https://centerforpolitics.org/crysta...-2024-ratings/
Look, these guys say Harris will win. It must be true!
https://centerforpolitics.org/crysta...-2024-ratings/
Look, these guys say Harris will win. It must be true!
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
https://centerforpolitics.org/crysta...-2024-ratings/
Look, these guys say Harris will win. It must be true!
Frankly its the exact same thing i wrote a page ago.
The above update was from 10/17.Above were the opening Pinny odds on 9/12/2024 for each battleground state. Current Pinny odds below:
EC Winner: Trump -177, Harris +150
Arizona: Trump -260
Florida: Trump -1870
Georgia: Trump -243
Maine: OFF
Michigan TIE -110
Nevada: Harris -115
New Hampshire: Harris -700
North Carolina: Trump -208
PA: Trump -143
Texas: Trump -2225
Virginia: Harris -680
Wisconsin: Trump -123
Popular vote winner: (just added) Harris -252
11/4 Pinny update/comparison as of 6:30 PM CST:
EC Winner: Trump -162/Harris +141
Popular Vote: Trump +271/Harris -326
Arizona: Trump -339
Florida: Trump -2500
Georgia: Trump -211
Iowa: (just added) Trump -605
Michigan: Harris -205
Nevada: Trump -135
New Hampshire: Harris -534
North Carolina: Trump -226
Pennsylvania: Trump -131
Virginia: Harris -1206
Wisconsin: Harris -147
Some other markets just added:
Democrat total states won: 21.5 O -162
Republican total states won: 29.5 U -194
Trump wins BOTH MI and PA: +245
Trump wins BOTH MI and WI: +259
Harris scoops Rust Belt: (PA/MI/WI) +156
Trump scoops AZ/NV/NC/GA: +115
Trump scoops all 7 battlegrounds: +386
Harris OVER 51.999% popular vote: +150
Record turnout according to uselectionatlas.org: YES -172
County markets:
Bucks, PA: Harris -228
Clark, NV (Vegas) OFF
Erie, PA: Trump -142
Kent, MI: (Grand Rapids) Harris -230
Macomb, MI: (Detroit burbs) OFF
Maricopa, AZ: (Phoenix) Harris -121
Pinellas, FL: (Tampa Bay) Trump -331
Values as I see them at these prices:
MONSTER value: (3 units each)
Trump -605 in Iowa. (It opened yesterday something like -408 so best value already gone. That poll was complete quackery. I would bet it up to -900)
Trump -135 in Nevada. (Jon Ralston knows his shit and he's pretty much called it for Trump already)
Harris +184 in North Carolina (That asshat tranny-loving GOP guv candidate has a legit chance to cost him the entire state)
Solid value: (2 units each)
Trump popular vote +271
Trump +837 in Virginia
Trump to scoop NC/NV/AZ/GA: NO -139. (See above)
Record turnout YES -172
Thin value: (1 unit each)
Harris EC Winner +141
Trump +121 in Wisconsin
Trump +167 in Michigan
Harris scoops PA/WI/MI: YES +156
Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds: NO -501 (again this is mostly due to the NC situation)
Really not sure why the market has moved so heavily for Harris in Michigan in the last week. It was -110/-110 a few days ago.
Gonna be a VERY interesting day tomorrow.
Good luck to all who have wagered.
Largest holdings all green going in to election morning. Hopefully not a sea of red in the evening.
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x593...d94Cc24408FE84
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1853673781350260902
Couldn't be any closer, according to Nate.
I think if anybody says they know who's going to win the election, you can disregard their opinion.
im very excite
6 votes have officially been counted in the presidential race. Tied 3 to 3. How poetic.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1853666986489688198
Given you are in the green everywhere, are you tempted to bank the 3k plus since it's a flip? Just like the sweat and figure you can maneuver out at the right time?
The election might be a flip, but that doesn't mean my bets are. Most of my money is on the popular vote which I think is very unlikely to lose (but of course, still possible). And I still think is undervalued (though not as badly as before).Given you are in the green everywhere, are you tempted to bank the 3k plus since it's a flip? Just like the sweat and figure you can maneuver out at the right time?
Also, I like to gamble. Presidential elections are the most beautiful thing in the world to bet on.
This swinging back the other way is only because of all of that data that doesn't exist.
Again, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.
Again, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
To whom it may concern. Nevada
https://twitter.com/LanceupperPI/status/1853523066703556789
Famous lst words but there weren't too many electoral maps where Nevada mattered
2016 was before the abortion rulingAgain, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.
There's a lot of really sad, best for business type of predictions coming out from these so called experts, including hack Nate tinfoil. There have been people for months predicting he would end at 50/50. And of course that was what happened with an ever so slight edge given to the preferred candidate of the few people dumb enough to pay for his content. His model is of course biased, and the one thing you can take away from it is that Trump's odds are certainly underestimated by it.
I lost a lot of respect for Nate. He herded to 50-50 so he will not get hurt. He was an outlier in 2016 saying Trump has a good chance to win. Obviously, in 2024 they got to him.
All 6 voters there are Registered Republicans and all voted for Nikki Haley in the primary. The state might be heavily Libertarian, but I don’t see too many Libertarians voting for Nikki Haley.Again, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.
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