***Official*** MLB 2025 Thread

[Sanlmar]

On Weds Padres had the number one bullpen ranking last 30 days. Trade didn’t hurt none.

Morally obliged to sprinkle +850 on Padres winning NL West.

I thought trading Rushman would be a monster move. He’s a waste playing behind one of the top 2 catchers in the game - who also got signed to a long term deal. Woulda yielded a haul.

Maybe Rushman gets converted to SS.

You mean Rushing. Unless "Rushman" is a joke I don't understand, but I would think that "Rushmore" (a reference to an obscure 2000 movie) would be more clever.

You're right that Rushing is blocked long term by Smith. This is especially true since Smith has kicked his offense up another notch, and is on a (relatively cheap) long-term contract. I believe he is being trained to play OF, so the Dodgers can get his bat in the lineup eventually. Otherwise, he's permanently blocked by a top catcher and top DH, so he has no path.

I don't think the Dodgers want to trade him because they truly see a path to make him an outfielder.

+850 on the Padres is a great bet. Dodgers have been wildly inconsistent, and Padres piled on a lot of talent at the deadline.

Rushing has more value as a catcher with good bat. As an outfielder he would be a dime a dozen. He could have solved a few problems for the Dodgers as a trade piece

Similarly, Will Smith is an infinitely more valuable player behind the dish than he would be in left field.

It’s math. Just makes no sense at all. Fraudman genius yo

[gut]

You mean Rushing. Unless "Rushman" is a joke I don't understand, but I would think that "Rushmore" (a reference to an obscure 2000 movie) would be more clever.

You're right that Rushing is blocked long term by Smith. This is especially true since Smith has kicked his offense up another notch, and is on a (relatively cheap) long-term contract. I believe he is being trained to play OF, so the Dodgers can get his bat in the lineup eventually. Otherwise, he's permanently blocked by a top catcher and top DH, so he has no path.

I don't think the Dodgers want to trade him because they truly see a path to make him an outfielder.

+850 on the Padres is a great bet. Dodgers have been wildly inconsistent, and Padres piled on a lot of talent at the deadline.

Rushing has more value as a catcher with good bat. As an outfielder he would be a dime a dozen. He could have solved a few problems for the Dodgers as a trade piece

Similarly, Will Smith is an infinitely more valuable player behind the dish than he would be in left field.

It’s math. Just makes no sense at all. Fraudman genius yo

Not sure who needs more whips from the reeds, San or Druff.

San (IMO) was confusing Orioles Rutschman with Rushing.

Druff not figuring that out led to this post.

[Sanlmar]

Rushing has more value as a catcher with good bat. As an outfielder he would be a dime a dozen. He could have solved a few problems for the Dodgers as a trade piece

Similarly, Will Smith is an infinitely more valuable player behind the dish than he would be in left field.

It’s math. Just makes no sense at all. Fraudman genius yo

Not sure who needs more whips from the reeds, San or Druff.

San (IMO) was confusing Orioles Rutschman with Rushing.

Druff not figuring that out led to this post.

Rushing sitting in the dugout eating sunflower seeds night after night is barely worth remembering at all.

[Sanlmar]

It’s 6 moneyline favorites vs trade deadline sellers tomorrow. The only way I don’t end up in debtors prison is that I think I’ll have CLV up the ass. Each game has a powerful lineup argument.

We both know that it’s wrong but it’s much too strong to let it go now


Cubs ✅
Phila ✅
Brewers ✅
Mets ❌
Guards undisputed favorite bet of the day ✅
Padres ✅

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/TalkinYanks/status/1951480118833988035



Additionally, Pittsburgh lost 17-16 in Colorado, thanks to 5 runs allowed by newly anointed closer Dennis Santana.



13-12? 17-16?

Looks like football season is really here.

[tgull]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/TalkinYanks/status/1951480118833988035



Additionally, Pittsburgh lost 17-16 in Colorado, thanks to 5 runs allowed by newly anointed closer Dennis Santana.



13-12? 17-16?

Looks like football season is really here.

