a little levity for our morning
https://twitter.com/i/status/1853645610810786049
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Again, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.
If the market is to be believed Wisconsin is back to a coin flip.
I mean, I don't even know where to start, but I think I need a crystal ball avatar. No one listened in 2016. 2020 wasn't fun because I knew he was going to lose, but correctly predicted that the polls would be off and the race would be much tighter than what it seemed (43k votes).
YOU KNOW JACK SHIT ABOUT WISCONSIN. TRUMP LOST THE LAST ELECTION BY 30K VOTES. MILWAUKEE AND MADISON MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF THE ELECTOR. IF YOU GIVE TRUMP THREE OF THE MOST POPULATED REPUBLICAN COUNTIES CALLED THE W.O.W COUNTIES. WAUKESHA, OZAUKEE, AND WASHINGTON. HE STILL LOSES. WAUKESHA COUNTY OVER THE PAST 12 YEARS HAS BEEN VOTING MORE AND MORE DEMOCRAT. THEIR REPUBLICAN MAYOR ENDORSED HARRIS A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. NO SHOT HE WINS WISCONSIN.
Do not doubt me again. Ever.
5% systemic polling error feels low, but you are better at this shit than me. It's strange how I have felt the same ever since the two debates. Hers put her in the game, and JD's shifted it back a little, but to me, it has always came down to did the pollsters over adjust to being so off in 2016 and 2020 or not? Who is up 1 this week or 2 the next is irrelevant. I still think Trump on the ballot is just a different beast than anything else. The Trump people I know who are die hards couldn't name their mayor or senator, but they will be there on Tuesday 100%.
So here is where Im at.
5% chance we have nation wide polling errors which produce an unexpected outcome or 3 three.
Expected outcome = Az, Nc, Ge for Trump….. and at this point Im conceding Mi to Harris as she is now upwards of -200 to win Mi.
Nevada and its 6 votes are probably going to be electorally useless.
25% chance Wi breaks for Trump and gives him the election win with 272/278 votes. Harris is currently -150 there.
70% chance the entire election all comes down to Pa.
Trump is currently -135/+125 in Pa. By my projection it is very very likely it will decide everything.
This one strikes me as tricky even to books. When they react that large to a Selzer poll, it tells me they don't have some insider crystal ball on this one either. Either Selzer is right and an army of old ladies are deeply offended their granddaughters have less rights than they did or she caught a weird set. I don't believe she is corrupt as she has faced the scorn of liberals before, but she is 68 and who knows? Maybe a $5 million payout for retirement was worth her stellar record. Almost everyone will sell out for the right number.
I have felt for the longest time it's Trump 65/35, but I am captive to what surrounds me like anyone, and what surrounds me isn't 65 year old women.
I will think Trump has it in the bag and then see a poll where abortion and the economy are dead ass tied for biggest issue in a Wisconsin or PA poll and think wtf? Really? Abortion ruling has been bigger than I expected when it came down, but top issue? Not all who answer it as top issue are Dems. Its super important to evangelicals also, but top issue for anyone seems crazy.
I don't know if I'd say landslide, but still think one wins comfortably. I will be shocked if the polls are this dead on. As someone who doesn't care all that much, its like a game I haven't bet on where I hope it's chaos and close and fun, but usually when I want a close game it's 42-3 in the third and I am watching netflix.
Well clearly grandma who has never been off by more than a few points being off by 16 or more? She took the retirement bonus. The newspaper game is dead and I am sure her retirement just became more comfortable. The game is the game.
Congrats to Vaughn and Tgull. Most consistently right this election. I hated that I almost always agreed with them. I didn't care about the presidency, to me that was a choice of I am at a party and two 300lb chicks want to fuck me. Sure that's a binanry choice if I must get laid, but I can stay home and jack off. I hated that if they were right it meant a wave. Oh well, life goes on and it's easier to run against in the future if the dems find a real candidate and quit with the woke shit.
I didn't see how it couldn't be a systemic polling error one way or the other. Either the old lady was right and Kamala was going to win everything, or she got paid and it was going to be 2016 all over again. This one was 42-3 in the third quarter as I feared,
Congrats to Trump voters. You got your second term.
[QUOTE=BCR;1137993]The issue for me was the SCOTUS. Forget abortion rulings, those come and go over time. But there is no doubt with unchecked power she, given her leftist tendencies, would have added 5 justices just to get her way which would have destroyed this judicial system. Now that is over. You should be thankful. The two wars overseas, and the border will be fixed. The economy, who knows, its so much larger than a President.
This thread will disappear in a few days. But make not mistake about it, this was the thread of the year. I did it again. And I am not even compensated from the owner with the profits!
Here are the final polls from 2020:
Here are the current polls:
The actual outcome was Biden (thanks to mail in ballot harvesting) 4.5%. Despite the 4.5% edge, the election was actually decided by roughly 43,000 votes - Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia - which I'm sure was all kosher.
