*** OFFICIAL *** NFL 2025-26 Thread

[Dan Druff]

I'm interested in opinions of teams which will overperform and underperform this year, compared to expectations.

Here's the teams I expect to overperform:

SF 49ers -- Between the easy schedule and the return of several injured players, not only should this team easily beat its disasterous 6-11 record from last year, but they should rise above the middling expectations for them this year (partially due to last year's results).

NY Giants -- They have a tough schedule, but Russell Wilson should be at least decent and definitely an upgrade over last year, and Malik Nabers will probably be even better. Expectations are low, and I think the Giants will exceed them, though not make the postseason.

LA Chargers -- Jim Harbaugh turned this longtime underperforming squad around, and went 11-6 last year. There's a decent chance this year could be even better, behind Justin Hebert and a solid group behind him.

Tennessee Titans -- This isn't going to be a contending team, but many "experts" are projecting them to be the worst team in the NFL. I see things going better for them, especially if Cam Ward breaks out with a strong season.




Here's the teams I expect to underperform:

Philadelphia Eagles -- This team choked in 23-24, losing 5 of their last 6, and then getting smacked in the first round of the playoffs. They limped into 24-25 with much lower expectations, and quietly succeeded due to being the only team which consistently played well, essentially playing just one bad game the entire season (a 33-16 early loss to the Buccaneers). But does this team really have staying power? Was last year's version actually dominant, or just consistent and good at taking advantage of all of the other teams' flaws? Their defense is young and may not be totally ready. The Eagles may pick up where they left off, but they also could become a new version of the team from two years ago.

KC Chiefs -- Not only did they play several bad games last year, and got stomped in the Super Bowl, but there's some concerns that the team doesn't have much depth, and that both Kelce and Mahomes will play worse this year. Note that Kelce is about to be 36, and Mahomes regressed a little in 2024-25 versus the prior year. Many think this is still a superteam, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall short of expectations.

Miami Dolphins -- Can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? The defense on this team is also a question mark, and there's the perennial problem (especially recently) of this team being unable to win when it's cold on the road. They also got torched by above-.500 teams during the past 2 years, winning just 1 game in that span. I don't see this team finishing with 9 or more wins, and in fact something like 7 wins seems more likely, perhaps fewer if Tua gets hurt.

Cleveland Browns -- It is universally expected that they'll be bad, but I think they'll actually be the worst team in the NFL this year, unless one of the other bad teams suffers major injuries. The QB situation is a mess, and it will get even trickier when DeShaun Watson comes back.

Dallas Cowboys -- They have a weak running game, they also can't defend against the running game, and there's not a lot of reason to believe they'll improve upon their 7-10 record from last year.

Pittsburgh Steelers -- They signed Aaron Rodgers (lol), and if he flops (which he likely will), they've got two fail backups who aren't really suited to be starting NFL QBs. They lost 4 to end the season last year, after a surprising 10-3 start, and I see that continuing this season -- but without the hot start. They won't make the playoffs.


Comments?

[country978]

Better than expected: the NY Jets - they have lots of talent on both sides but had been missing a decent QB. Justin Fields could have a breakout year and a 10 win season.

Worse than expected: the Redskins. Almost made the SB with rookie qb last year but not so this year.

Wilson not the answer for the Giants. Hasn't been good in years and this year will be no different. They'll make the switch to J Dart mid-season and start planning for 2026.

SB prediction: Buffalo beats Detroit.

[The Boz]

Love, love, love Atlanta over 7.5 wins. 3-4 wins minimum in division alone and multiple winnable home and road games IMO.

That is all.

[BCR]

My focus is on that AFC West. Most interesting division to me.

I like the under on Chiefs 11.5. Vet team that cares more about being healthy come playoffs than reg season. I also think Chargers can be really good. Broncos much better. Even the Raiders aren’t horrible, but I’d probably lean to the under 6.5 for +125. Having six games against the others is tough.

I like Chargers +320 to win that division also. I also like over 9.5. Just think they are at least a 10 win team.

Patriots 8.5 win total feels a little optimistic. I like Vrabel, think it’s a good hire, but not a 9 win team imo.

Don’t have any strong opinion other than we are at the point where KC coasts a bit. Winning every game by a FG and refs doesn’t feel likely again.

[lol wow]

colts are gonna win 3 games

[Dan Druff]

Shedeur Sanders (Deion's son) has looked terrible, yet believes he will make the roster: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...spot-struggles

His brother Shilo has already been cut by Tampa.

He's just not very good, and has gotten this far somewhat thanks to nepotism. The Browns really are a huge mess already, and this is another distraction.

[Dan Druff]

Better than expected: the NY Jets - they have lots of talent on both sides but had been missing a decent QB. Justin Fields could have a breakout year and a 10 win season.

Worse than expected: the Redskins. Almost made the SB with rookie qb last year but not so this year.

Wilson not the answer for the Giants. Hasn't been good in years and this year will be no different. They'll make the switch to J Dart mid-season and start planning for 2026.

SB prediction: Buffalo beats Detroit.