A couple nights ago I went to bed when the Braves were up 8 runs on the 8th inning, yes 8 runs in the 8th inning. I had the Braves it was basically even mid game spread which I bet before the run up. They (Reds) scored 8 run scored 8 in the bottom of the inning. Braves won 12-11, and it was a push. I am done until football season. What I have found is how important a guy like Mariano Rivera was. Teams simply have no bullpens any longer fucking scabs, no closers exist. I can't tell you how much money I have lost in the 8th or 9th inning. Just done.

[Sanlmar]

High powered offense?

You know the Dodgers have been shit for the past month.

Dodgers 26 strikeouts last 2 games against vaunted Rays

[Dan Druff]

You mean Rushing. Unless "Rushman" is a joke I don't understand, but I would think that "Rushmore" (a reference to an obscure 2000 movie) would be more clever.

You're right that Rushing is blocked long term by Smith. This is especially true since Smith has kicked his offense up another notch, and is on a (relatively cheap) long-term contract. I believe he is being trained to play OF, so the Dodgers can get his bat in the lineup eventually. Otherwise, he's permanently blocked by a top catcher and top DH, so he has no path.

I don't think the Dodgers want to trade him because they truly see a path to make him an outfielder.

+850 on the Padres is a great bet. Dodgers have been wildly inconsistent, and Padres piled on a lot of talent at the deadline.

Rushing has more value as a catcher with good bat. As an outfielder he would be a dime a dozen. He could have solved a few problems for the Dodgers as a trade piece

Similarly, Will Smith is an infinitely more valuable player behind the dish than he would be in left field.

It’s math. Just makes no sense at all. Fraudman genius yo

Catchers can wear down fast. Will Smith is 30. Dodgers signed Smith for 10 years because it was $14m/year and they foresaw that he'd likely be asking for (and getting) over $100m for a shorter time period, so they figured they might as well save a bit in advance, and get him longer. That was actually a smart move, as weird as it looked in March 2024.

They're under no delusion that he will be valuable to them in 2033.

Rushing is 24. They can put him in OF until Smith is ready to become a bench player. Not ideal, but they don't want to send him away and see him become a superstar. They were aware of Rushing when they signed Smith to that deal.

Their recent catcher history is funny. Dodgers were bouncing from mediocre hitting catcher to mediocre hitting catcher since trading Piazza, but were waiting for the ascension of Keibert Ruiz, who was drafted in 2014 as a 17-year-old, and then seemed to be a far better hitter than the expected. They drafted Will Smith in the first round at overall pick #32 in 2016. They were semi-high on him, but he was not expected to be a long term solution at catcher -- more of a stopgap they could use until Ruiz was ready. He only hit .243 in his minors career. But being 3 years older, he beat Ruiz to give it a shot, immediately started hitting, and Ruiz became expendable.

They correctly saw Ruiz at that point as a guy whose bat was never going to be elite, so he was expendable. So was Hunter Feduccia, who was just sent out. Rushing they still believe can be valuable from his bat alone, so they're willing to wait.

The better question is why they didn't trade Alex Freeland, who was believed to be trade bait, but ultimately didn't move. Looks like they're going to sink or swim with what they already have this year.

[gut]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/TalkinYanks/status/1951480118833988035



Additionally, Pittsburgh lost 17-16 in Colorado, thanks to 5 runs allowed by newly anointed closer Dennis Santana.



13-12? 17-16?

Looks like football season is really here.

A couple nights ago I went to bed when the Braves were up 8 runs on the 8th inning, yes 8 runs in the 8th inning. I had the Braves it was basically even mid game spread which I bet before the run up. They (Reds) scored 8 run scored 8 in the bottom of the inning. Braves won 12-11, and it was a push. I am done until football season. What I have found is how important a guy like Mariano Rivera was. Teams simply have no bullpens any longer fucking scabs, no closers exist. I can't tell you how much money I have lost in the 8th or 9th inning. Just done.

There are no closers anymore, or you could alternatively say everyone is a closer.

30 years ago you'd spend 8 innings hitting vs some junk throwing starter/middle relievers throwing 87-90mph fastballs. Then when a Billy Wagner of Trevor Hoffman came in the 9th firing 98mph heat it meant something. Threw hitters off.

