Change the headline to...
Vegas is Dead!!!
Change the headline to...
Vegas is Dead!!!
For the most part, yes. Many (but not all) machines are programmed to give a higher return percentage at higher denominations. This, in fact, affects slot advantage play, as the threshold where these machines bridge into advantage mode happens earlier at higher denominations -- but again, only on certain machines.Originally Posted by brutal_thinker
Not likely. This is a possibility to occur in the future, but at the moment the casinos are still in denial that their shitty games are somewhat causing people to not return to Vegas. In fact, even those not in the know about the degraded odds are probably staying away, simply because they notice they can't win. It's also important to know that the "tight machine, loose machine" thing is somewhat of a myth. While there definitely are difference in return percentages between machines, changing a machine to be "looser" is not trivial. This is because, at least in Nevada, the Gaming Commission regulates such changes, and the casino must seek and receive approval in order to do so. This is a slow and somewhat cumbersome process, so it's not worth doing unless the casino is making a long-term change to the machines. There is no such thing as Vegas machines being set to be looser during the day compared to at night, or on certain days of the week.
There are settings in many machines which allow the casino to pick from one of a few pre-selected return percentages. However, as I said, they need to put this through Gaming, so most casinos don't bother. They usually set it and forget it.
Might they eventually loosen the machines in order to reverse the downward trend in visitation and play? Perhaps, but if they do, you're likely to hear about it via advertising.
It appears you just got lucky. And that's great, because all of us have had brutally unlucky streaks in gambling, so it's nice to have trips like these, even if otherwise playing -EV machines. There's not much to read into this success, however.
This part is particularly interesting to me.
First off, I'm shocked that a $4/$8 limit holdem player gets room comps, especially being local. They make very little money on that game per player per hour. If Red Rock has been comping your dad rooms for a long time for just playing that, they've been very generous with him. To compare, no matter how much I play $30/$60 or $80/$160 at Bellagio, they will not comp me anything. At best, I will get a reduced (but still not so great) poker rate, and that will still require play during the stay that I have to prove! I don't even bother.
What type of play did you do in 2025 at Red Rock? While it sounds like they hand out room offers easily, I'm especially surprised you got $50 freeplay. However, if you've played some slots this year (which I think you have), that could easily generate such offers. Oh, and just to let you know, you will never pay room tax if there is a comped room and comped resort fee. Clark County makes it illegal to charge tax on hotel rooms if no cash exchanges hands to pay for the room. This is a little known law, but that's why you saw no tax. In fact, even Caesars isn't aware of the law, and they violate it when you pay for your room with RCs! The government doesn't care, though, because that tax gets remitted to them! Caesars is just too clueless to know they shouldn't be charging it.
Some additional info:
1. Dad plays 4/8 limit for 5-6 hours per day, but often goes to play pit games after that. He plays blackjack and craps mostly, so that may be how he is able to get so many comps. He also has north of 1.5M player points on his account which he occasionally uses for meals and things like that.
2. I didn't play many slots over the course of 2025, but, the trip before this last one, I played a bit to kill time, so maybe that generated the offer.
3. I am sure that this was 100% dumb luck and have no doubt it is not likely to occur again. If I am lucky, maybe this gets me more comps for future trips.
Things are falling apart at Paris:
The July stats for Vegas tourism come out Friday.
Like I said before, once August ends, the tourism numbers go DOWN as its back to school time for the kids. September to March- Best time to go to Vegas, especially mid-week.
When those July numbers come out tomorrow, it wont mean much either way, because September and onward, its down time.
Okay, makes more sense regarding your dad. He's getting the comps from the BJ and craps play -- not the limit holdem. The poker is probably getting him nothing (or almost nothing).
Yes, your slots you played last time is what triggered the offer. This is actually common -- that sudden casino play after a long time of dormancy or no-play will trigger at least a small offer. The thinking behind this is, "Okay, he's showing that he wants to gamble. Maybe we can get him back and he'll gamble even more."
In general, comps are determined by something called "ADT" -- average daily theoretical (losses). Your ADT is simply a mathematical calculation regarding what your loss would have been if your luck were exactly average. That is divided by the number of days they see you on property. Note that "days" don't run from midnight to midnight... usually it's something like 4am-3:59am or 6am-5:59am. Also they "see you on property" when you either stay at the hotel under your own name, or when you use your players card. This is why it's not good to use your card briefly if you aren't staying on property and otherwise haven't used the card yet that day. So, for example, if you are staying with your dad and the two of you decide to play $5 blackjack for 30 minutes, it's probably better not to use a card at all. However, if you've already shown them your card that day (or if you're staying at the hotel), there's no downside to showing your card in most cases, even for short sessions.
