President 2016

[Dan Druff]

What don't you understand?

I would be absolutely shocked if Trump loses. Like, beyond -600 shocked. I'm talking -2000 or higher shocked. He has been crushing in SC the whole way, and I don't see that changing in the next 5 days.

If you think I'm simply betting it because I believe Trump has the best chance to win, you don't understand why I bet it.

Well, I guess you see it as -1000/-2000.

While I am enjoying the Trump show, I have a healthy respect for his potential (willingness?) to self-detonate. I don't know how to apply math toward that potential.

Going after ex-President Bush hammer & tongs. Iraq etc. Love it. Fucking unprecedented attack of his own party's icon. Especially interesting given old man Bush is hitting the campaign trail.

This is Trump. He is one remark over the next week or two from vaporizing that lead. You need to take a quiet moment to quantify that very real risk.

The above is really just me jousting with you. I am hugely impressed with the energy and intellect you use to make reads of individuals personality and motives. Thus, I have been amazed with your disconnect as the campaigns have unfolded. Crowd psychology or whatever might not be your thing. I have seen evidence on other issues. Your ability to separate your own feelings and make a dispassionate assessment of reality. Your early Rubio analysis crippled your credibility with me. I so far have dismissed that you understand the voter zeitgeist. It gives me a bit of insight into your world as I develop my own read of you. Fun stuff is all.

Your current acceptance that Trump is leading is one thing. But do you understand why?

What "disconnect"?

Wat "early Rubio analysis" of mine was incorrect?

When Rubio was on the rise late last year, I said so, and I said that he seemed to be the favorite to end up challenging Trump for the nomination.

When he stagnated, I said that it looked more like a 2-man race, with Rubio being the outside 3rd.

After Iowa, Rubio's candidacy was reinvigorated, and I said he was again going to be viable. Political analysts and even the sportsbooks agreed.

After the bad debate, I said that it would probably hurt Rubio and destroy his momentum, and it did.

At the moment I am conceding that Trump is the favorite for the nomination, as much as I don't like it.

So where am I disconnected?