The Selzer poll is more than fishy. There's obviously tons of data that people are more likely to show up to the polls when they think their candidate will win.

There has been a coordinated effort to take him down in every way possible; the midwestern boomer with the stellar polling track record in an inconsequential state whose data can be extrapolated for the rest of the rust belt is the perfect target. I find it hard to believe someone with such a good track record would get so lazy & produce such a terrible poll days before the election. She's either Nostradamus and Trump loses every swing state or she's in the tank for the Democrats. There's no middle ground.

NYT basically acknowledged their final poll was shit but it goes along with the same message that Kamala will win.

----------------------

I will note one thing, I just looked at my spreadsheet and noticed something. Kamala took out an ad for a week at the Vegas sphere and had a rally with J Lo. Nevada is a pretty inconsequential swing state assuming Trump has AZ. Which, if he doesn't, means he will get blown out regardless.

But the one path where Nevada will matter is if Trump wins PA and Kamala wins Wisconsin and Michigan:

Kamala would need to win at least 2 of GA/NC/AZ

or

Wins NEV
& Wins 1 of NC or GA

They might think they have a shot at NC or GA but not both and will need Nevada.


I guess the Trump Plan A is PA/GA/NC where NV & AZ would be irrelevant.