Bitcoins are officially donkdown

[Tellafriend]

Bitcoin under 98k

It broke the 100k barrier and this time is hanging around there, rather than bouncing back immediately.

Uh oh!

the math on $MSTR is getting realllllllly bad

yeah it may cause a true crash - so far it's been child's play.

[sonatine]

the math on $MSTR is getting realllllllly bad

yeah it may cause a true crash - so far it's been child's play.

pretty fucking incredibly tone deaf message being delivered here:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1989308024817598534

[Daly]

Bitcoin under 98k

It broke the 100k barrier and this time is hanging around there, rather than bouncing back immediately.

Uh oh!

the math on $MSTR is getting realllllllly bad

I know this doesn't fit the thread narrative but at last check they owned ~650K BTC at $74K.

Thats a unrealized gain of $14.3Billion.

[Dan Druff]

$94,681 was the low about 3 hours ago.

Now it's BACK to $97k.

If it gets back over 100 and sits there, this is probably no big deal.

If it doesn't, we are probably looking at a dead cat bounce, and buckle up.

[sonatine]

the math on $MSTR is getting realllllllly bad

I know this doesn't fit the thread narrative but at last check they owned ~650K BTC at $74K.

Thats a unrealized gain of $14.3Billion.

lets wait and see how levered they are before we rush to assumptions but point taken

[Tellafriend]

I know this doesn't fit the thread narrative but at last check they owned ~650K BTC at $74K.

Thats a unrealized gain of $14.3Billion.

you would know better than me, but i thought i read it was in the 90ks last night. what i read easily could be wrong as so much is or is simply misleading.


daly you follow this more than me and as i recall, are a believer. what are your thoughts on what is happening.

[Daly]

I know this doesn't fit the thread narrative but at last check they owned ~650K BTC at $74K.

Thats a unrealized gain of $14.3Billion.

lets wait and see how levered they are before we rush to assumptions but point taken

Could be wrong here but the firm is selling a bitcoin treasury as a new way of doing things. I think a big part of that is zero leverage similar to how you would hold operating cash. The prospectus is hold the asset for a year and you now are up 30% over time..... no need to be levered.

[Daly]

I know this doesn't fit the thread narrative but at last check they owned ~650K BTC at $74K.

Thats a unrealized gain of $14.3Billion.

you would know better than me, but i thought i read it was in the 90ks last night. what i read easily could be wrong as so much is or is simply misleading.


daly you follow this more than me and as i recall, are a believer. what are your thoughts on what is happening.

The overly simple thesis is the coin is on a demand vs supply curve that is tied to the "halving". Using round numbers every 4 years give or take the amount of BTC you get for cracking the right code on march of 2024 was double what it was on April 2024 post halving.

You have a fairly robust demand for BTC now. In ~ April of 2028 the amount of net new BTC will cut in half. All the miners who are using energy and computing power to mine the coin either need to be twice as lucky (they wont) or they will need the price to roughly double to get others to sell. Like I said this is a overly simple thesis.

As such you have a natural ebb and flow after the halving where the price comes up (this time it seems like $125k was the top). If past performance repeats its self I think you will now see a sell off. I don't think anyone expects a run up of price for now in fact of i had to guess the price will likely retract back to 50-60K over the next 1-1.5 years.

April of 2027 or so i think you start to see some buy back. Around april of 2028 through end of 2028 Inwould expect a run from 50/60K to $250K

Its all a educated guess based on history, not gospel

[Tellafriend]

you would know better than me, but i thought i read it was in the 90ks last night. what i read easily could be wrong as so much is or is simply misleading.


daly you follow this more than me and as i recall, are a believer. what are your thoughts on what is happening.

The overly simple thesis is the coin is on a demand vs supply curve that is tied to the "halving". Using round numbers every 4 years give or take the amount of BTC you get for cracking the right code on march of 2024 was double what it was on April 2024 post halving.

You have a fairly robust demand for BTC now. In ~ April of 2028 the amount of net new BTC will cut in half. All the miners who are using energy and computing power to mine the coin either need to be twice as lucky (they wont) or they will need the price to roughly double to get others to sell. Like I said this is a overly simple thesis.

As such you have a natural ebb and flow after the halving where the price comes up (this time it seems like $125k was the top). If past performance repeats its self I think you will now see a sell off. I don't think anyone expects a run up of price for now in fact of i had to guess the price will likely retract back to 50-60K over the next 1-1.5 years.

April of 2027 or so i think you start to see some buy back. Around april of 2028 through end of 2028 Inwould expect a run from 50/60K to $250K

Its all a educated guess based on history, not gospel

are you holding throughout this and if you don't mind, how much roughly of your portfolio do you have in it? and are you limited to btc or others like eth sol?

feel free to msg otherwise if you don't want to post.

ty!

[Tellafriend]

yeah it may cause a true crash - so far it's been child's play.

pretty fucking incredibly tone deaf message being delivered here:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1989308024817598534

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/izebel_eth/status/1989316126040342655

[Daly]

The overly simple thesis is the coin is on a demand vs supply curve that is tied to the "halving". Using round numbers every 4 years give or take the amount of BTC you get for cracking the right code on march of 2024 was double what it was on April 2024 post halving.