Comps will sometimes be affected by other factors:
- Losses. If you get completely obliterated and run FAR below expectation, some properties will temporarily up your comps. However, this will not occur everywhere, and in many places the increase will be small. Wins do NOT affect your comps either way, so this nice session you had will have zero impact on future comps, aside from the amount of play you ran.
- Hours played. In the old days, this was used to calculate ADT because they didn't have a better way. Now that they can track ADT much more accurately, hours aren't used much anymore at machines, though some properties will still use it a bit when calculating comps. More hours is better, but again, most properties got away from this, and those that still use it don't weigh it heavily, so don't intentionally slow play.
- Offers redeemed. There's a concept in addition to ADT called "MDV" -- market daily value. MDV is your ADT minus the amount you redeemed in comps and offers that trip. Notice these are calculated at THEIR prices, not retail prices. So a free room is assigned a price, but it's a fairly low one (way less than they charge for it). Free meals are assigned a price, but again, it's marked down for this purpose. Freeplay and other "hard comps" (comps which cost them the retail value) are subtracted at face value. That gives them a picture of how much they can expect to make from you. So if they assign the room as $40, your $100 food voucher as costing them $50, and $200 freeplay, and you redeem all of them, you cost them $290. Let's say your theoretical (not actual) losses were $500. And let's say you were seen 3 days. They would subtract $290 from the $500, resulting in $210. Then they'd divide by 3 (days), and your MDV would be $70. Your comps would then be calculated as a player who is worth $70 in profit per day from them, so you wouldn't get anything good. Do not worry about MDV, though. Redeem all the offers you want. This is just a reason to possibly pass on redeeming offers for things you don't actually enjoy at all.
- Overcomping. If you have recently used more benefits/comps than you have generated in theoretical loss, you are considered "overcomped". If you do this for awhile, they might no-offer you, or your offers will be laughably bad.
- New player. If you recently got a card, your offers will be better up front (after 2-3 months pass from your first play) than they will be after that. This is especially true if you play a lot on your first day, then disappear for a few months. On the flip side, once they get used to reliably seeing you, it is very hard to increase your offers, and in many cases they will decrease.
- Restarting player. Someone who hasn't been seen in about 18 months is seen by casinos as almost new player status. So if you show up after 18 months of not being seen at all, and play a good deal, you might get some surprisingly good comps. But this isn't true for all properties (nor is it always true regarding new players, but that's more reliable).
- Always low edge. Some casinos will no-offer you if they detect that you stick to only the very highest payout video poker. However, this only applies in places with good paytables. If all paytables are mediocre or shitty, they're happy to have your action no matter what.
Here's some things which do NOT affect your comps, even though people erroneously believe they do:
- Winning. Casinos are playing a numbers game, and realize some people will get lucky and win. They don't hold this against you. They just want action.
- Tier status. There is a huge misconception that once you move up to a premium tier status, your comps will greatly improve. They won't. Tier status gives guaranteed benefits, but does not affect comps.
- Being a nice guy (or tipping well) to your host or the pit boss. This used to work in some cases, but now everything is being done by computer. Hosts have very little leeway beyond that, and pit bosses don't issue comps at all anymore, in most cases.
- Playing a short time at a very high denomination. Doing 3 spins on a $1000 slot machine is no better than doing 300 spins on a $10 slot.
Finally, and I can't stress this enough... if you have a host, do NOT use him/her to solve hotel billing issues. Often hotel staff will direct you to do this, as it gets you out of their hair, but you are the one who gets fucked in the end. Why? Because hosts don't fix things -- they comp them. For example, let's say you had a $200 food offer with instructions to charge it to your room, and it will come off. So you have a $250 meal, and instead of seeing just $50 on your hotel bill, you see the full $250. They will often send you to your host to fix it. But guess what? Your host won't fix it -- he will just spend $200 MORE of your comps to remove it -- money you could have otherwise used for further comps down the line! It's the equivalent of you coming to me and saying, "Hey Todd, my AT&T bill has a mistake on it and it's $200 too high... can you help me?", and then I steal $200 out of your wallet and say, "Sure... by tomorrow you'll see your bill is down $200!" That's basically what happens when hosts "fix" issues. Instead, decline to get the host involved, and demand they fix the problem on the hotel/casino end. The only exception is if it's something the host arranged himself -- such as him arranging a comp suite and then you get charged for it. In that case, you can go to him to fix it.
I know you aren't gambling at the level to be hosted, but just an FYI to anyone else reading.
