Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

I am closing down this thread. Polls now are irrelevant given the election is Tuesday. I am starting a new thread for Election Day. I want to thank those that made this the most viewed and participated thread of the year. It cements my standing now as the #1 PFA poster, although Tine is right there as well. Unfortunately Tyde is forever banned, but I probably would have overtaken him anyway.

Thanks you PFA! We move on from here.

Obviously I missed it. Why was Tyde permabanned? And what’s the over/under on how long until he is unbanned?

He was calling Druffs mom and harassing her

[Walter Sobchak]

Obviously I missed it. Why was Tyde permabanned? And what’s the over/under on how long until he is unbanned?

He was calling Druffs mom and harassing her

[tgull]

He was calling Druffs mom and harassing her

He fell off the wagon after about a year of sobriety. It happens, I have been lobbying for a second chance for him.

[BetCheckBet]

He fell off the wagon after about a year of sobriety. It happens, I have been lobbying for a ninth chance for him.

[VaughnP]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1853218979088662623

The only thing she does know is the talking point she was ordered to memorize. One has to wonder if she had anything to do with this poll at all outside of almost surely being paid in someway to attach her name to it.

[PLOL]

Seeing so many 270-268 maps on my feed. It's probably the result I'd most like to see because it'd be the most dramatic and tilt-inducing for the country. You'd also see major pressure for Nebraska to change their electoral award system in the future. Though if they did that there's prob some game theory result where Maine changes theirs too.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/peterwildeford/status/1853276085284180141

[Daly]

Seeing so many 270-268 maps on my feed. It's probably the result I'd most like to see because it'd be the most dramatic and tilt-inducing for the country. You'd also see major pressure for Nebraska to change their electoral award system in the future. Though if they did that there's prob some game theory result where Maine changes theirs too.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/peterwildeford/status/1853276085284180141

I have a you make it 270towin map thread. The 270-268 is Harris path to victory. No surprises, sweeps the wall.

I think its her only path.

Thing is this isnt like a traditional sports parlay where winning the three states is -900….. the three are heavily correlated it makes it a possible outcome. I wouldn't say likely, but certainly possible.

[PLOL]

Seeing so many 270-268 maps on my feed. It's probably the result I'd most like to see because it'd be the most dramatic and tilt-inducing for the country. You'd also see major pressure for Nebraska to change their electoral award system in the future. Though if they did that there's prob some game theory result where Maine changes theirs too.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/peterwildeford/status/1853276085284180141

I have a you make it 270towin map thread. The 270-268 is Harris path to victory. No surprises, sweeps the wall.

I think its her only path.

Thing is this isnt like a traditional sports parlay where winning the three states is -900….. the three are heavily correlated it makes it a possible outcome. I wouldn't say likely, but certainly possible.

It's about +1200 actually. $78 to win $1k if you'd like

https://polymarket.com/event/kamala-...=1730696410522

[Walter Sobchak]

I have a you make it 270towin map thread. The 270-268 is Harris path to victory. No surprises, sweeps the wall.

I think its her only path.

Thing is this isnt like a traditional sports parlay where winning the three states is -900….. the three are heavily correlated it makes it a possible outcome. I wouldn't say likely, but certainly possible.

It's about +1200 actually. $78 to win $1k if you'd like

https://polymarket.com/event/kamala-...=1730696410522

Exactly 270 with exactly that combination of states should be higher, at least +2000.

[PLOL]

It's about +1200 actually. $78 to win $1k if you'd like

https://polymarket.com/event/kamala-...=1730696410522

Exactly 270 with exactly that combination of states should be higher, at least +2000.

I agree. Actually I just looked and oddly you can get Dems to win by 0-4 ECs for a little cheaper, 7 cents. So there's no reason to bet that market.
https://polymarket.com/event/elector...=1730700344136

Personally my biggest lotto is Dems to win by 35-64 ECs at 7 cents. I'll take the extra 25 EC spread for the same price, thanks. $1200 to win $17k

[Walter Sobchak]

Exactly 270 with exactly that combination of states should be higher, at least +2000.

I agree. Actually I just looked and oddly you can get Dems to win by 0-4 ECs for a little cheaper, 7 cents. So there's no reason to bet that market.
https://polymarket.com/event/elector...=1730700344136

Personally my biggest lotto is Dems to win by 35-64 ECs at 7 cents. I'll take the extra 25 EC spread for the same price, thanks. $1200 to win $17k

That last bet is a very good bet.

[tgull]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1853218979088662623

The only thing she does know is the talking point she was ordered to memorize. One has to wonder if she had anything to do with this poll at all outside of almost surely being paid in someway to attach her name to it.

Spot on. A 3rd party did this poll and she simply attached her name to it, maybe because of a payday, maybe advanced TDS, maybe both. Like I said this reminds me of the ABC poll the week before the 2020 election showing Bide up in WI by 17.

Ann needs to explain how after the debate Trump was up 19 in her own poll over Biden. Probably the same polling firm who wanted Biden out of the race.

[tgull]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852480473882058975

This guy nailed it before Ann's poll came out.

[Daly]

So here is where Im at.

5% chance we have nation wide polling errors which produce an unexpected outcome or 3 three.

Expected outcome = Az, Nc, Ge for Trump….. and at this point Im conceding Mi to Harris as she is now upwards of -200 to win Mi.

Nevada and its 6 votes are probably going to be electorally useless.

25% chance Wi breaks for Trump and gives him the election win with 272/278 votes. Harris is currently -150 there.

70% chance the entire election all comes down to Pa.

Trump is currently -135/+125 in Pa. By my projection it is very very likely it will decide everything.