You have a fairly robust demand for BTC now. In ~ April of 2028 the amount of net new BTC will cut in half. All the miners who are using energy and computing power to mine the coin either need to be twice as lucky (they wont) or they will need the price to roughly double to get others to sell. Like I said this is a overly simple thesis.

As such you have a natural ebb and flow after the halving where the price comes up (this time it seems like $125k was the top). If past performance repeats its self I think you will now see a sell off. I don't think anyone expects a run up of price for now in fact of i had to guess the price will likely retract back to 50-60K over the next 1-1.5 years.

April of 2027 or so i think you start to see some buy back. Around april of 2028 through end of 2028 Inwould expect a run from 50/60K to $250K

Its all a educated guess based on history, not gospel

are you holding throughout this and if you don't mind, how much roughly of your portfolio do you have in it? and are you limited to btc or others like eth sol?

feel free to msg otherwise if you don't want to post.

ty!

I am not in BTC at the moment. I had said in this thread I was taking a 33% "All in" bet on BTC at ~$30K in 2022 before the halving. It ran to $65 or so by April of 2024 and it stalled and I hit the sell button. Of course it has since continued to 125 since so cant win them all.

I do plan to see how things are going at the end of next year/beginning of 2027 in preparation for the halving in 2028.

[1dollarboxcar]

.

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/Ross__Hendricks/status/1990166832125215021

[sonatine]

JP Morgan is warning that $MSTR may be removed from the Nasdaq 100

[Sanlmar]

JP Morgan is warning that $MSTR may be removed from the Nasdaq 100

Will California still hold it in Desertrunners pension plan? You know, Trump executive orders and all that.

[Dan Druff]

83k??

Oy vey

[Dan Druff]

Cryptocurrency has lasted for 15 years since taking on monetary value, and whenever we declare it dead, it comes roaring back.

So I won't pretend to know that this is the end, because it very well may rebound.

However, it's worth noting that, as we come near the beginning of 2026, the following is STILL true about crypto:

- No wide mainstream adoption for use of payment

- The vast majority of coins and tokens have zero utility

- Aside from illegal online gambling and nerds sending each other money online, there is still no real use for even the biggest cryptos

- The insane value ($83k per bitcoin is still nuts) is entirely due to the belief that it's a good vehicle for investment

- The average person has no clue how to acquire or use crypto, nor a desire to learn

- Sending crypto costs money, whereas Zelle/Cash App/Venmo are all free to send



One day the "what have we been doing?" moment is going to come, and it's going to be really ugly. Is that moment now? Maybe, maybe not.

Crypto has survived, and in fact thrived in the medium-long term. But the actual long term looks very bad.

[garrett]

Cryptocurrency has lasted for 15 years since taking on monetary value, and whenever we declare it dead, it comes roaring back.

So I won't pretend to know that this is the end, because it very well may rebound.

However, it's worth noting that, as we come near the beginning of 2026, the following is STILL true about crypto:

- No wide mainstream adoption for use of payment

- The vast majority of coins and tokens have zero utility

- Aside from illegal online gambling and nerds sending each other money online, there is still no real use for even the biggest cryptos

- The insane value ($83k per bitcoin is still nuts) is entirely due to the belief that it's a good vehicle for investment

- The average person has no clue how to acquire or use crypto, nor a desire to learn

- Sending crypto costs money, whereas Zelle/Cash App/Venmo are all free to send



One day the "what have we been doing?" moment is going to come, and it's going to be really ugly. Is that moment now? Maybe, maybe not.

Crypto has survived, and in fact thrived in the medium-long term. But the actual long term looks very bad.

[Daly]

Cryptocurrency has lasted for 15 years since taking on monetary value, and whenever we declare it dead, it comes roaring back.

So I won't pretend to know that this is the end, because it very well may rebound.

However, it's worth noting that, as we come near the beginning of 2026, the following is STILL true about crypto:

- No wide mainstream adoption for use of payment

- The vast majority of coins and tokens have zero utility

- Aside from illegal online gambling and nerds sending each other money online, there is still no real use for even the biggest cryptos

- The insane value ($83k per bitcoin is still nuts) is entirely due to the belief that it's a good vehicle for investment

- The average person has no clue how to acquire or use crypto, nor a desire to learn

- Sending crypto costs money, whereas Zelle/Cash App/Venmo are all free to send



One day the "what have we been doing?" moment is going to come, and it's going to be really ugly. Is that moment now? Maybe, maybe not.

Crypto has survived, and in fact thrived in the medium-long term. But the actual long term looks very bad.

Now do the United States Federal Reserve Notes

[Sanlmar]

$80k this morning until market priced in another Fed rate cut then it popped

That candle will never be covered up though unlike the Epstein files.


if you see bitcoin as a store of wealth the prospect of inflated dollar makes sense