at my spreadsheet and noticed something. Kamala took out an ad for a week at the Vegas sphere and had a rally with J Lo. Nevada is a pretty inconsequential swing state assuming Trump has AZ. Which, if he doesn't, means he will get blown out regardless.
But the one path where Nevada will matter is if Trump wins PA and Kamala wins Wisconsin and Michigan:
Kamala would need to win at least 2 of GA/NC/AZ
or
Wins NEV
& Wins 1 of NC or GA
They might think they have a shot at NC or GA but not both and will need Nevada.
I guess the Trump Plan A is PA/GA/NC where NV & AZ would be irrelevant.
I really think the NV poll is fucked up, and I bet on it at favorite odds for Trump to win.
Early voting points too much to a GOP victory. Even Ralston Reports, who is a Democrat, has been very pessimistic lately on the Dems' chances there.
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