i feel like me being too lazy to vote in arizona is going to swing the entire election like its literally on me
i feel like me being too lazy to vote in arizona is going to swing the entire election like its literally on me
That IOWA poll which has everyone in a frenzy, I just don't get it. This looks like a Trump +8 state, just on math alone:
There is no way Trump is losing IOWA. I am not sure why this pollster gets the most credibility. Does anyone on the planet think Trump will lose Iowa? I mean seriously?Originally Posted by tgull
One interesting thing about Selzer’s Iowa poll is that 5% of respondents who self-identified as Republicans said they plan to vote for Harris. No self-identified Democrats planned to vote for Trump.
5% sounds high, but if even 0.5% of Republicans vote for Harris across the swing states, she wins in a walk.
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PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
These are the early voting/no excuse absentee voting returns in PA through October 30th. They haven't changed much since.
Math.
There have been roughly 450k less ballots returned than in 2020 and roughly 100k more ballots returned by registered Republicans than in 2020. Using this data, in 2020 Trump made up 850k votes out of the 930k he started off down on Election Day. If you assumed that every single one of the 450k missing early voters this year voted for Kamala on Election Day along with their roughly 400k vote edge from this data, that puts them at basically a tie. Obviously those are ridiculous assumptions, but through basic math and extrapolation one can see a 1.5 point win for Trump in the keystone state without even factoring in that he's not running against a white guy with Pennsylvania roots this time.
Here is a breakdown of the final totals in 2020.
Certainly. Here are the estimated numbers for early voting (mail-in ballots) by party affiliation in Pennsylvania for the 2020 presidential election:
### Mail-In Ballots by Party in Pennsylvania (2020)
According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, the breakdown for requested and returned mail-in ballots was roughly as follows:
- **Democratic Party**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 1.98 million
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: About 1.7 million
- **Republican Party**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 790,000
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: Around 625,000
- **Other/Unaffiliated Voters**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 280,000
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: About 200,000
### Summary of Returned Mail-In Ballots
Out of the approximately **2.6 million mail-in ballots returned**:
- **Democrats**: Around 1.7 million (about 66-70% of total mail-in ballots returned)
- **Republicans**: Around 625,000 (about 24-25% of total mail-in ballots returned)
- **Independents/Other**: Around 200,000 (about 7-8% of total mail-in ballots returned)
### In-Person Voting
The in-person voting on Election Day skewed heavily Republican, though exact numbers are not broken down as granularly as mail-in ballots. The split led to an initial lead for Democrats in Pennsylvania as mail ballots were counted first, with Republicans making gains as in-person votes were tabulated later.
This difference created a notable "red mirage" and "blue shift" effect in the results as the counting process continued.
That IOWA poll which has everyone in a frenzy, I just don't get it. This looks like a Trump +8 state, just on math alone:
What’s happening is what happened with the live odds on election night 2020. And it’s what’s happening with Trump’s social media stock. And with Trump’s $60 bibles which are made in China. The books are businesses and they know many Trump supporters are gullible cultists and will place bad bets because they’re in a delusional bubble and cannot make these decisions objectively.
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PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
I agree with you but that’s why they call it an upset. Like the Giants upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl.There is no way Trump is losing IOWA. I am not sure why this pollster gets the most credibility. Does anyone on the planet think Trump will lose Iowa? I mean seriously?
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
Plain and simple, if the Trump campaign thought Iowa was in danger, or Harris thought it was winnable, they would have visited there. Neither has. It's a flawed survey. Just like the ones that come out every year saying Texas is in play. To be fair, Republicans are saying Virginia is in play which is a joke too.One interesting thing about Selzer’s Iowa poll is that 5% of respondents who self-identified as Republicans said they plan to vote for Harris. No self-identified Democrats planned to vote for Trump.
5% sounds high, but if even 0.5% of Republicans vote for Harris across the swing states, she wins in a walk.
These are the early voting/no excuse absentee voting returns in PA through October 30th. They haven't changed much since.
Math.
There have been roughly 450k less ballots returned than in 2020 and roughly 100k more ballots returned by registered Republicans than in 2020. Using this data, in 2020 Trump made up 850k votes out of the 930k he started off down on Election Day. If you assumed that every single one of the 450k missing early voters this year voted for Kamala on Election Day along with their roughly 400k vote edge from this data, that puts them at basically a tie. Obviously those are ridiculous assumptions, but through basic math and extrapolation one can see a 1.5 point win for Trump in the keystone state without even factoring in that he's not running against a white guy with Pennsylvania roots this time.
Here is a breakdown of the final totals in 2020.
