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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #861
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    This is NOT going to play well in the Rust Belt
    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852543627534414086
    That didn’t take long

    https://twitter.com/champnella/status/1852557542083166322

     
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      zealanddonk: He probably thought he was in San Francisco
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  2. #862
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Snead View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    I said this before, I traveled the entire state in WI a month ago. All the way to the Upper Peninsula of MI and as far south as the border of Illinois. Where I was, it was MAGA. Every now and then you would see a Harris sign but the Trump signs were overwhelming. I did not spent any time in downtown Milwaukee, but I can assure you every rural county is Trump by a huge margin. Whenever I travel a state I am not familiar with I always search out Mom and Pops for lunch and dinner, just my thing. Yes anecdotal but the places had banners inside for Trump and they were packed. Obviously no Harris voter would go in given their TDS. Anecdotal yes, but I have to believe WI is going to be called early for Trump. I already maxed out $9,500 on Trump and not betting anymore. But if I had thought about it, I would have put half of it on WI for Trump.

    YOU KNOW JACK SHIT ABOUT WISCONSIN. TRUMP LOST THE LAST ELECTION BY 30K VOTES. MILWAUKEE AND MADISON MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF THE ELECTOR. IF YOU GIVE TRUMP THREE OF THE MOST POPULATED REPUBLICAN COUNTIES CALLED THE W.O.W COUNTIES. WAUKESHA, OZAUKEE, AND WASHINGTON. HE STILL LOSES. WAUKESHA COUNTY OVER THE PAST 12 YEARS HAS BEEN VOTING MORE AND MORE DEMOCRAT. THEIR REPUBLICAN MAYOR ENDORSED HARRIS A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. NO SHOT HE WINS WISCONSIN.
    Because you went all caps, you must be right.

  3. #863
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    As I stated yesterday, the last poll I will post is the NYT/Siena poll. There are "polls" flooding the market now that don't even exist so it really is pointless. I am going to post raw data and the Mark Halperin videos, but the polls now are fake and toxic on both sides. They don't really mean anything since its so close to the final vote.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    This is NOT going to play well in the Rust Belt
    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852543627534414086
    Serious question can anyone explain what he is actually trying to do? Or was an 80 year old man seriously acting out a blow job? full clip for reference

    https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1852545028687880626
    PokerfraudAlert acknowledges that our message board is on the unceded, unsurrendered Territory of Donkdown.com who's presence stretches back to that of Neverwinpoker and the Lithuanians. As such we acknowledge the great role that Tony G, Jewdonk, any many other Lithuanians have contributed to our community.

  6. #866
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Electoral Map Based on Final Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polling Trump 306 Harris 232
    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Snead View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    I said this before, I traveled the entire state in WI a month ago. All the way to the Upper Peninsula of MI and as far south as the border of Illinois. Where I was, it was MAGA. Every now and then you would see a Harris sign but the Trump signs were overwhelming. I did not spent any time in downtown Milwaukee, but I can assure you every rural county is Trump by a huge margin. Whenever I travel a state I am not familiar with I always search out Mom and Pops for lunch and dinner, just my thing. Yes anecdotal but the places had banners inside for Trump and they were packed. Obviously no Harris voter would go in given their TDS. Anecdotal yes, but I have to believe WI is going to be called early for Trump. I already maxed out $9,500 on Trump and not betting anymore. But if I had thought about it, I would have put half of it on WI for Trump.

    YOU KNOW JACK SHIT ABOUT WISCONSIN. TRUMP LOST THE LAST ELECTION BY 30K VOTES. MILWAUKEE AND MADISON MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF THE ELECTOR. IF YOU GIVE TRUMP THREE OF THE MOST POPULATED REPUBLICAN COUNTIES CALLED THE W.O.W COUNTIES. WAUKESHA, OZAUKEE, AND WASHINGTON. HE STILL LOSES. WAUKESHA COUNTY OVER THE PAST 12 YEARS HAS BEEN VOTING MORE AND MORE DEMOCRAT. THEIR REPUBLICAN MAYOR ENDORSED HARRIS A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. NO SHOT HE WINS WISCONSIN.
    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    This is NOT going to play well in the Rust Belt
    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852543627534414086
    Serious question can anyone explain what he is actually trying to do? Or was an 80 year old man seriously acting out a blow job? full clip for reference

    https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1852545028687880626

    It's part of his dementia. Dementia leads to disinhibition. Its only going to get worse in the coming days as the stress and pressure continue to degrade Trump's ability to be coherent. Have we forgot how being president rapidly ages the individual. Trump maybe under 80 but his mind is closer to someone in their 90s.

