*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

We won with a home dog yesterday, let's do it again.

Ignore the 11.46 ERA of rookie Carson Palmquist (not to be confused with Carson Palmer). That's based upon one start. In the minors, he had a 1.14 WHIP and a 45/18 K:BB ratio in 35 innings. The K numbers are very impressive!

Taijuan Walker has always been overrated, and has a deceptively good 2.62 ERA. Ignore that. Most of that was based upon some good early starts, and he's been doing bulk relief the last few weeks. He was one of the worst pitchers in MLB in 2024.

The Rockies on the road are a catastrophe, and while their 5-18 home record is no great shakes, they've always performed well overall at home compared to the moneyline, when facing good teams. This goes back many years.

Palmquist has a much better chance than Walker to throw an unexpected gem today.

If it makes you feel better, the public is going HARD for Philly here, yet the line has moved in the direction of making the Rockies a smaller dog. What does that tell you?

Colorado (Palmquist) +175 vs Philadelphia (Tai. Walker)

[Dan Druff]

Narrator: Palmquist did not throw an unexpected gem.

[go_buccos]

Narrator: Palmquist did not throw an unexpected gem.

Just blindly bet Rockies opponent -1.5, -2.5, -3.5, -4.5, etc until the books finally adjust and start hanging Rockies +500 and/or +3.5 -110 every single night, regardless of pitching matchup. They’re that bad.

The lack of talent on both sides is one thing, but unlike previous iterations, this team also doesn’t care, and that shows up in the horrendous mental lapses defensively and on the base paths.

To be fair, this is a franchise that due to the altitude sorta permanently has one hand tied behind its back. There’s a formula to win there though: just absolutely load up on bats and play a bunch of 15-13 games in Denver. They will never get any decent free agent pitching for obvious reasons.

Unfortunately, the owner is not only cheap, but cheap AND absent.

[The Boz]

Narrator: Palmquist did not throw an unexpected gem.

Ranger Suarez has been inconsistent since coming back from a spring training injury but the Rockies are the cure for pitchers struggling. While the Rockies throw out another unknown with a 1-6 record and a 8.78 ERA today.

Phillies have been pounding out the hits this series and could have scored 15 last night without a base running blunder and another key hit or 2.

Not worth laying the odds (-300) but no way you can bet the Rockies either.

Noon West Coast start.

[go_buccos]

Narrator: Palmquist did not throw an unexpected gem.

Ranger Suarez has been inconsistent since coming back from a spring training injury but the Rockies are the cure for pitchers struggling. While the Rockies throw out another unknown with a 1-6 record and a 8.78 ERA today.

Phillies have been pounding out the hits this series and could have scored 15 last night without a base running blunder and another key hit or 2.

Not worth laying the odds (-300) but no way you can bet the Rockies either.

Noon West Coast start.

I think -300 is actually value here.

[Dan Druff]

Narrator: Palmquist did not throw an unexpected gem.

Just blindly bet Rockies opponent -1.5, -2.5, -3.5, -4.5, etc until the books finally adjust and start hanging Rockies +500 and/or +3.5 -110 every single night, regardless of pitching matchup. They’re that bad.

The lack of talent on both sides is one thing, but unlike previous iterations, this team also doesn’t care, and that shows up in the horrendous mental lapses defensively and on the base paths.

To be fair, this is a franchise that due to the altitude sorta permanently has one hand tied behind its back. There’s a formula to win there though: just absolutely load up on bats and play a bunch of 15-13 games in Denver. They will never get any decent free agent pitching for obvious reasons.

Unfortunately, the owner is not only cheap, but cheap AND absent.

Last year I did well taking Rockies at home against good teams.

This year they're now 5-19 at home, and it's a different matter. They did get 5 runs last night, but gave up 9, so I was kinda right that they would score, but unfortunately Palmquist got smacked around hard.

You are probably onto something regarding road games though. Not only are they 3-22 on the road, but they just don't score, save those two fluke games recently at Arizona (14 runs, and almost lost!) and San Diego (9 runs, won).

