Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
I'm interested in opinions of teams which will overperform and underperform this year, compared to expectations.
Here's the teams I expect to overperform:
SF 49ers -- Between the easy schedule and the return of several injured players, not only should this team easily beat its disasterous 6-11 record from last year, but they should rise above the middling expectations for them this year (partially due to last year's results).
Aside from the injury bug still being a problem (which I noted later in the thread), this prediction was spot on. Niners are 9-4 and have been getting it done, for the most part, especially against bad teams.
NY Giants -- They have a tough schedule, but Russell Wilson should be at least decent and definitely an upgrade over last year, and Malik Nabers will probably be even better. Expectations are low, and I think the Giants will exceed them, though not make the postseason.
Couldn't be more wrong here. Giants are 2-10 and regressing further.
LA Chargers -- Jim Harbaugh turned this longtime underperforming squad around, and went 11-6 last year. There's a decent chance this year could be even better, behind Justin Hebert and a solid group behind him.
More incorrect than correct. The Chargers are decent, but they're worse than last year, and VERY inconsistent. Last week's thrashing by the Jaguars was a good example.
Tennessee Titans -- This isn't going to be a contending team, but many "experts" are projecting them to be the worst team in the NFL. I see things going better for them, especially if Cam Ward breaks out with a strong season.
Ugh, I wish I could take this one back. The "experts" were right!
Here's the teams I expect to underperform:
Philadelphia Eagles -- This team choked in 23-24, losing 5 of their last 6, and then getting smacked in the first round of the playoffs. They limped into 24-25 with much lower expectations, and quietly succeeded due to being the only team which consistently played well, essentially playing just one bad game the entire season (a 33-16 early loss to the Buccaneers). But does this team really have staying power? Was last year's version actually dominant, or just consistent and good at taking advantage of all of the other teams' flaws? Their defense is young and may not be totally ready. The Eagles may pick up where they left off, but they also could become a new version of the team from two years ago.
Ironically, I placed my late Survivor fortunes on this team, despite accurately predicting they would regress. Indeed, the defense was not "ready" that game, and Chicago ran them ragged. This prediction was very correct, and indeed the Eagles have "become a new version of the team from two years ago".
KC Chiefs -- Not only did they play several bad games last year, and got stomped in the Super Bowl, but there's some concerns that the team doesn't have much depth, and that both Kelce and Mahomes will play worse this year. Note that Kelce is about to be 36, and Mahomes regressed a little in 2024-25 versus the prior year. Many think this is still a superteam, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall short of expectations.
Big yup. Mahones and Kelce are worse this year, they don't have depth, and they have no consistency. They might miss the playoffs, and are 6-6, which is definitely "short of expectations".
Miami Dolphins -- Can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? The defense on this team is also a question mark, and there's the perennial problem (especially recently) of this team being unable to win when it's cold on the road. They also got torched by above-.500 teams during the past 2 years, winning just 1 game in that span. I don't see this team finishing with 9 or more wins, and in fact something like 7 wins seems more likely, perhaps fewer if Tua gets hurt.
At the beginning of the season, this pessimism looked like an understatement, as they were one of the worst teams in the NFL. Now they are playing much better, but the overall prediction looks like it's going to come in correct, as their likely win total is probably 7 at this point.
Cleveland Browns -- It is universally expected that they'll be bad, but I think they'll actually be the worst team in the NFL this year, unless one of the other bad teams suffers major injuries. The QB situation is a mess, and it will get even trickier when DeShaun Watson comes back.
Partially correct. The QB situation remains a mess, and the fact that they're rolling with Sanders at this point speaks volumes, though I guess they had to give him a shot at some point. They're not the worst team in the NFL, but that's mainly because some other teams are so horrendous that it makes the Browns look competent. Offense has been a catastrophe.
Dallas Cowboys -- They have a weak running game, they also can't defend against the running game, and there's not a lot of reason to believe they'll improve upon their 7-10 record from last year.
Mostly incorrect. Dallas has exceeded their low expectations with two unexpected wins recently, against the declining Eagles and Chiefs. They're now 6-5-1, and almost knocking on the door of the NFC East.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- They signed Aaron Rodgers (lol), and if he flops (which he likely will), they've got two fail backups who aren't really suited to be starting NFL QBs. They lost 4 to end the season last year, after a surprising 10-3 start, and I see that continuing this season -- but without the hot start. They won't make the playoffs.
They will be the AFC North leaders by 1 game if they win today. This team is flawed, but they're by no means a pushover, and Rodgers has been better than expected, especially considering that he was born in 1983.
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