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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #481
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    Congress ApprovalIcon indicating this set of polls has an average.
    AVG.
    Sept. 29-Oct. 1
    1,266 LV
    YouGov
    The Economist Approve 19% 60% Disapprove Disapprove +41
    Sept. 29-Oct. 1
    1,463 RV
    YouGov
    The Economist Approve 19% 59% Disapprove Disapprove +40
    Sept. 29-Oct. 1
    1,638 A
    YouGov
    The Economist Approve 17% 54% Disapprove Disapprove +37



    I wonder which party everyone is so upset with?

    These congress approval numbers have been very consistent for months

  2. #482
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    Texter- I know you're a smart guy a good guy and a reasonable guy.

    Look at some of the people on this board you're in political kahoots with- boxcarr, desert, mickey ect

    Why would you or any normal man want to be associated with the morons i mentioned above?
    My main issue is the US border and the out of control government spending. I am pro immigrant but 10 million is too too many.

    Of course the republicans have had plenty of opportunities in the past to cut spending and didn’t do shit.

    I wish independents in non swing states would vote libertarian just so we could get a 3rd party on stage of the debates, out two party system is a joke. Politics has been ruined by the sheer sums of $$$ to be made, the main goal of most politicians is to get re-elected and keep the money faucet flowing.

  3. #483
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    General Election - National �� Trump 47% �� Harris 47% Yahoo/YouGov | 10/02-10/04 Last poll was Harris +4.


    General election poll - Arizona �� Trump 50% (+4) �� Harris 46% RMG #C - (@NapolitanNews ) - 783 LV - 10/2


    Trump is surging on Polymarket

  4. #484
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    General Election - National �� Trump 47% �� Harris 47% Yahoo/YouGov | 10/02-10/04 Last poll was Harris +4.


    General election poll - Arizona �� Trump 50% (+4) �� Harris 46% RMG #C - (@NapolitanNews ) - 783 LV - 10/2

    NEW PENNSYLVANIA BELLWETHER poll (Erie, Northampton Counties) 🔴 BORDER/IMMIGRATION: Trump+15 🔴 COSTS: Trump+7 🔴 ECONOMY: Trump+6 🔴 CRIME: Trump+6 🔵 ABORTION: Harris+14 Cygnal | Sept. 30-Oct. 1 | N=420
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post


    Trump is surging on Polymarket

  5. #485

  6. #486
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    yeah id really advise caution if you think these polymarket polls are legit:




    https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    yeah id really advise caution if you think these polymarket polls are legit:




    https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155
    All markets get manipulated, you know that. But the trend is the proverbial trend and its with Trump at least now. Yes, can change, but Harris' campaign of just hanging out saying she is not Trump is starting to implode. She briefly had momentum, and rather than go aggressive she retreated. This is by design, I don't think she can give unrehearsed answers, and her handlers are holding her back.

  8. #488
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    yeah id really advise caution if you think these polymarket polls are legit:




    https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155
    All markets get manipulated, you know that. But the trend is the proverbial trend and its with Trump at least now. Yes, can change, but Harris' campaign of just hanging out saying she is not Trump is starting to implode. She briefly had momentum, and rather than go aggressive she retreated. This is by design, I don't think she can give unrehearsed answers, and her handlers are holding her back.

    its interesting because the baseline interpretation seems to be its not a case of manipulation as much as one whale just hammering one side of the auction. someone out there is bankrolled with like 3 commas and seems to feel that trump win and trump win PA are locks. i have nothing to add on the veracity of that opinion.

     
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      Sanlmar: Damn fun ++
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  9. #489
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    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1843363275398169020


    Again, this not already being at least 3 to 2 based on known information is insane. That's factoring in the massively dumb, brainwashed left. In my opinion, Trump is more like a 4 to 1 favorite at this point. If the election were today, 10 to 1 or more. The Democrats are depending on more ballot stuffing, harvesting, fraudulent overseas ballots etc. that they are not going to get away with or get enough of this time.

    Also, look at how close Virginia is now.

  10. #490
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    yeah id really advise caution if you think these polymarket polls are legit:




    https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155


    This is kind of what i was touching on a few pages back. I would have expected to see the hard $$ betting markets to start showing trump as the favorite if these numbers were true.


    Well….. starting to show now

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  12. #492
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    All markets get manipulated, you know that. But the trend is the proverbial trend and its with Trump at least now. Yes, can change, but Harris' campaign of just hanging out saying she is not Trump is starting to implode. She briefly had momentum, and rather than go aggressive she retreated. This is by design, I don't think she can give unrehearsed answers, and her handlers are holding her back.

    its interesting because the baseline interpretation seems to be its not a case of manipulation as much as one whale just hammering one side of the auction. someone out there is bankrolled with like 3 commas and seems to feel that trump win and trump win PA are locks. i have nothing to add on the veracity of that opinion.
    The tedious crypto requirement for Poly would seem to line up with Elon.

  13. #493
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    yeah id really advise caution if you think these polymarket polls are legit:




    https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155


    This is kind of what i was touching on a few pages back. I would have expected to see the hard $$ betting markets to start showing trump as the favorite if these numbers were true.


    Well….. starting to show now

    yeah but its all like 1 account moving the market and theres pretty significant forensic evidence that its the billionaire who just announced that hes the face of 'dark maga'.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  14. #494
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Placed 9/11 +100 never forget. Missed the +115 tbh

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    Just a bet not an endorsement of either side.

  15. #495
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Placed 9/11 +100 never forget. Missed the +115 tbh

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    Just a bet not an endorsement of either side.

    Equity is equity

  16. #496
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Placed 9/11 +100 never forget. Missed the +115 tbh

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    Just a bet not an endorsement of either side.

    Equity is equity
    Trump is fucked

    "The founding fathers did not like the idea of the tyranny of the majority ruling the country"
    Dan Druff

    “I don't know what weapons World War III will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
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    and that is why it's called the present"

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  17. #497
    Platinum BetCheckBet's Avatar
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    lol at anyone trusting poly market. Their isreal will invades Lebanon bet is a huge shitshow and really tells you the state of crypto around what sort of scams are acceptable
    PokerfraudAlert acknowledges that our message board is on the unceded, unsurrendered Territory of Donkdown.com who's presence stretches back to that of Neverwinpoker and the Lithuanians. As such we acknowledge the great role that Tony G, Jewdonk, any many other Lithuanians have contributed to our community.

  18. #498
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    lol at anyone trusting poly market. Their isreal will invades Lebanon bet is a huge shitshow and really tells you the state of crypto around what sort of scams are acceptable

    Thats fine and is in part why i was questioning how valid these numbers are.


    But now we got stand alone major bookmaking outfits who will take 50K plus of action anonymously on the election market and they are making Trump the favorite. This is real money and is more serious than any of these internet share market models.

    I trust these odds.

  19. #499
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    im not trying to tell anyone how to spend their money but if you really think trump is going to win and you listen to what every HF and market maker is saying about what his proposals are going to do to the dollar,

    Current Price: $567.36

    Target Price: $540.00

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    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  20. #500
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    like at 5.5x to 1 you can literally just do an iron condor for +/-27 6% of the current SPY value and still make like considerably more than a straight trump wins bet at -107 or whatever.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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