Certainly. Here are the estimated numbers for early voting (mail-in ballots) by party affiliation in Pennsylvania for the 2020 presidential election:
### Mail-In Ballots by Party in Pennsylvania (2020)
According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, the breakdown for requested and returned mail-in ballots was roughly as follows:
- **Democratic Party**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 1.98 million
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: About 1.7 million
- **Republican Party**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 790,000
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: Around 625,000
- **Other/Unaffiliated Voters**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 280,000
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: About 200,000
### Summary of Returned Mail-In Ballots
Out of the approximately **2.6 million mail-in ballots returned**:
- **Democrats**: Around 1.7 million (about 66-70% of total mail-in ballots returned)
- **Republicans**: Around 625,000 (about 24-25% of total mail-in ballots returned)
- **Independents/Other**: Around 200,000 (about 7-8% of total mail-in ballots returned)
### In-Person Voting
The in-person voting on Election Day skewed heavily Republican, though exact numbers are not broken down as granularly as mail-in ballots. The split led to an initial lead for Democrats in Pennsylvania as mail ballots were counted first, with Republicans making gains as in-person votes were tabulated later.
This difference created a notable "red mirage" and "blue shift" effect in the results as the counting process continued.
Here is the most recent PA polling. Wow. What a coincidence...
Throw out Marist and then pick one R leaning poll to throw out as well (though they are never as egregious) and realize that there are several other extremely Dem pozzed polls still left.
You’re assuming that the Democrats who don’t vote early won’t vote on election day. Democrats voted absent/early in huge numbers in 2020 due to Covid. Republicans who think Covid is fake and therefore died from it much more than Democrats, and who heard from Trump that early voting is fraudulent (lol), all voted on election day. The splits won’t be as stark this time.
These are the early voting/no excuse absentee voting returns in PA through October 30th. They haven't changed much since.
Math.
There have been roughly 450k less ballots returned than in 2020 and roughly 100k more ballots returned by registered Republicans than in 2020. Using this data, in 2020 Trump made up 850k votes out of the 930k he started off down on Election Day. If you assumed that every single one of the 450k missing early voters this year voted for Kamala on Election Day along with their roughly 400k vote edge from this data, that puts them at basically a tie. Obviously those are ridiculous assumptions, but through basic math and extrapolation one can see a 1.5 point win for Trump in the keystone state without even factoring in that he's not running against a white guy with Pennsylvania roots this time.
Here is a breakdown of the final totals in 2020.
Certainly. Here are the estimated numbers for early voting (mail-in ballots) by party affiliation in Pennsylvania for the 2020 presidential election:
### Mail-In Ballots by Party in Pennsylvania (2020)
According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, the breakdown for requested and returned mail-in ballots was roughly as follows:
- **Democratic Party**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 1.98 million
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: About 1.7 million
- **Republican Party**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 790,000
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: Around 625,000
- **Other/Unaffiliated Voters**:
- **Mail Ballots Requested**: Approximately 280,000
- **Mail Ballots Returned**: About 200,000
### Summary of Returned Mail-In Ballots
Out of the approximately **2.6 million mail-in ballots returned**:
- **Democrats**: Around 1.7 million (about 66-70% of total mail-in ballots returned)
- **Republicans**: Around 625,000 (about 24-25% of total mail-in ballots returned)
- **Independents/Other**: Around 200,000 (about 7-8% of total mail-in ballots returned)
### In-Person Voting
The in-person voting on Election Day skewed heavily Republican, though exact numbers are not broken down as granularly as mail-in ballots. The split led to an initial lead for Democrats in Pennsylvania as mail ballots were counted first, with Republicans making gains as in-person votes were tabulated later.
This difference created a notable "red mirage" and "blue shift" effect in the results as the counting process continued.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
A little birdie told me Trump has dementia and is delusional.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
So it appears the Iowa shit is what's making Trump's odds fall.
I'm not concerned, and I think this probably makes Trump a better value to bet right now. Buy low, sell high, and all that.
One outlier poll in a weird non-swing state shouldn't cause the odds to tank this much.
Also I just made a Poly account, so if any of you have some USDC to trade with me for BTC/ETH, I'd appreciate it. Otherwise I gotta do it via crypto swapping and pay fees.
Text 775-372-8355 if you can
Maybe that’s not the only reason.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
overlooked old white women? they have them everywhere I hear.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
https://twitter.com/GabeGuidarini/status/1852864595624350148
Seems legit. I'm sure the disgustingly fat, nepo billionaire Illinois governor just happened to know in advance. Selzer is another one of these people like Allan Lichtman living off of a reputation they gained for almost nothing. I guarantee there is a very high paying consultation fee somewhere in her future. The propaganda is off the charts. 14 points different from the Emerson poll released today.
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