I just watched a Trump guy on TV, said they are pretty thrilled with their internals. Not much to read into that, but like I said he went to New Mexico and Bill Clinton went to NH for a reason. I am not Nostradamus but I was in WI a month ago for quite a while. I was like this is MAGA country. Anecdotal for sure but I saw what I saw. And it was not Harris and definitely not Walz. This D ticket is about the worst possible combo for the rustbelt.Originally Posted by Daly
The polls after tomorrow are almost irrelevant. NYT is about it. They are pretty decent historically, but now the rest are partisan trash so I am going to shift to other data points. Outside of the NYT poll I will not be posting any of these any longer, they are just partisan red meat at this point and most will not be in business in 2028 because they were sponsored. Other data points I will post.
North Carolina Mail: 205,143 ballots Early In-Person: 3,656,497 ballots Ballots by party registration: Republican 33.8% | 1,306,881 votes Other 33.6% | 1,298,302 votes Democratic 32.5% | 1,256,457 votes
To read this correctly, Trump is going to win NC easily.
It's seriously because many people are falling for the gender early voting narrative. Too predictable. It looked like up until just a few days ago she was on the path to capitulation and complete collapse in the betting markets into Monday and Tuesday, which still might happen, but the lesson I've learned here is to never underestimate the dishonesty of the left and their propaganda arm. I think you will see a coordinated effort to release even more fake polls from all the usual suspects and more and more of a push to try and make this an abortion issue election over the next few days. It doesn't change that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's all about turnout. Reading some of the recent posts in this thread is lol. Of course someone convinced Trump to drop the narrative ahead of actual Election Day that he is winning and it's "too big to rig" - the last thing any sane campaign manager wants is their candidate to make lower propensity voters think it's in the bag and not to go vote. Everything we are seeing on both sides is geared around increasing turnout. Kamala's turnout strategy is women and abortion, Trump's is centered around the correct "they are going to cheat, overwhelm them" strategy instead of "we're the 92 Cowboys" and can't lose. The difference in how well his campaign has been ran compared to hers is incredible. If Trump had the ability not to say stupid, inflammatory shit every other day for just a couple months this wouldn't have been even remotely close.
Domer just started firing on Trump with the recent market shift (but still hammering Kam pop vote).
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d8...4?tab=activity
Holy shit. I just checked Pinny and BOL.
Midday I saw -175 and now it’s -160
We may need to start the election broadcast now.
I had pledged to blackout my usual media outlets for the next few days.. But I’m not gonna be able to resist methinks.
https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1852519698958889065
If you assume that Trump is winning AZ, NC, and GA then give Kamala a generous 50/50 chance in Michigan, 45% chance in Wisconsin and a 40% chance in PA, ignoring scenarios that are actually possible like Trump winning NV and NH, needing to sweep all three means her chances would be 9%. Based on what we know of voter registration changes, polling, and early voting, it's not unrealistic to say Trump is a 4 to 1 favorite in PA and that the extensive data available there and what it shows means conditions are likely to have bleed over into the other rust belt states. If you assumed all three are 50/50 her chances only increase to 12.5%. If you assume she is a 3 to 2 favorite in Michigan and 50/50 in the other two then her odds only increase to a 15% chance. The fact that PolyMarket is now back again below 60/40 given what is known just shows how retarded the general population is and blinded by bias people are when it comes to politics.