90% of pitchers today are throwing like a Wagner or Hoffman every pitch, every inning.

[Sanlmar]

What? You are icing The Miz and stashing him on IL hours before my MILW bet?

No problem for the best team in baseball

14-1 or some such foolishness


I set fire to fiat on my Ghost Ohtani HR bet today. Still a ghost. “Due Factor” astrology nonsense

[Dan Druff]

Here's a weird stat I bet you didn't know:

Justin Turner has been in MLB for 17 seasons, and a starter for most of them. He's now 40 years old.

He had some huge moments with the Dodgers, and was one of the league's better hitters in the mid-2010s.

How many regular season walkoff HR do you think he had?





































Zero... point... zero.

I'm shocked by this. Turner hit a walkoff HR today, and it was the first of his career in the regular season. He's done it in the postseason before.

[Dan Druff]

There are no closers anymore, or you could alternatively say everyone is a closer.

30 years ago you'd spend 8 innings hitting vs some junk throwing starter/middle relievers throwing 87-90mph fastballs. Then when a Billy Wagner of Trevor Hoffman came in the 9th firing 98mph heat it meant something. Threw hitters off.

90% of pitchers today are throwing like a Wagner or Hoffman every pitch, every inning.

One of the biggest wastes of money is signing a reliever to a long term contract for a lot of money. Almost always ends in disaster. Look at how much the Dodgers wasted on Kirby Yates and Tanner Scott this year.

The smart play is to pile up a lot of cheap relievers and go with the hot hand. Many relievers are excellent for a year or two, then fall apart. I'm not just talking about closers. This is also true for setup men and middle relievers. Look how great the Dodgers bullpen was last year, yet it was comprised of a bunch of cheapo no-namers.

Every once in awhile you'll get a Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera, and those super elite guys are worth the money and the long contracts. But for the vast majority of "closers", you are wasting your money if you sign them to a long term deal.

[Sanlmar]

Dodgers holding a bobble head night for their AAA pitcher. Very inclusive

[Dan Druff]

You have to give Yamamoto credit so far. He was not only valuable during their 2024 World Series run, but he's also gone the entire 2025 season so far without injury, and has pitched very well.

The foursome of Sasaki/Glasnow/Snell/Ohtani has contributed virtually nothing pitching-wise this year.

Dodgers being in first place is pretty amazing considering that it's been Yamamoto and a gaggle of failpitchers thus far. They're in a virtual tie for 4th most runs allowed in the NL. To be fair, some of that is due to a few extreme blowout games where position players pitched.

[Dan Druff]

This is how difficult it is to determine ROY odds.

Pre-season odds:

AL
Jasson Dominguez +300
Jackson Jobe +550
Roman Anthony +700
Kristian Campbell +700
Jacob Wilson +1000
Will Wagner +1200
Coby Mayo +1200
Kumar Rocker +1200
Christian Moore +1400


NL
Roki Sasaki +185
Dylan Crews +350
Matt Shaw +425
Quinn Mathews +900
Bubba Chandler +1000
Jordan Lawlar +1100




Today the runaway candidate for the AL is Nick Kurtz, followed by Roman Anthony and Cam Smith. In the NL, Drake Baldwin leads, Isaac Collins and Agustin Ramirez are virtually tied for second, injured Jacob Misiorwoski in fourth, with Cade Horton and Matt Shaw the other two candidates.

In short, none of the expected NL candidates even show up (except maybe Matt Shaw, a very distant 5th), and only Roman Anthony shows up in the AL version, with Kurtz not even originally listed.

[Dan Druff]

Horton is +3500 on Bovada. You can probably find better elsewhere.

Even +3500 is great value. Nobody is running away with it in the NL. Baldwin is losing playing time due to the crowded C/DH situation in Atlanta, and he has no HR in weeks. Misiorowski is injured and may not pitch much more in 2025. Isaac Collins is nothing special. Agustin Ramirez is very streaky and also has an OBP under .300. Matt Shaw was bad in the first half and he will lose playing time thanks to the Cubs acquiring Willi Castro.

If Horton continues on his hot streak, he could easily be the favorite, unless Baldwin goes on another hot run, or Ramirez crushes it again.