"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
The US Labor Department announces that the October CPI inflation report has been CANCELLED.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
i genuinely hope some of you cucks tailed a couple years ago
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Warren Buffet makes his first tech investment at 95 years old in the midst of what is commonly accepted to be an AI bubble.
I didn’t get it. I’m now beginning to believe in a Google AI advantage.
Let’s be honest though… this was prolly Charlie Mungar’s idea.
I remember staring at the screen when Google went public. I never believed. To this day I don’t use Google search. Regrets, I have many.
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
i kinda glossed over it and moved on instead of posting which in retrospect was a mistake, but some analyst just announced we could see an 80% drop in the market and the more i think about his thesis, the harder it gets to discount.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
i kinda glossed over it and moved on instead of posting which in retrospect was a mistake, but some analyst just announced we could see an 80% drop in the market and the more i think about his thesis, the harder it gets to discount.
i read that. quite the take. 80% seems absurd, it would cause true chaos (for the rich which would trinkle down). along a similar vein, i was reminded of this below, which i have to believe in the short term will override all other fundamentals. with that said, when the bill comes due, we will be dinning and dashing.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1994073770684780716
i read that. quite the take. 80% seems absurd, it would cause true chaos (for the rich which would trinkle down). along a similar vein, i was reminded of this below, which i have to believe in the short term will override all other fundamentals. with that said, when the bill comes due, we will be dinning and dashing.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1994073770684780716
its an interesting take because hes basically rolling back the clock to march of 2009, give or take. so his thesis isnt 'bear market' or 'recession', its 'everything we put together after the GFC gets swept off the board'. and thats an interesting proposal because if we did have that happen, setting aside the second order transient effects like homelessness and unemployment, what exactly are we losing?
the government does have the tools/resources to nationalize solutions for housing, food, security, health. they arent comfortable solutions but with a not so metaphorical gun to their heads, they can solve them. they can build little concrete houses, they can nationalize farms, they can distribute food, they can keep power stations going, etc etc.
what we lose, in that scenario, is shit like... copping the new iphone. having 8 streaming subscriptions. cheap credit. $200 45" tvs. 100gb symmetrical internet speeds.
i mean im just spitballing here but my point is this; if we roll back /ES to 1250 and lose all the things that prop it up at 6850, i dont think that gets us 'drying strips of venison on the side of abandoned superhighways' i think that gets us kids playing outside and maybe even subsidized jobs fixing america's crumbling infrastructure....
its an interesting proposal and not necessarily the nuclear winter one would expect.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
its an interesting take because hes basically rolling back the clock to march of 2009, give or take. so his thesis isnt 'bear market' or 'recession', its 'everything we put together after the GFC gets swept off the board'. and thats an interesting proposal because if we did have that happen, setting aside the second order transient effects like homelessness and unemployment, what exactly are we losing?
the government does have the tools/resources to nationalize solutions for housing, food, security, health. they arent comfortable solutions but with a not so metaphorical gun to their heads, they can solve them. they can build little concrete houses, they can nationalize farms, they can distribute food, they can keep power stations going, etc etc.
what we lose, in that scenario, is shit like... copping the new iphone. having 8 streaming subscriptions. cheap credit. $200 45" tvs. 100gb symmetrical internet speeds.
i mean im just spitballing here but my point is this; if we roll back /ES to 1250 and lose all the things that prop it up at 6850, i dont think that gets us 'drying strips of venison on the side of abandoned superhighways' i think that gets us kids playing outside and maybe even subsidized jobs fixing america's crumbling infrastructure....
its an interesting proposal and not necessarily the nuclear winter one would expect.
two observations:
1. in addition to the influx of unprecedented stimmy/liquidity pushed in 09, must not we also factor in the 2020-24 covid stimmy/liquidity? combined it's staggering which brings me to
2. hasn't our window for what you suggest closed now? i.e., we print and then what? everything earned, saved, or inherited suddenly is kneecapped and treasuries drop to what? then who's buying worthless paper to accomplish this? i suppose there could be some sort of great reset that is currently beyond my paygrade and hurts my head to consider. if that occurs, those who own hard assets will fare exponentially better, but i digress.
