Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[tgull]

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Harris 49, Trump 50
Trump
+1
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Harris 48, Trump 50
Trump
+2
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 49, Trump 48
Harris
+1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48
Trump
+2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 51, Harris 47
Trump
+4
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48
Trump
+2
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 52, Harris 46
Trump
+6
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 52, Harris 46
Trump
+6
National: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48

[Walter Sobchak]

Harris isn't going to win Iowa.

It's a pipe dream. Trump won there by 8-9 points in the past two elections, and there hasn't been any reason it would have shifted much in the past 4 years.

I agree, the only states in play are the 7 swing states everyone is focused on. But it’s amusing (delusional) for bottomfag to cherry pick polls from poor pollsters that confirm his fantasy world.

[tgull]

Harris isn't going to win Iowa.

It's a pipe dream. Trump won there by 8-9 points in the past two elections, and there hasn't been any reason it would have shifted much in the past 4 years.

I agree, the only states in play are the 7 swing states everyone is focused on. But it’s amusing (delusional) for bottomfag to cherry pick polls from poor pollsters that confirm his fantasy world.

Once again, thank you for participating in the most viewed thread of 2024. It took me to get you out of retirement. I did it. Me. Continue to post in my thread Justin, lets get this to 100,000 views!

Puff

[go_buccos]

Pinny re-opened Trump -130/Harris +111. Holy shit!

All state markets still down. They take $50k wagers. That's an absolute flood of Harris money in the last 24 hours.

[Dan Druff]

Pinny re-opened Trump -130/Harris +111. Holy shit!

All state markets still down. They take $50k wagers. That's an absolute flood of Harris money in the last 24 hours.

Very weird. Was going to fire some bets but I might wait to see what shakes out.

This could be an opportunity to get in when Trump is getting closer to even money, but also a sucker bet if we're missing something.

[Walter Sobchak]

You can’t help anybody because you’re a fucking retard.

The poll with Harris ahead in Iowa is from Ann Selzer, who is the gold standard and knows Iowa better than anybody. And she is shocked by it but stands behind it.

MADAM PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS

Thank you for contributing to the most viewed and participated thread of 2024! Good Man!

You bring the hits, it cannot be denied.

But how are you going to drop your hurricane knowledge on us if Trump gets rid of NOAA like he says he wants to?

[Sanlmar]

Pinny re-opened Trump -130/Harris +111. Holy shit!

All state markets still down. They take $50k wagers. That's an absolute flood of Harris money in the last 24 hours.

Very weird. Was going to fire some bets but I might wait to see what shakes out.

This could be an opportunity to get in when Trump is getting closer to even money, but also a sucker bet if we're missing something.

Catching a falling knife, eh?

I have Trump even money from 9/11 (never forget). -115 too days later.

Coulda gotten Harris +155 for weeks for a cheap free roll. I’m gonna be sick

Lathering Plops balls and I ignore his action.

[tgull]

Pinny re-opened Trump -130/Harris +111. Holy shit!

All state markets still down. They take $50k wagers. That's an absolute flood of Harris money in the last 24 hours.

Very weird. Was going to fire some bets but I might wait to see what shakes out.

This could be an opportunity to get in when Trump is getting closer to even money, but also a sucker bet if we're missing something.

Little dangerous to fire anything at the moment. Wait until the NYT poll comes out, they are generally reliable within a point or two. If the MSM polls are like they were in 2016 or 2020 its a Trump win. But, if they corrected, then it really is a coin toss, and they might have corrected since they were so awful the last two cycles. I am sticking to my prior post, Trump will win WI which will seal the election. This IOWA poll is a joke whatever happens.

[Walter Sobchak]

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Harris 49, Trump 50
Trump
+1
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Harris 48, Trump 50
Trump
+2
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 49, Trump 48
Harris
+1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48
Trump
+2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 51, Harris 47
Trump
+4
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48
Trump
+2
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 52, Harris 46
Trump
+6
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 52, Harris 46
Trump
+6
National: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48

Yeah, you posted all of these biased polls from well-known right-leaning pollsters before 2020 too, and Biden won all the swing states.

Trump will not hit 50% in any swing state, even if he wins some of them. Maybe he barely edges 50% in GA or NC if he wins those.

[The Boz]

Thank you for contributing to the most viewed and participated thread of 2024! Good Man!

You bring the hits, it cannot be denied.