The Redskins are the most polarizing team in the NFL. Many are optimistic that their surprisingly good season last year will be indicative of even more improvement this year. Many others think that they ran on the best side of variance, and will fall back to earth this year. I believe the latter is more likely.

Regarding Wilson, I don't think he's the answer necessarily, but he will be serviceable. As I said in the earlier post, I don't think the Giants will be awful. They aren't a playoff team, especially with their schedule, but I think people will be pleasantly surprised by them this year.

[Dan Druff]

I just took another look at the 49ers.

They've got injury issues again.

Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing, and Malik Turner are all out. Demarcus Robinson will be suspended for the first 3 games.

Maybe I'm not so optimistic about them, after all. Still, they've got an easy schedule, so barring further injuries or their "easy" opponents being better than expected, they should do okay this year.

[Dan Druff]

Oh, and I can't stress enough how much you should fade Pittsburgh, especially against good teams. I really think they're going to have a bad year, yet predictions I'm reading online see them as a middle-of-the-road performer.

Detroit also hasn't looked good in the preseason, so they're one to watch regarding regression.

[Daly]

My own personal takes on NFL.

I would be very surprised if New Orleans isn't picking first in the draft next April. I think this team has the potential for the first 0-17 season (I'm not calling for it, but its in play).

Betting against the Patriots is like trying to catch a falling knife. They have made a lot of great moves this past year. The D wasn't that bad last year to start with. Consensus is D Maye has already taken a huge step forward and looks the part. They have the easiest schedule in the league and the win total keeps going up every time you look at it. I have them 9-8 and so does vegas. Its too late to bet the over wins but my favorite bet tied to the Patriots is Vrabel Coach of the year at 11-1. They make the playoffs or come close it will be hard to overlook what he has done with this team.

I think C Ward means business. My favorite pre draft tape was Sanders talking to Ward telling him about all his interests like cars and his music career etc etc. Cam Ward gave him a nickels worth of free advice and told him he better knock that shit off because he is here to run a NFL team back to greatness and has no time for all that other bullshit. I think six or seven to one on ROY for the #1 QB is a great price.

Back to NE for a min..... if its a strange year T Henderson may win ROY on volume of numbers. He factors into being a major part of the production. He is a bargain at 25-1.

I think the most overlooked team is Denver. I think they win AFC West and have a shot to go to the SB. There are bets attached to this like wins and division winner and afc champions.

My favorite play, and I admit its a stretch, is Bo Nix MVP. I have seen it as long as 50-1. If he wins the west over Tay Tay and Pat plus go look at his second half numbers once they took the rookie handcuffs off him. Times 2 = a monster year. He improves on that and all of a sudden its not that ridiculous.

[gut]

Just comparing to what the talking heads i listen to/read are saying:

Teams I like better than most:

Carolina. Offense should be exciting, Bryce took a step forward after that brief benching last year. Defense still blows, but I don't think they are significantly worse than ATL or even Tampa.

Minnesota. My team, so grain of salt and everything. But if JJ is just basically equal to Darnold (who was not as good as casuals think) last year, should be a playoff team. Both sides of trenches greatly improved.

Dallas. A fringe top 10 offense and perfectly average defense assuming Parsons signs. The Jerry Jones circus is again all anyone seems to talk about, and the team itself kind of an afterthought in the division. Can easily see them finishing better than Washington.

Jets. Defense should be back to 2023 levels, whole unit seemed to quit once the firings began last year. Fields can steal some games with his legs.

Would include Pats but basically Daly covered it, and they are getting hype now.

Teams I like less than most:

Honestly, the entire NFC West. Everyone throws out "season from hell" for Niners, but I don't see them rebounding to 2023 anytime soon. I don't believe in Seattle's offense at all. Rams have a late 30's QB with lingering back problems....not inspiring. Arizona is Arizona....they might fucking win the division, who knows. Division schedule is "easy" on paper....but I could easily see one of those finishes where the teams are 9-8, 9-8, 8-9, 8-9.

Pittsburgh. reasons said already by Druff

Washington. Just regression.

Chicago. Yearly Bears hype for something new (coach again) with an inevitable 6-11 finish to come. Worst "revamp" of an OLine ever. Thuney got destroyed in the SB, Jackson was benched by the Rams.

[country978]

Not quite ready to give up on Trevor Lawrence. When he was playing at Clemson people were saying he's the next Elway. Pretty sure this'll be his 4th year and he's had one decent season. Maybe the Jags will surprise us and win 9-10 games? The rookie Travis Henry could be good on both sides of the ball.

Gut I really liked McCarthy at Michigan and hoped the Pats would've taken him over Maye. Kids a winner.

[Daly]

Not quite ready to give up on Trevor Lawrence. When he was playing at Clemson people were saying he's the next Elway. Pretty sure this'll be his 4th year and he's had one decent season. Maybe the Jags will surprise us and win 9-10 games? The rookie Travis Henry could be good on both sides of the ball.

Gut I really liked McCarthy at Michigan and hoped the Pats would've taken him over Maye. Kids a winner.

T-Law was the highest rated QB to come out of college....and I dont think its unfair to give him a few seasons due to the culture in Jax. enough is enough.