Thank you for this. It is incredibly insightful. I also owe you one for warning about those "must hit by" machines. I would have dropped a pretty penny chasing that otherwise.Okay, makes more sense regarding your dad. He's getting the comps from the BJ and craps play -- not the limit holdem. The poker is probably getting him nothing (or almost nothing).
Yes, your slots you played last time is what triggered the offer. This is actually common -- that sudden casino play after a long time of dormancy or no-play will trigger at least a small offer. The thinking behind this is, "Okay, he's showing that he wants to gamble. Maybe we can get him back and he'll gamble even more."
In general, comps are determined by something called "ADT" -- average daily theoretical (losses). Your ADT is simply a mathematical calculation regarding what your loss would have been if your luck were exactly average. That is divided by the number of days they see you on property. Note that "days" don't run from midnight to midnight... usually it's something like 4am-3:59am or 6am-5:59am. Also they "see you on property" when you either stay at the hotel under your own name, or when you use your players card. This is why it's not good to use your card briefly if you aren't staying on property and otherwise haven't used the card yet that day. So, for example, if you are staying with your dad and the two of you decide to play $5 blackjack for 30 minutes, it's probably better not to use a card at all. However, if you've already shown them your card that day (or if you're staying at the hotel), there's no downside to showing your card in most cases, even for short sessions.
Comps will sometimes be affected by other factors:
- Losses. If you get completely obliterated and run FAR below expectation, some properties will temporarily up your comps. However, this will not occur everywhere, and in many places the increase will be small. Wins do NOT affect your comps either way, so this nice session you had will have zero impact on future comps, aside from the amount of play you ran.
- Hours played. In the old days, this was used to calculate ADT because they didn't have a better way. Now that they can track ADT much more accurately, hours aren't used much anymore at machines, though some properties will still use it a bit when calculating comps. More hours is better, but again, most properties got away from this, and those that still use it don't weigh it heavily, so don't intentionally slow play.
- Offers redeemed. There's a concept in addition to ADT called "MDV" -- market daily value. MDV is your ADT minus the amount you redeemed in comps and offers that trip. Notice these are calculated at THEIR prices, not retail prices. So a free room is assigned a price, but it's a fairly low one (way less than they charge for it). Free meals are assigned a price, but again, it's marked down for this purpose. Freeplay and other "hard comps" (comps which cost them the retail value) are subtracted at face value. That gives them a picture of how much they can expect to make from you. So if they assign the room as $40, your $100 food voucher as costing them $50, and $200 freeplay, and you redeem all of them, you cost them $290. Let's say your theoretical (not actual) losses were $500. And let's say you were seen 3 days. They would subtract $290 from the $500, resulting in $210. Then they'd divide by 3 (days), and your MDV would be $70. Your comps would then be calculated as a player who is worth $70 in profit per day from them, so you wouldn't get anything good. Do not worry about MDV, though. Redeem all the offers you want. This is just a reason to possibly pass on redeeming offers for things you don't actually enjoy at all.
- Overcomping. If you have recently used more benefits/comps than you have generated in theoretical loss, you are considered "overcomped". If you do this for awhile, they might no-offer you, or your offers will be laughably bad.
- New player. If you recently got a card, your offers will be better up front (after 2-3 months pass from your first play) than they will be after that. This is especially true if you play a lot on your first day, then disappear for a few months. On the flip side, once they get used to reliably seeing you, it is very hard to increase your offers, and in many cases they will decrease.
- Restarting player. Someone who hasn't been seen in about 18 months is seen by casinos as almost new player status. So if you show up after 18 months of not being seen at all, and play a good deal, you might get some surprisingly good comps. But this isn't true for all properties (nor is it always true regarding new players, but that's more reliable).
- Always low edge. Some casinos will no-offer you if they detect that you stick to only the very highest payout video poker. However, this only applies in places with good paytables. If all paytables are mediocre or shitty, they're happy to have your action no matter what.
Here's some things which do NOT affect your comps, even though people erroneously believe they do:
- Winning. Casinos are playing a numbers game, and realize some people will get lucky and win. They don't hold this against you. They just want action.
- Tier status. There is a huge misconception that once you move up to a premium tier status, your comps will greatly improve. They won't. Tier status gives guaranteed benefits, but does not affect comps.
- Being a nice guy (or tipping well) to your host or the pit boss. This used to work in some cases, but now everything is being done by computer. Hosts have very little leeway beyond that, and pit bosses don't issue comps at all anymore, in most cases.
- Playing a short time at a very high denomination. Doing 3 spins on a $1000 slot machine is no better than doing 300 spins on a $10 slot.