Note the obvious extreme bias of the 2020 final libtardian polls. If the election were held today, Trump wins, but it is still close. If the polls have Kamala up .5% it's not unrealistic to suggest she's actually down 4+%. To win the election she's almost surely going to have to have a 6.5% reversal at minimum. Joe was supposedly up 7 points on this date, Hillary 8 points.
Despite the ongoing billion dollar propaganda operation, this is the actual reality of the situation. It's hard to account for Kamala's states of Libtardia bias, so she could possibly be down even more.
Calling bullshit on these NYT polls. No way is she polling better than Biden in these states while being down 7.5 points of where he was in the RCP average. She is not "ahead by a couple of points nationally".
I'm surprised how nobody caught JD Vance reciting this about polling almost word for word two days later in a podcast interview.
What even is your argument? Does her spending in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada look to be that of the candidate supposedly ahead? Trump is spending significantly less, and the media would have one believe that the current states most on the line for either candidate besides the obvious Pennsylvania are Georgia and North Carolina.
Ads target individuals, not electoral votes. Basing the ad spending on electoral votes is obviously a gross oversimplification. Wisconsin has a population of 5.9 million, Georgia has a population of 10.9 million, and North Carolina has 10.7 million. When you break this down by eligible voting population it gets crazier. WI 4.5 million, GA 7.8 million, NC 8.1 million.
Her campaign is spending $7.5 per eligible voter in Wisconsin, $5 per in GA, $3.70 per person in NC. Feel free to pull the eligible voter data yourself. This was based off the totals from the last election and rounded up.
Go back and look at the spending from the month before, Trump's campaign spent considerably less than this month. One candidate is in a countering and holding pattern, the other is in a desperation pattern. What's your explanation for her extreme spending in Nevada? Kamala's campaign has more money, but this doesn't mean they will just waste it.
Nevada is their hope to counter Trump winning Pennsylvania while planning for more Georgia shenanigans. They've been campaigning in North Carolina and testing the ad effectiveness to see if they can move the needle at all for this same scenario.
Though a less likely scenario, her winning Nevada guards against Trump losing every blue wall state and still winning. High quality public polls for New Hampshire would be interesting. RFK was doing better there than any state, and remember Kamala campaigned there after he dropped out while simultaneously forcing stories about the "pathetic", "sad", "sorry" state of Trump's NH campaign.
When you understand the desperation and that the mainstream media is essentially the propaganda arm of the DNC, how they've covered GA and NC makes much more sense.
The race is not a toss up. She is polling 3 or 4 points worse in the battleground states on average than Biden did in 2020. The public polling, despite the multitude of intentionally biased, fake, partisan pollsters, is starting to reflect what the Trump internal polling has had since she entered the race. This is three straight elections of these polls conveniently tightening to save face as the campaigns end. Trump's internals were leaked several times, +2 or so across all seven states.
These were the 2016 voting demographics.
ChatGPT:
While precise percentages for male vs. female early and Election Day voting can vary by election cycle, some recent data offers a general estimate. In the 2020 U.S. election, for example:
1. **Early Voting**:
- Women made up **about 54-55%** of early and mail-in voters.
- Men comprised approximately **45-46%** of early and mail-in voters.
2. **Election Day Voting**:
- Men made up a slightly larger share of in-person Election Day voters, comprising roughly **52-53%**.
- Women accounted for approximately **47-48%** of Election Day voters.
These percentages show that while women are more likely to vote early, men make up a greater share of those voting on Election Day. This pattern can vary slightly by state and election type (e.g., midterms vs. presidential), but these figures provide a general trend seen in recent high-turnout elections.
2020.
What does this mean? That unless you believe Kamala is doing better with white women than Biden and Hilldawg, then spinning the battleground turn out so far by gender as some kind of positive for her is literally retarded. It's actually the opposite, and then remember all the indicators of Trump performing significantly better this time among blacks and Hispanics. Factor those increases into both sides of the gender equation. The betting markets have fell for these gender gaps and the usual suspect state polling released over the last two days.
The amount of propaganda being released is at an all time high. Trump has never in any of the previous elections had anywhere close to as clear of a lead than he does now.
What a close, "tossup" race guys. Can't believe it.
There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.
Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.
Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.
The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?
It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.
POKER FAG ALERT! FOR BLOW JOBS SEE SLOPPY JOE, SONATINE AND BCR.
There isnt much of a mystery here.
in 2020 Biden voters were people were concerned about Trump, hated Covid and wanted a change.
This time around Covid is effectively gone, between 15-18 million* young people didnt vote, didnt like the idea of Harris, and werent as concerned about how things are going.
Harris did not engage younger voters particularly well, so they stayed home.
Tim Walz was a reasonable enough choice but didnt shine as such.
The Democrats needed to change horse much earier, in a clearer manner, pick someone who appeared younger than Walz and engage much better.
*From the initial information I have seen, this may change.
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You def deserve a tip of the hat for keeping this thread updated. It was worth reading all the way through.
Well done
Make no mistake about it, I called this race 100%. All banter aside, I am the best poster in a generation. I might gracefully step aside from the forums. I literally can do no more. I feel like I contributed enough at this point.
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