I'm interested in opinions of teams which will overperform and underperform this year, compared to expectations.
Here's the teams I expect to overperform:
SF 49ers -- Between the easy schedule and the return of several injured players, not only should this team easily beat its disasterous 6-11 record from last year, but they should rise above the middling expectations for them this year (partially due to last year's results).
NY Giants -- They have a tough schedule, but Russell Wilson should be at least decent and definitely an upgrade over last year, and Malik Nabers will probably be even better. Expectations are low, and I think the Giants will exceed them, though not make the postseason.
LA Chargers -- Jim Harbaugh turned this longtime underperforming squad around, and went 11-6 last year. There's a decent chance this year could be even better, behind Justin Hebert and a solid group behind him.
Tennessee Titans -- This isn't going to be a contending team, but many "experts" are projecting them to be the worst team in the NFL. I see things going better for them, especially if Cam Ward breaks out with a strong season.
Here's the teams I expect to underperform:
Philadelphia Eagles -- This team choked in 23-24, losing 5 of their last 6, and then getting smacked in the first round of the playoffs. They limped into 24-25 with much lower expectations, and quietly succeeded due to being the only team which consistently played well, essentially playing just one bad game the entire season (a 33-16 early loss to the Buccaneers). But does this team really have staying power? Was last year's version actually dominant, or just consistent and good at taking advantage of all of the other teams' flaws? Their defense is young and may not be totally ready. The Eagles may pick up where they left off, but they also could become a new version of the team from two years ago.
KC Chiefs -- Not only did they play several bad games last year, and got stomped in the Super Bowl, but there's some concerns that the team doesn't have much depth, and that both Kelce and Mahomes will play worse this year. Note that Kelce is about to be 36, and Mahomes regressed a little in 2024-25 versus the prior year. Many think this is still a superteam, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall short of expectations.
Miami Dolphins -- Can Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? The defense on this team is also a question mark, and there's the perennial problem (especially recently) of this team being unable to win when it's cold on the road. They also got torched by above-.500 teams during the past 2 years, winning just 1 game in that span. I don't see this team finishing with 9 or more wins, and in fact something like 7 wins seems more likely, perhaps fewer if Tua gets hurt.
Cleveland Browns -- It is universally expected that they'll be bad, but I think they'll actually be the worst team in the NFL this year, unless one of the other bad teams suffers major injuries. The QB situation is a mess, and it will get even trickier when DeShaun Watson comes back.
Dallas Cowboys -- They have a weak running game, they also can't defend against the running game, and there's not a lot of reason to believe they'll improve upon their 7-10 record from last year.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- They signed Aaron Rodgers (lol), and if he flops (which he likely will), they've got two fail backups who aren't really suited to be starting NFL QBs. They lost 4 to end the season last year, after a surprising 10-3 start, and I see that continuing this season -- but without the hot start. They won't make the playoffs.
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Originally Posted by country978