Note that they've put up 3, 4, and 5 runs in their 3 home losses this series against the Phillies.

But here are the road run outputs for Colorado thus far, starting from the first game on 3/28:

2, 2, 4, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 3, 2, 7, 3 (11 innings), 4, 2, 3, 0, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 0, 14, 0

As you see, it's mostly 0-3 runs scored, with 6 shutouts, and 11 games where they had 0-1 runs. Out of 25 games!

[go_buccos]

Let’s try this for one week:

Yankees:

-1.5 -218
-2.5 -152
-3.5 -107
-4.5 +128
-5.5 +180
-6.5 +238
-7.5 +323

All are “X” to win one unit if a - number or one unit to win “X” if a + number.

[gut]

LAD @ NYM o8.5

[gut]

Let’s try this for one week:

Yankees:

-1.5 -218
-2.5 -152
-3.5 -107
-4.5 +128
-5.5 +180
-6.5 +238
-7.5 +323

All are “X” to win one unit if a - number or one unit to win “X” if a + number.

Yankees or Brewers?

[tgull]

LAD @ NYM o8.5

This is a great bet. Thanks, I think this is an easy one.

This just screams like a 10-5 game.

[gut]

LAD @ NYM o8.5

This is a great bet. Thanks, I think this is an easy one.

This just screams like a 10-5 game.

Not the way I saw it, but thanks Todger bullpen

[go_buccos]

Let’s try this for one week:

Yankees:

-1.5 -218
-2.5 -152
-3.5 -107
-4.5 +128
-5.5 +180
-6.5 +238
-7.5 +323

All are “X” to win one unit if a - number or one unit to win “X” if a + number.

Of course the one day I decide to post this the Rockies win…

Let’s try again:

Yankees:

-1.5 -218
-2.5 -150
-3.5 -102
-4.5 +137
-5.5 +202
-6.5 +256
-7.5 +336

0-7, -8.77u yesterday

[go_buccos]

Let’s try this for one week:

Yankees:

-1.5 -218
-2.5 -152
-3.5 -107
-4.5 +128
-5.5 +180
-6.5 +238
-7.5 +323

All are “X” to win one unit if a - number or one unit to win “X” if a + number.

Of course the one day I decide to post this the Rockies win…

Let’s try again:

Yankees:

-1.5 -218
-2.5 -150
-3.5 -102
-4.5 +137
-5.5 +202
-6.5 +256
-7.5 +336

0-7, -8.77u yesterday

10-run 5th by the Yankees gets us back on track.

[go_buccos]

7-0, +12.31u

Total: 7-7, +3.54u

[go_buccos]

7-0, +12.31u

Total: 7-7, +3.54u

Back at it today.

Yankees:

-1.5 -192
-2.5 -138
-3.5 +104
-4.5 +144
-5.5 +198
-6.5 +272
-7.5 +362

By the way all these lines are from DK. You may find better numbers elsewhere.

[go_buccos]

It’s all or nothing so far.

0-7, -8.3u yesterday

Total: 7-14, -4.76u

Rockies go to Chicago today.

Cubs:

-1.5 -155
-2.5 +105
-3.5 +158
-4.5 +232
-5.5. +333
-6.5 +475
-7.5 +660

[Dan Druff]

I'm going the ploppy route today.

San Diego (R. Vasquez) -149 vs Miami (R. Weathers)

[Daly]

Should be a interesting weekend coming up for the PGA.

Scottie under 3-1 and I think I can make the case that he may be worth it. Guys the best there is. Hes in form right now. Hes won recently. Historically he wins here.

I did spread some around on him.

But

There are three others that have a lot of similar, but bot exact, successful history here and recent good/great performance.

My old pal SW KIM at 40-1

My boy toy of 2025 Sepp Straka 40-1

And my special call for this weekend D McCarthy 80-1

I think any of these 3 could sneak in there and beat him at considerably better odds.

[Dan Druff]

I'm going the ploppy route today.

San Diego (R. Vasquez) -149 vs Miami (R. Weathers)

Squeaked by here in extras, despite an early 3-0 deficit.