Finally, and I can't stress this enough... if you have a host, do NOT use him/her to solve hotel billing issues. Often hotel staff will direct you to do this, as it gets you out of their hair, but you are the one who gets fucked in the end. Why? Because hosts don't fix things -- they comp them. For example, let's say you had a $200 food offer with instructions to charge it to your room, and it will come off. So you have a $250 meal, and instead of seeing just $50 on your hotel bill, you see the full $250. They will often send you to your host to fix it. But guess what? Your host won't fix it -- he will just spend $200 MORE of your comps to remove it -- money you could have otherwise used for further comps down the line! It's the equivalent of you coming to me and saying, "Hey Todd, my AT&T bill has a mistake on it and it's $200 too high... can you help me?", and then I steal $200 out of your wallet and say, "Sure... by tomorrow you'll see your bill is down $200!" That's basically what happens when hosts "fix" issues. Instead, decline to get the host involved, and demand they fix the problem on the hotel/casino end. The only exception is if it's something the host arranged himself -- such as him arranging a comp suite and then you get charged for it. In that case, you can go to him to fix it.
I know you aren't gambling at the level to be hosted, but just an FYI to anyone else reading.
Here is an amusing comp story involving a certain casino I won't name. It's not a Caesars or MGM property btw. If I've told you about this privately, please don't name the casino.
I got wind of a situation where if you get a new card and run a lot of high limit machine play on your first day, they will give you big offers. This already worked for some APs I knew, but it was risky because it could change at any point, and I could end up losing my ass running the play, and then get very little as far as comps. But I took a chance and did it. I was planning to play $500/hand baccarat on an electronic machine in a high limit room. This particular casino zeroed comps on various low edge machines on property, but they forgot to do it for baccarat. Oops!
Well, I held my breath and did it. I was emotionally prepared to lose something like $30k if I ran bad. I wasn't sure when I'd abort if it were going really awful.
Anyway, fortunately I didn't run that bad. I lost $4400, which was a little worse than EV, but not that bad considering what could have happened. Then I had to hold my breath again and wait to see if lucrative offers would roll in, or if I'd get fucked. It didn't make me feel good that I saw a TON of advantage players in the place, so I figured they'd be shutting this down shortly. It also made me feel shitty when they removed the baccarat machine entirely, about a week after I played it. Uh oh!
I ran this play in May. Recall the WSOP is in June. Well, I was getting shitty room rates from Caesars that year, so the weekends were expensive. Without my even mentioning it, a radio listener messaged me and asked if I needed any comp rooms for the upcoming weekend. Lucky! However, they were at this exact property where I had run the play, and I obviously did NOT want it seeing evidence I was there, or it could fuck up my big comps, which I estimated would land in July or August.
At first I was going to decline, but then I asked him if he could list me as a second guest in a misspelled way. So instead of guest #2 in the room being Todd Witteles, I had him put me down as "Todd Whittles". Since my name is difficult to spell, I figured it would be fine if I needed to get a key remade at the front desk, as it's close enough. However, the computer would be unable to link Todd Whittles to Todd Witteles, because they're different names!
Mind you, I wasn't sure if being a second guest could link to the casino card just by name only, but I wasn't going to take any chances.
But then I had another issue -- parking! Again, I wasn't sure if my players card would link to the casino for the free parking, so I didn't use it. Instead, I parked next door, aside from loading and unloading luggage, where I used their lot with no card and exited before an hour passed (so it was free).
About a month later, I got some shit offers, like $40 freeplay. However, I didn't panic because this is common, where the first month's offers suck big time. I ignored them.
Then the next offer came in the following month, and it was multiple ones for over $3000 weekly, plus an insane amount of food credit, plus some very nice suite stays.
I milked this for about 4 months before they finally cut me (and others) off, and I couldn't continue redeeming my offers. However, I got the last laugh because I saw this coming, so I booked a shitload of free rooms for as far out as I could, including New Years, and those didn't get revoked, because they only focused on the freeplay.
I also took those big offers to other casinos where I didn't yet have a card, and got some matches.
Was fun while it lasted. Now I'm back to scratching out comp or near-comp rooms wherever I can, and freeplay is a thing of the past. Note that I am not an AP, but am just on the periphery of the community, and sometimes engage in it when the opportunity comes up.
I do have great respect for the AP community and the people in it, so I would never post any details which could hurt the community, nor would I ever help casinos against APs, even if I were paid well to do it.
https://twitter.com/LasVegasLocally/status/1960825038879514727
Domestic being down more than international shows that blaming Trump for the Vegas slowdown is not correct. Trump might have a little to do with it, but the vast majority seems to be a self-inflicted wound that Vegas made upon itself.
