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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #221
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    bro he has no chance like 900000 illegals in swing states got this

  2. #222
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    also is voting gay?

  3. #223
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    Voting is certainly a waste of time….so mostly gay.

  4. #224
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    Nate needs clicks too just like everyone else huckstering online.

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    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Texter View Post
    Nate needs clicks too just like everyone else huckstering online.
    Nate Silver is not in the clickbait world. He posts probabilities, which in their essence are never wrong. Snake Eyes in craps comes up 3% of the time. So if you roll it your first dice roll, its not like it was wrong. Nate simply gives probabilities. Look I don't expect 98% of the people on this forum to understand this, I am just telling you he is not wrong or right. Here again this will fly over the head on just about everyone here and I would lose people in the first paragraph if I tried to explain it.

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  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Texter View Post
    Nate needs clicks too just like everyone else huckstering online.
    Nate Silver is not in the clickbait world. He posts probabilities, which in their essence are never wrong. Snake Eyes in craps comes up 3% of the time. So if you roll it your first dice roll, its not like it was wrong. Nate simply gives probabilities. Look I don't expect 98% of the people on this forum to understand this, I am just telling you he is not wrong or right. Here again this will fly over the head on just about everyone here and I would lose people in the first paragraph if I tried to explain it.
    Can I quote you next time I’m coaching at the special Olympics?

     
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      garrett: lol..

  8. #228
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    "The bump came partially as a result of Sunday's New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver's newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris's 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state."

     
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      The Boz: All polls are worthless until after tomorrow night when the media goes into overdrive saying how she destroyed Trump.

  9. #229
    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    "The bump came partially as a result of Sunday's New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver's newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris's 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state."
    Hey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?

  10. #230
    Gold The Boz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    "The bump came partially as a result of Sunday's New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver's newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris's 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state."
    Hey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?
    Honestly question, for someone as rich, educated and successful in life as you are, why are you a flaming liberal? Seems all of their policies go against your best interests.

    When I see someone like you with these thoughts I instantly think it’s a superiority complex that you (not just you, successful libs in general) feel others can’t succeed like you did.

    Liberal policies of always trying to even stuff up and punish success have never worked but they still get traction with certain people filled with envy of others. When the reality is anyone of sound mind and physical body can become successful in America through hard work and good life choices. Yea I know, that’s a HUGE issue.

  11. #231
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    The Boz: All polls are worthless until after tomorrow night when the media goes into overdrive saying how she destroyed Trump.

    I made 7x off the last debate so I recognize I might be chasing the endorphins.

    Trump has fallen to +200 to win debate from +170 a few days ago. I don’t see Kamala dropping out of the race but 2:1 seems like value.

    Haven’t pushed the button but I’m close

    Also…. I have NEVER been a fan of Nate Silver. I’ll find posts from 10 years ago to that effect. He was early days analytics which I do give a nod to but he was a better writer. He was Bill James of his time. We don’t follow either now.

    Nate Silver was actually a very clever and entertaining guy and he parlayed that entertainment into becoming a NY Times and then a Disney/ESPN product. NY Times begged him to stay as he generated clicks like few others

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    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    I shot a 30 on the front 9 of this course today from the blues. I just wanted to brag. Hit every putt. My playing partner had an appointment. I thought about playing solo but just figured it could only go downhill

    https://course.bluegolf.com/bluegolf...dscorecard.htm

  13. #233
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I shot a 30 on the front 9 of this course today from the blues. I just wanted to brag. Hit every putt. My playing partner had an appointment. I thought about playing solo but just figured it could only go downhill

    https://course.bluegolf.com/bluegolf...dscorecard.htm
    You carry your own bag?

  14. #234
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I shot a 30 on the front 9 of this course today from the blues. I just wanted to brag. Hit every putt. My playing partner had an appointment. I thought about playing solo but just figured it could only go downhill

    https://course.bluegolf.com/bluegolf...dscorecard.htm
    You carry your own bag?
    No I did not. 2 miller lites. 1 Tylenol, and I have played this course for 38, years, never even close to that score. Obviously a lot of luck involved and the ball ran today. Way drier than normal, but I have no idea where it came from. Pin placements were super fair. I’d walk up to every 25 footer and think I can make this. And I just kept making them.

     
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      Sanlmar: Little golf humor culled from last Trump Biden debate. Congrats on the round.

  15. #235
    Diamond Sloppy Joe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    "The bump came partially as a result of Sunday's New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver's newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris's 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state."
    Hey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?
    He has a very real family and also real career and portfolio to tend to before regurgitating polling from blue check Russian bots.