two observations:
1. in addition to the influx of unprecedented stimmy/liquidity pushed in 09, must not we also factor in the 2020-24 covid stimmy/liquidity? combined it's staggering which brings me to
2. hasn't our window for what you suggest closed now? i.e., we print and then what? everything earned, saved, or inherited suddenly is kneecapped and treasuries drop to what? then who's buying worthless paper to accomplish this? i suppose there could be some sort of great reset that is currently beyond my paygrade and hurts my head to consider. if that occurs, those who own hard assets will fare exponentially better, but i digress.
see: argentina currency crisis.
yeah the wealthy will be able to nap it out with private security and gated communities.
everything else is going to have to be nationalized / handed over to fema and then gradually bootstrapped. and theres going to be period before that happens where 2 things happen; people stop showing up for work at power plants and police stations and hospitals because their checks bounce, and the government is going to do nothing and miss many, many critical opportunities because the christian coalition types are going to freak the absolute fuck out about the socialist menace at their door every time someone suggests that keeping the power on in maternity wards is their literal responsibility, not the private equity robber barons who bought the hospitals.
but yes, paper is worthless and there will be no buyers of last resort. a lot of people places and things will go busto. but if we elect people who have healthy emotional intelligence levels, it will be less dire. the lights will stay on. there will be fresh water and food and antibiotics. which despite it all puts us head and shoulders above an awful lot of people in 'stable' countries, so theres that to consider.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
and really, if it happens, its not the first time weve been stripped to the bolts, and it wont be the last.
would hate to be taiwan the morning we wake up to /ES 1250 tho...
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
so what current odds would you give that china repatriates Taiwan w/n 10 years from today?
tine/san/et. al.?
gut feeling; 90%
i like to imagine we just offer every single person and company in taiwan a visa and just say look you have 3 years to pack up and get the fuck over here because china is coming and its going to cost us more in money and blood than we want to pay to keep it from happening.
also the more i read about the circumstances behind taiwans independence, the more im like naw i dont think we really have a dog in this fight if we can just move the tech over here.
i expect some sort of hong kong style handover that we broker.
but if china wants to get cute and insist all taiwan's biz infrastructure is chinese property, we will probably end up wiping out each others navys and then some and in the end they get nothing but an island of cinders for the trouble.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
gut feeling; 90%
i like to imagine we just offer every single person and company in taiwan a visa and just say look you have 3 years to pack up and get the fuck over here because china is coming and its going to cost us more in money and blood than we want to pay to keep it from happening.
also the more i read about the circumstances behind taiwans independence, the more im like naw i dont think we really have a dog in this fight if we can just move the tech over here.
i expect some sort of hong kong style handover that we broker.
but if china wants to get cute and insist all taiwan's biz infrastructure is chinese property, we will probably end up wiping out each others navys and then some and in the end they get nothing but an island of cinders for the trouble.
much higher than i expected. interesting. i'd say more like 50% which seems a cop out, except if it weren't limited to 10 years i would agree 90%. hong kong would be the best option for all once we arrive there.
ummmmm
hm
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
much higher than i expected. interesting. i'd say more like 50% which seems a cop out, except if it weren't limited to 10 years i would agree 90%. hong kong would be the best option for all once we arrive there.
the thing is, america is on its way down, not up. shitty leadership, shitty morale, very little appetite for wars that dont really benefit us and what little appetite there is has been curiously devoted to israel's benefit.
but america has hit the skids before and it has always bounced back. china's going to know that too.
plus they could apply pressure to russia and call taiwan's peaceful handover the bill. which is likely the only reason they slithered into bed with russia in the first place.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
ummmmm
hmhttps://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1994409708321718519
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
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