It's also important to understand that a lot of Vegas visitors drive in from LA, San Diego, Phoenix, and elsewhere, so air travel doesn't tell the whole story.
‘The whole town is slower’: Las Vegas economy hits the brakes
Las Vegas’ tourism-dependent economy is hitting the brakes. Visitor volume and consumer spending are tumbling in America’s casino capital, and the local unemployment rate is hovering among the highest in the country for big metro areas.
“The whole town is slower,” said Crazy Horse 3 owner Nando Sostilio, whose strip club recently announced a slate of specials to draw more customers.
Southern Nevada relies heavily on outsiders traveling here to spend big eating, drinking, gambling, partying and going to shows and conventions to fuel the economy. But amid a series of financial headwinds — and as President Donald Trump’s trade wars spark widespread economic anxiety — fewer people are taking Vegas vacations this year.
Sluggish Labor Day Outlook:
https://www.reviewjournal.com/busine...vegas-3431000/
Jobless Rate Among Highest in US Again:
https://cdcgaming.com/brief/las-vega...ourism-slumps/
The July 2025 stats are out.
https://www.lvcva.com/research/
(Tourism Tracker tab)
Visitor volume is down 12% for July 2025 vs July 2024
Total Occupancy is down 7.6%
RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) for Strip is down 12.1%
Airport International Passengers is down 5.7%
However, Gaming Revenue on the Strip is up 5.6%
Very similar to the past 2 months.
Obviously hurting the low end places like Flamingo, Luxor and the Strat to name a few. As has been discussed it’s the low end customer not coming, which makes the most sense since they are most affected by the F & B price gouging. Still don’t believe Wynn or Venetian are at all concerned unless the overall economy tanks.
Flamingo is running with $20 rooms Monday-Wednesday this week, plus the resort fee for those without status. So they are desperate for the low end customer that just isn’t coming as much.
And again, while I don’t believe the volume number of 12% because it’s not trackable like occupancy, air passengers and RevPar, no doubt there is less visitors in town. But certainly not to the level of clickbait artists running with titles “Vegas is empty”. Some of the clowns whose videos were posted here make Chrissy Mitchell seem honest.
As I said all along the rest of the year with tell the story of how bad the drop is and just who is being affected.
AI Overview
TSA anticipates record-setting travel for Labor Day
Yes, this year's Labor Day is expected to set a record for air travel, with the TSA anticipating nearly 17.4 million travelers from August 28 through September 3. Friday, August 29, is projected to be the busiest travel day, and the overall period marks the busiest Labor Day travel stretch in 15 years. Travelers are being advised to arrive early for their flights and be prepared for potentially long lines at the airport.
__________________________________
Record number of people flying across the US this weekend. It would be interesting to compare this to the number of people flying in and out of Vegas this weekend.
____________________________________
AI Overview
Las Vegas listed as the sixth most popular destination for Labor Day travel. While a precise average number isn't available, it's estimated that over 600,000 people fly in and out of Las Vegas during the Labor Day weekend, making it one of the busiest travel times of the year. This period is known to be an exceptionally busy travel weekend for the city, alongside events like EDC and Memorial Day.
POKER FAG ALERT! FOR BLOW JOBS SEE SLOPPY JOE, SONATINE AND BCR.
Don't read a lot into midweek room rates. They've been cheap for a long time. Midweek hotel prices have always been a good value in Vegas, even since we entered the gouging era. It's far cheaper to stay in Vegas midweek than any other medium or big city in the US.
The problem is that everything else is a ripoff, and the food is especially irritating because you can't just choose to go without eating.
Reports about the new July stats:
Overall visitors down 12%
Canadian visitors down 25%
(for non-waiver countries, travel visas for a family of four cost $1150)
Expert Steve Hill thinks things could turn around in December.
By the way Dave, I’m not questioning your number on visitation that was reported in multiple places, I just don’t how it’s calculated.
Air passengers aren’t down that high so I assume it includes cars but that’s guesswork and estimates to me. Air and Hotel occupancy are an exact number, so I’m wondering why they don’t match? Unless it’s estimated day travelers, which is possible, the 12% seems high. Short of counting cars from CA. In 15, not sure how it’s possible.
I can’t imagine that many come for a day, but if they aren’t now, they certainly aren’t hurting gaming win.
Time will tell.
I posted the gaming profit info above on this page. However, gaming is not the only revenue stream that is key to Vegas's success (see also: hotels, restaurants, entertainment, transportation, etc). Thus you have sky-high unemployment and foreclosures. Vegas is struggling...
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