[BCR]

So here is where Im at.

5% chance we have nation wide polling errors which produce an unexpected outcome or 3 three.

Expected outcome = Az, Nc, Ge for Trump….. and at this point Im conceding Mi to Harris as she is now upwards of -200 to win Mi.

Nevada and its 6 votes are probably going to be electorally useless.

25% chance Wi breaks for Trump and gives him the election win with 272/278 votes. Harris is currently -150 there.

70% chance the entire election all comes down to Pa.

Trump is currently -135/+125 in Pa. By my projection it is very very likely it will decide everything.

5% systemic polling error feels low, but you are better at this shit than me. It's strange how I have felt the same ever since the two debates. Hers put her in the game, and JD's shifted it back a little, but to me, it has always came down to did the pollsters over adjust to being so off in 2016 and 2020 or not? Who is up 1 this week or 2 the next is irrelevant. I still think Trump on the ballot is just a different beast than anything else. The Trump people I know who are die hards couldn't name their mayor or senator, but they will be there on Tuesday 100%.

This one strikes me as tricky even to books. When they react that large to a Selzer poll, it tells me they don't have some insider crystal ball on this one either. Either Selzer is right and an army of old ladies are deeply offended their granddaughters have less rights than they did or she caught a weird set. I don't believe she is corrupt as she has faced the scorn of liberals before, but she is 68 and who knows? Maybe a $5 million payout for retirement was worth her stellar record. Almost everyone will sell out for the right number.

I have felt for the longest time it's Trump 65/35, but I am captive to what surrounds me like anyone, and what surrounds me isn't 65 year old women.

I will think Trump has it in the bag and then see a poll where abortion and the economy are dead ass tied for biggest issue in a Wisconsin or PA poll and think wtf? Really? Abortion ruling has been bigger than I expected when it came down, but top issue? Not all who answer it as top issue are Dems. Its super important to evangelicals also, but top issue for anyone seems crazy.

I don't know if I'd say landslide, but still think one wins comfortably. I will be shocked if the polls are this dead on. As someone who doesn't care all that much, its like a game I haven't bet on where I hope it's chaos and close and fun, but usually when I want a close game it's 42-3 in the third and I am watching netflix.

[Sanlmar]

Yesterday in passing I said to my wife, “Well, it’s 2 days til the election”.

She surprised my a bit by sheepishly saying, “I think I lean Harris”.

We never discuss politics. I have been married longer than you and I know a few things.

I have not asked my kids. I NEVER discuss politics with friends the past decade. It’s funny but there is an unspoken understanding that it’s inappropriate. We will discuss sex and marriage and such but politics is too private. It’s unattractive. In a state where our presidential votes don’t matter it’s unproductive too.

The wife fills her thoughts with friends, family, travel and Hallmark. I suspect she is neurotypical for her age group politically. Nobody is gonna poll her.

But empty nest women have time. She isn’t running around picking up kids from practice, making dinner and getting ready for work. She has time to vote.

I don’t do Facebook and social media. I divorced cable. I got so little use for the political podcast industry. Clarity is my gift.

PFA fills a useful role as the characters here are a known quantity.

[BCR]

I had to laugh at Nate Silver. He has to hate what an enigma Trump is as a candidate worse than anyone. Trying to figure out Trump voters way harder than baseball.

He was the unassailable boy genius in 2012. Now after a straight week of railing against national polls herding results and how it can’t be +1 in everything, his paid for final projection is 50.4 Trump-49.2 Harris.

And I’m sure he’s great and will return to form, but I had to giggle at that projection after decrying all the poll hedging going on.

[Sanlmar]

I had to laugh at Nate Silver. He has to hate what an enigma Trump is as a candidate worse than anyone. Trying to figure out Trump voters way harder than baseball.

He was the unassailable boy genius in 2012. Now after a straight week of railing against national polls herding results and how it can’t be +1 in everything, his paid for final projection is 50.4 Trump-49.2 Harris.

And I’m sure he’s great and will return to form, but I had to giggle at that projection after decrying all the poll hedging going on.

2012. Did people have smart phones then?

Nate Silver is Billy Beane. Little Bill James perhaps. He was ahead of the political polling curve when people were still using stone tools.

He is from yesteryear. He does have a knack for the business side. No one has reaped more financial reward from polling than he has. He knows how to play the game.

He has a brand and he isn’t looking to clock wins

[tgull]

I had to laugh at Nate Silver. He has to hate what an enigma Trump is as a candidate worse than anyone. Trying to figure out Trump voters way harder than baseball.

He was the unassailable boy genius in 2012. Now after a straight week of railing against national polls herding results and how it can’t be +1 in everything, his paid for final projection is 50.4 Trump-49.2 Harris.

And I’m sure he’s great and will return to form, but I had to giggle at that projection after decrying all the poll hedging going on.

I agree, calling it 50-50 is not what you pay him for. I mean FFS take a stand one way or the other. Take your position and live with it.

[Walter Sobchak]

I had to laugh at Nate Silver. He has to hate what an enigma Trump is as a candidate worse than anyone. Trying to figure out Trump voters way harder than baseball.

He was the unassailable boy genius in 2012. Now after a straight week of railing against national polls herding results and how it can’t be +1 in everything, his paid for final projection is 50.4 Trump-49.2 Harris.

And I’m sure he’s great and will return to form, but I had to giggle at that projection after decrying all the poll hedging going on.

Is this percentage chance to win, or percentage of the popular vote?

Because (1) the two of them together will not total 99.6% of the popular vote and (2) zero point zero chance Trump gets 50% of the popular vote.

I personally don’t pay attention to Silver.