Lot of people whos opinion i trust really like JJ McCarthy. Im not as high on him but he checks all the boxes in the Bill Parcels QB checklist. I think you are underselling Maye.

[Daly]

I dont think this is in any way controversial but Joe Burrow is going to end up in a hospital bed by week 7 or he is going to win the MVP.

[country978]

Not quite ready to give up on Trevor Lawrence. When he was playing at Clemson people were saying he's the next Elway. Pretty sure this'll be his 4th year and he's had one decent season. Maybe the Jags will surprise us and win 9-10 games? The rookie Travis Henry could be good on both sides of the ball.

Gut I really liked McCarthy at Michigan and hoped the Pats would've taken him over Maye. Kids a winner.

T-Law was the highest rated QB to come out of college....and I dont think its unfair to give him a few seasons due to the culture in Jax. enough is enough.

Lot of people whos opinion i trust really like JJ McCarthy. Im not as high on him but he checks all the boxes in the Bill Parcels QB checklist. I think you are underselling Maye.

I sure do hope so. One year later and he might be the only pick from last year to be on the team this year. Not sure how the gm kept his job after that one.

Love the Parcells reference. You could see him in the Simms, Hostetler mold. Lotta talent around him and best WR in league?

[The Icon]

Gotta disagree with all the Chiefs downfall talk. Druff says they aren’t very deep? This is the best offense in the Mahomes ERA! The rookie LT looks like he can be an All Pro. Their OL was terrible last year. They roll into the season with Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy all healthy. Kelce lost 20 lbs and is in fantastic shape coming off his recent engagement. This is being billed as the Mahomes revenge tour. Rookie Brashad Smith is a Brian Westbrook clone.

The D is good too. Chris Jones is a stud. McDuffie the best unknown CB in the league. George Karlaftis signed a huge contract. Another rookie in Ashton Gillotte at DE looks like a stud. Fulton signing is huge. Nick Bolton, Leo Chanel, etc round out a solid unit

Best special teams coach and unit in the league. Butker is automatic. Punt God Araiza flips the field.

This is a team that is built for deep playoff runs. But they don’t rest on their laurels either. Thinking they win any less than 10-11 games is wild. I’ve got them at 14-3

[Dan Druff]

Gotta disagree with all the Chiefs downfall talk. Druff says they aren’t very deep? This is the best offense in the Mahomes ERA! The rookie LT looks like he can be an All Pro. Their OL was terrible last year. They roll into the season with Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy all healthy. Kelce lost 20 lbs and is in fantastic shape coming off his recent engagement. This is being billed as the Mahomes revenge tour. Rookie Brashad Smith is a Brian Westbrook clone.

The D is good too. Chris Jones is a stud. McDuffie the best unknown CB in the league. George Karlaftis signed a huge contract. Another rookie in Ashton Gillotte at DE looks like a stud. Fulton signing is huge. Nick Bolton, Leo Chanel, etc round out a solid unit

Best special teams coach and unit in the league. Butker is automatic. Punt God Araiza flips the field.

This is a team that is built for deep playoff runs. But they don’t rest on their laurels either. Thinking they win any less than 10-11 games is wild. I’ve got them at 14-3

As gut mentioned in the Taylor Swift thread, this engagement to Travis Kelce might actually help their chances. The NFL has been exploiting this relationship in order to draw Swift's huge fanbase into the game, and it would very much benefit the league for the Chiefs to own heads while happy Taylor cheers on, and eventually make the Superbowl again. It would not surprise me to see a lot of calls go their way in close games.

But let's go back a year. They struggled through their first 4 games, squeaking by with close wins to start a very unconvincing 4-0. Then they had two pretty good games against the shitty Saints and dysfunctional/injured 49ers. Then they had 3 close ones against the Raiders (lol), Bucs (OT), and Broncos. They were 9-0 but it didn't feel like it. Then they went on a shitty 4-game streak where they lost to the Bills, won by 3 and 2 points against the Panthers and Raiders. Then they beat the (capable) Chargers by 2, beat the Browns easily, won by 8 over the Texans, stomped on the declining Steelers, and lost 38-0 in the final game with everyone resting.

So we will ignore game 17, but let's look at the rest.

Despite a tremendous 15-1 record in those first 16 games, very few were convincing wins, and they struggled to barely get by some very bad teams. This was honestly the worst 15-1 team I've ever seen over the first 16 games, given how inconsistent and non-dominant they looked.

Usually when there's a year like that (in any sport), you're headed for regression, unless you make major changes the following year.

Note this was a fairly easy schedule, too, and they were even fortunate enough to face Pittsburgh when they were in a tailspin instead of the surprisingly good Pittsburgh earlier in the season.

You also can't ignore the fact that Travis Kelce is almost 36. That could be a factor. Mahomes is almost 30, and while he's not likely to have any significant regression, he did slightly regress last year, and we might see it again.

Fortunately for KC, they've got the Taylor Swift engagement factor on their side now, so I'm hesitant to bet against them, unless they look especially bad. There's just too much riding on the Swift/Kelce story for the NFL, and if the Chiefs keep losing close games and fall out of first, that will ruin a lot of the appeal.