     
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      Walter Sobchak: Dementia and syphilis

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    Domer's stacking up "R prez, R senate, D house" balance of power. I bought this earlier at 14.5cents. You can get it now for 12 cents. If Trump wins, senate is a lock. If Trump wins but loses pop vote, D house is somewhat likely. With forecasts converging to this being a very close race, I like this bet at 12 cents.

    https://polymarket.com/event/balance...=1730567326645

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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Domer's stacking up "R prez, R senate, D house" balance of power. I bought this earlier at 14.5cents. You can get it now for 12 cents. If Trump wins, senate is a lock. If Trump wins but loses pop vote, D house is somewhat likely. With forecasts converging to this being a very close race, I like this bet at 12 cents.

    https://polymarket.com/event/balance...=1730567326645
    This whole market is a cheaper way to buy Trump if you're looking to do that. All the R prez scenarios only add up to ~53 cents rn, despite Trump being 59 cents to win.

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  11. #871
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    New online poll today through playgirl.com showing trumps recent antics have had him go from 17 percent to 34 percent approval from gay males.
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  12. #872
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    Trump doing everything he can to lose this election in finals moments

    https://twitter.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1852812012478398923
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  13. #873
    His fucking voice is so gross. Like he's constantly gargling on some viscous liquid.

  14. #874
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    Massive move on Pinny... Trump all the way down to -142/Harris +127, then a little bit ago they took all markets off the board. Wonder what's going on....

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    I was not going to post any more polls other than the NYT poll, because its generally reasonable. But I can't help myself. We knew this was going to happen.

    So... This Iowa poll came out today, seems normal right?

    Iowa: Trump vs. Harris
    Emerson
    Trump 54, Harris 45
    Trump
    +9


    Sounds reasonable right? Then this just hit which has the MSM going nuts:

    Iowa: Multi-Candidate
    Des Moines Register
    Trump 44, Harris 47, Kennedy 3, Chase 1
    Harris
    +3


    If you don't think the MSM is coordinating this suppress the vote I really can't help you.

  16. #876
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I was not going to post any more polls other than the NYT poll, because its generally reasonable. But I can't help myself. We knew this was going to happen.

    So... This Iowa poll came out today, seems normal right?

    Iowa: Trump vs. Harris
    Emerson
    Trump 54, Harris 45
    Trump
    +9


    Sounds reasonable right? Then this just hit which has the MSM going nuts:

    Iowa: Multi-Candidate
    Des Moines Register
    Trump 44, Harris 47, Kennedy 3, Chase 1
    Harris
    +3


    If you don't think the MSM is coordinating this suppress the vote I really can't help you.
    https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1852828273702731931

  17. #877
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I was not going to post any more polls other than the NYT poll, because its generally reasonable. But I can't help myself. We knew this was going to happen.

    So... This Iowa poll came out today, seems normal right?

    Iowa: Trump vs. Harris
    Emerson
    Trump 54, Harris 45
    Trump
    +9


    Sounds reasonable right? Then this just hit which has the MSM going nuts:

    Iowa: Multi-Candidate
    Des Moines Register
    Trump 44, Harris 47, Kennedy 3, Chase 1
    Harris
    +3


    If you don't think the MSM is coordinating this suppress the vote I really can't help you.
    You can’t help anybody because you’re a fucking retard.

    The poll with Harris ahead in Iowa is from Ann Selzer, who is the gold standard and knows Iowa better than anybody. And she is shocked by it but stands behind it.

    MADAM PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS

     
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      RichardBrodiesCombover.:

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  18. #878
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I was not going to post any more polls other than the NYT poll, because its generally reasonable. But I can't help myself. We knew this was going to happen.

    So... This Iowa poll came out today, seems normal right?

    Iowa: Trump vs. Harris
    Emerson
    Trump 54, Harris 45
    Trump
    +9


    Sounds reasonable right? Then this just hit which has the MSM going nuts:

    Iowa: Multi-Candidate
    Des Moines Register
    Trump 44, Harris 47, Kennedy 3, Chase 1
    Harris
    +3


    If you don't think the MSM is coordinating this suppress the vote I really can't help you.
    https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1852828273702731931
    To be fair, I post both sides:

    From the Des Moines Register, Selzer poll in Iowa:
    Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
    Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.


    I have no idea what is reality any longer, I just can't see Trump winning Iowa by less than 10.

  19. #879
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    Harris isn't going to win Iowa.

    It's a pipe dream. Trump won there by 8-9 points in the past two elections, and there hasn't been any reason it would have shifted much in the past 4 years.

  20. #880
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I was not going to post any more polls other than the NYT poll, because its generally reasonable. But I can't help myself. We knew this was going to happen.

    So... This Iowa poll came out today, seems normal right?

    Iowa: Trump vs. Harris
    Emerson
    Trump 54, Harris 45
    Trump
    +9


    Sounds reasonable right? Then this just hit which has the MSM going nuts:

    Iowa: Multi-Candidate
    Des Moines Register
    Trump 44, Harris 47, Kennedy 3, Chase 1
    Harris
    +3


    If you don't think the MSM is coordinating this suppress the vote I really can't help you.
    You can’t help anybody because you’re a fucking retard.

    The poll with Harris ahead in Iowa is from Ann Selzer, who is the gold standard and knows Iowa better than anybody. And she is shocked by it but stands behind it.

    MADAM PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS
    Thank you for contributing to the most viewed and participated thread of 2024! Good Man!

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