But how are you going to drop your hurricane knowledge on us if Trump gets rid of NOAA like he says he wants to?

Dude his hurricane “knowledge” was nonsense, like most of his takes.

I’ve said it time and time again, people like this guy are why we Trump supporters are considered idiots by many. He’s beyond embarrassing to our side.

[tgull]

Thank you for contributing to the most viewed and participated thread of 2024! Good Man!

You bring the hits, it cannot be denied.

But how are you going to drop your hurricane knowledge on us if Trump gets rid of NOAA like he says he wants to?

Well, then I will become a Democrat. The NHC is my life in the summer. If that goes away, yeah I got a problem, big time. I love hurricanes, they are kind of like friends.

[Walter Sobchak]

You bring the hits, it cannot be denied.

But how are you going to drop your hurricane knowledge on us if Trump gets rid of NOAA like he says he wants to?

Well, then I will become a Democrat. The NHC is my life in the summer. If that goes away, yeah I got a problem, big time. I love hurricanes, they are kind of like friends.

I too have a morbid fascination with disasters and extreme weather.

[VaughnP]

Guys, please go do some basic research and math on the early voting and voter registration data that is available. Math doesn't lie, and when you combine this with the few trustworthy polls and voter demographic analysis out there, it points to one conclusion. If you agree that Trump has a realistic shot at winning the popular vote, then you are insane to think that Kamala isn't a huge dog. I guess it's maybe just a coincidence that the highest quality polls and increasingly known early voting returns and registration information are starting to line up with an at minimum tied popular vote environment. In Pennsylvania Republican voters are only going to have to overcome a 375k vote deficit on Election Day. Trump wins with just GA, NC, and Pennsylvania, no other swing states.

[VaughnP]

This thread is starting to remind more and more of when I tried to convince you all to buy Ethereum and Bitcoin when they cratered to btc 2k and eth to 50 dollars. I actually bought quite a few Ethereum in the low 40s if I remember correctly.

[Sanlmar]

Guys, please go do some basic research and math on the early voting and voter registration data that is available. Math doesn't lie, and when you combine this with the few trustworthy polls and voter demographic analysis out there, it points to one conclusion. If you agree that Trump has a realistic shot at winning the popular vote, then you are insane to think that Kamala isn't a huge dog. I guess it's maybe just a coincidence that the highest quality polls and increasingly known early voting returns and registration information are starting to line up with an at minimum tied popular vote environment. In Pennsylvania Republican voters are only going to have to overcome a 375k vote deficit on Election Day. Trump wins with just GA, NC, and Pennsylvania, no other swing states.

thinking the winner will carry the popular vote too was never part of my Trump bet. the sharp money bet otherwise including plop

Fear of being this year’s Quinnipiac has me giving polls a short leash. They are businesses.

[Daly]

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Harris 49, Trump 50
Trump
+1
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Harris 48, Trump 50
Trump
+2
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 49, Trump 48
Harris
+1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48
Trump
+2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 51, Harris 47
Trump
+4
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48
Trump
+2
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 52, Harris 46
Trump
+6
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 52, Harris 46
Trump
+6
National: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 50, Harris 48

Yeah, you posted all of these biased polls from well-known right-leaning pollsters before 2020 too, and Biden won all the swing states.

Trump will not hit 50% in any swing state, even if he wins some of them. Maybe he barely edges 50% in GA or NC if he wins those.

This is the map that ends with a President Harris.

Not imposable. She needs to hit a four state parlay of Wi, Mi, Pa and to a lesser extent Vi. She drops one state its over.

[tgull]

I am sticking to my guns, and that is James Carville. A left winger. He said, and I agree, the most least likely scenario is a 4-3 in the battlegrounds. It's probably going 7-0 one direction or the other. It's just not plausible Trump wins NC by say 4 and loses PA by 1, and vice versa. This is not going to be a split decision, its a knock out in one direction or the other. Mark this post. We will know in FL, if its called by Trump +15 early its over. +4 its over its the other direction for Harris. It's that simple.

[Sanlmar]

@Druff

You have any political action you care to share this year?

[tgull]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1852882639684022295

[Sanlmar]

Wow

-125 Trump BOL
-126 Pinny

Can we confirm Trump is indeed alive ?

Everything offered here is backward looking. There is new info and trend betting at play obv

This popular vote prop might be stale in light of whatever.