This thread is hilarious.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
How do you feel about W, the guy in your avatar, being on Team Kamala?It's seriously because many people are falling for the gender early voting narrative. Too predictable. It looked like up until just a few days ago she was on the path to capitulation and complete collapse in the betting markets into Monday and Tuesday, which still might happen, but the lesson I've learned here is to never underestimate the dishonesty of the left and their propaganda arm. I think you will see a coordinated effort to release even more fake polls from all the usual suspects and more and more of a push to try and make this an abortion issue election over the next few days. It doesn't change that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's all about turnout. Reading some of the recent posts in this thread is lol. Of course someone convinced Trump to drop the narrative ahead of actual Election Day that he is winning and it's "too big to rig" - the last thing any sane campaign manager wants is their candidate to make lower propensity voters think it's in the bag and not to go vote. Everything we are seeing on both sides is geared around increasing turnout. Kamala's turnout strategy is women and abortion, Trump's is centered around the correct "they are going to cheat, overwhelm them" strategy instead of "we're the 92 Cowboys" and can't lose. The difference in how well his campaign has been ran compared to hers is incredible. If Trump had the ability not to say stupid, inflammatory shit every other day for just a couple months this wouldn't have been even remotely close.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
I've used this avatar since I joined NWP. I was a high schooler growing up in East Texas. Close to 20 years ago.How do you feel about W, the guy in your avatar, being on Team Kamala?
Kamala exactly 270 electoral votes is a good bet, if you can find it, and if the odds are long enough. This would be Kamala winning the entire blue wall, losing the entire sun belt, and all non-swing states staying as predicted. This is actually a very realistic outcome, though it's not the one I want.
270-268 the other way, while less likely, also is a possibility. That's if Trump takes PA and MI (but not WI), yet loses GA and NC.
This one is worth considering because:
1) Trump has had problems in Georgia, in general, since 2020
2) NC has problematic Republican downballot candidates
3) Arabs in Michigan might stay home or vote third party, due to dissatisfaction with Biden/Harris being "too pro-Israel" (lol)
4) There are some indications that Trump is a slight favorite in PA
You were one of the secret high schoolers on NWP, and were mature enough to hide it well.I've used this avatar since I joined NWP. I was a high schooler growing up in East Texas. Close to 20 years ago.
cth was another. OK25 was yet another, but he posted under a different name which I won't reveal unless he wants to.
Funny, I never considered there were secret high schoolers on there, but I guess it makes sense. The only one I knew was underage was MikeLikeWhoaaa, but he didn't hide it. I guess because I was already in my 30s, and because there were some other 30s people on the forum, I just took for granted how young everyone was.
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This is NOT going to play well in the Rust Belt
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852543627534414086
W has not endorsed anyone. Liz Cheney is now publicly pressuring him to endorse Kamala.How do you feel about W, the guy in your avatar, being on Team Kamala?
However, even if W does endorse Kamala, it's a personal thing, not a political thing. Trump was very mean and nasty to Jeb Bush, who was considered the heir apparent to the 2016 GOP nomination. Not only did Trump beat him, but he mocked Jeb relentlessly, and basically ended his political career.
Additionally, Trump has long been a critic of the Bush/Cheney wars of the 2000s.
The Bushes and Cheneys absolutely hate Trump for the above reasons, and it's gotten even worse as Liz Cheney and Donald Trump have traded barbs.
On a side note, while this doesn't really matter, I believe Dick Cheney's wife Lynne is a closet lesbian. This would also explain their daughter Mary being a lesbian, as there is strong evidence that homosexuality/bisexuality is at least somewhat hereditary. Look up the book Sisters, released in 1981. It was about women in the Old West, but oddly depicted the main character, Sophie, both having lesbian feelings and also discovering letters indicating that her dead sister was also a lesbian. The lesbian elements to the book were portrayed positively, and were neither depicted as scandalous, shameful, sinful, or sexualized. Many (probably correctly) theorized that Lynne wrote her own feelings about secretly wanting to be a lesbian into the Sophie character. When this became controversial in the 2000s, the book was suddenly taken out of print, and Lynne lied about the book, claiming it had no lesbian content.
Very weird. Lynne Cheney was born in 1941, and obviously came of age at a time when being a lesbian carried a tremendous social stigma.
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There's two markets for it on Poly. Dems to win by 0-4 ECs:
https://polymarket.com/event/elector...=1730537891344
270-268 Dems exact:
https://polymarket.com/event/kamala-...=1730537999519
There's a lot of people talking about this scenario, so I think it's gotten overpriced. I threw up a gamble on Dems 35-64. Less than $600 to win $8k.
On the flip side, you can get 70 to 1 on GOP to win by 1-4 ECs
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