    I'll be contacting him soon as I'm looking to hedge my Trump position a bit; should be an easy escrow with Druff and a chance for him to stick it to his doubters.
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  16. #236
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    "The bump came partially as a result of Sunday's New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver's newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris's 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state."
    Hey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?
    Um, Nate Silver is about as liberal as they get, and his probability index just updated was based on the most liberal newspaper poll in the nation, the New York Times.

    She is behind, the betting markets validate it now by a pretty wide margin.

    I will concede the fact that if Harris "wins the debate" Trump is in trouble. But I do not think she will. She is a word salad machine and will be completely unable to fill up 90 second answers. The media is already downplaying her chances, saying Trump will be on his 7th debate for President and this will be the first. This leads me to believe she is bombing in her debate prep, and it's leaked already.

    I am going to give credit where credit is due with this line from the legendary 408Mike who called out poster "Chris": spectacular fail

  17. #237
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Hey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?
    Um, Nate Silver is about as liberal as they get, and his probability index just updated was based on the most liberal newspaper poll in the nation, the New York Times.

    She is behind, the betting markets validate it now by a pretty wide margin.

    I will concede the fact that if Harris "wins the debate" Trump is in trouble. But I do not think she will. She is a word salad machine and will be completely unable to fill up 90 second answers. The media is already downplaying her chances, saying Trump will be on his 7th debate for President and this will be the first. This leads me to believe she is bombing in her debate prep, and it's leaked already.

    I am going to give credit where credit is due with this line from the legendary 408Mike who called out poster "Chris": spectacular fail

    She is word salad.

    I have to say it’s amazing what charisma can do because no one has ever been word salad like Trump, yet he gets a pass. Reading Trump answers in written form is basically like trying to decipher the Gettysburg address written in sanskrit. It never makes an ounce of sense, but he sells absolute gibberish with confidence.

    He’s also getting worse. I fully expect him to win, but god lord we are going to have another Biden situation topping 80 soon.

    If he had to debate anyone good he’d be in a precarious spot. But she isn’t good even in scripted sit downs.

  18. #238
    Diamond Sloppy Joe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    Um, Nate Silver is about as liberal as they get, and his probability index just updated was based on the most liberal newspaper poll in the nation, the New York Times.

    She is behind, the betting markets validate it now by a pretty wide margin.

    I will concede the fact that if Harris "wins the debate" Trump is in trouble. But I do not think she will. She is a word salad machine and will be completely unable to fill up 90 second answers. The media is already downplaying her chances, saying Trump will be on his 7th debate for President and this will be the first. This leads me to believe she is bombing in her debate prep, and it's leaked already.

    I am going to give credit where credit is due with this line from the legendary 408Mike who called out poster "Chris": spectacular fail

    She is word salad.

    I have to say it’s amazing what charisma can do because no one has ever been word salad like Trump, yet he gets a pass. Reading Trump answers in written form is basically like trying to decipher the Gettysburg address written in sanskrit. It never makes an ounce of sense, but he sells absolute gibberish with confidence.

    He’s also getting worse. I fully expect him to win, but god lord we are going to have another Biden situation topping 80 soon.

    If he had to debate anyone good he’d be in a precarious spot. But she isn’t good even in scripted sit downs.
    Agree; Kamala against anyone of serious intellect would be a disaster. Against Trump forming sentences will suffice, which she'll do.

    Most outcomes won't move the needle much at all, unless Trump gets triggered and is more unhinged than normal or the drug cocktail is off.

    95% of Americans reflect the general make up of this board, poor and retarded.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    If a genocide is happening, it's Hamas against the people of Gaza.

    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I'm pretty good at finding graves

  19. #239
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    Um, Nate Silver is about as liberal as they get, and his probability index just updated was based on the most liberal newspaper poll in the nation, the New York Times.

    She is behind, the betting markets validate it now by a pretty wide margin.

    I will concede the fact that if Harris "wins the debate" Trump is in trouble. But I do not think she will. She is a word salad machine and will be completely unable to fill up 90 second answers. The media is already downplaying her chances, saying Trump will be on his 7th debate for President and this will be the first. This leads me to believe she is bombing in her debate prep, and it's leaked already.

    I am going to give credit where credit is due with this line from the legendary 408Mike who called out poster "Chris": spectacular fail

    I fully expect him to win
    Finally, I am glad you came over to our side. I know you live in border state Ohio, but are you available to do some door knocking in Southwest Pennsylvania leading up the election? Washington PA area. You will organize a team and yes, you will get meals paid for, we have connections with some local restaurants. Interested?

    Welcome aboard my friend.

  20. #240
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post


    I fully expect him to win
    Finally, I am glad you came over to our side. I know you live in border state Ohio, but are you available to do some door knocking in Southwest Pennsylvania leading up the election? Washington PA area. You will organize a team and yes, you will get meals paid for, we have connections with some local restaurants. Interested?

    Welcome aboard my friend.
    Is this thread a love letter cause we have Trump Train.

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