Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[Tellafriend]

a little levity for our morning

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[big dick]

6 votes have officially been counted in the presidential race. Tied 3 to 3. How poetic.

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Again, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.

[Daly]

If the market is to be believed Wisconsin is back to a coin flip.

[VaughnP]

This thread is starting to remind more and more of when I tried to convince you all to buy Ethereum and Bitcoin when they cratered to btc 2k and eth to 50 dollars. I actually bought quite a few Ethereum in the low 40s if I remember correctly.

I mean, I don't even know where to start, but I think I need a crystal ball avatar. No one listened in 2016. 2020 wasn't fun because I knew he was going to lose, but correctly predicted that the polls would be off and the race would be much tighter than what it seemed (43k votes).

[VaughnP]

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https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1852519698958889065

If you assume that Trump is winning AZ, NC, and GA then give Kamala a generous 50/50 chance in Michigan, 45% chance in Wisconsin and a 40% chance in PA, ignoring scenarios that are actually possible like Trump winning NV and NH, needing to sweep all three means her chances would be 9%. Based on what we know of voter registration changes, polling, and early voting, it's not unrealistic to say Trump is a 4 to 1 favorite in PA and that the extensive data available there and what it shows means conditions are likely to have bleed over into the other rust belt states. If you assumed all three are 50/50 her chances only increase to 12.5%. If you assume she is a 3 to 2 favorite in Michigan and 50/50 in the other two then her odds only increase to a 15% chance. The fact that PolyMarket is now back again below 60/40 given what is known just shows how retarded the general population is and blinded by bias people are when it comes to politics.