Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[tgull]

Sportsbooks (which are slightly different in reaction time than Poly) are no longer dealing Harris +150’s. Im seeing +140 and +145.

That makes Trump -175 in most spots so its not like the market makers thinking has changed *that* much, but its definitely a shift-over the last 36 hours

I just watched a Trump guy on TV, said they are pretty thrilled with their internals. Not much to read into that, but like I said he went to New Mexico and Bill Clinton went to NH for a reason. I am not Nostradamus but I was in WI a month ago for quite a while. I was like this is MAGA country. Anecdotal for sure but I saw what I saw. And it was not Harris and definitely not Walz. This D ticket is about the worst possible combo for the rustbelt.

[tgull]

The polls after tomorrow are almost irrelevant. NYT is about it. They are pretty decent historically, but now the rest are partisan trash so I am going to shift to other data points. Outside of the NYT poll I will not be posting any of these any longer, they are just partisan red meat at this point and most will not be in business in 2028 because they were sponsored. Other data points I will post.


North Carolina Mail: 205,143 ballots Early In-Person: 3,656,497 ballots Ballots by party registration: Republican 33.8% | 1,306,881 votes Other 33.6% | 1,298,302 votes Democratic 32.5% | 1,256,457 votes

To read this correctly, Trump is going to win NC easily.

[VaughnP]

Sportsbooks (which are slightly different in reaction time than Poly) are no longer dealing Harris +150’s. Im seeing +140 and +145.

That makes Trump -175 in most spots so its not like the market makers thinking has changed *that* much, but its definitely a shift-over the last 36 hours

It's seriously because many people are falling for the gender early voting narrative. Too predictable. It looked like up until just a few days ago she was on the path to capitulation and complete collapse in the betting markets into Monday and Tuesday, which still might happen, but the lesson I've learned here is to never underestimate the dishonesty of the left and their propaganda arm. I think you will see a coordinated effort to release even more fake polls from all the usual suspects and more and more of a push to try and make this an abortion issue election over the next few days. It doesn't change that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's all about turnout. Reading some of the recent posts in this thread is lol. Of course someone convinced Trump to drop the narrative ahead of actual Election Day that he is winning and it's "too big to rig" - the last thing any sane campaign manager wants is their candidate to make lower propensity voters think it's in the bag and not to go vote. Everything we are seeing on both sides is geared around increasing turnout. Kamala's turnout strategy is women and abortion, Trump's is centered around the correct "they are going to cheat, overwhelm them" strategy instead of "we're the 92 Cowboys" and can't lose. The difference in how well his campaign has been ran compared to hers is incredible. If Trump had the ability not to say stupid, inflammatory shit every other day for just a couple months this wouldn't have been even remotely close.

[PLOL]

Domer just started firing on Trump with the recent market shift (but still hammering Kam pop vote).
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d8...4?tab=activity

[Sanlmar]

Holy shit. I just checked Pinny and BOL.

Midday I saw -175 and now it’s -160

We may need to start the election broadcast now.

I had pledged to blackout my usual media outlets for the next few days.. But I’m not gonna be able to resist methinks.

[VaughnP]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1852519698958889065

If you assume that Trump is winning AZ, NC, and GA then give Kamala a generous 50/50 chance in Michigan, 45% chance in Wisconsin and a 40% chance in PA, ignoring scenarios that are actually possible like Trump winning NV and NH, needing to sweep all three means her chances would be 9%. Based on what we know of voter registration changes, polling, and early voting, it's not unrealistic to say Trump is a 4 to 1 favorite in PA and that the extensive data available there and what it shows means conditions are likely to have bleed over into the other rust belt states. If you assumed all three are 50/50 her chances only increase to 12.5%. If you assume she is a 3 to 2 favorite in Michigan and 50/50 in the other two then her odds only increase to a 15% chance. The fact that PolyMarket is now back again below 60/40 given what is known just shows how retarded the general population is and blinded by bias people are when it comes to politics.

[Walter Sobchak]

This thread is hilarious.

[Walter Sobchak]

Sportsbooks (which are slightly different in reaction time than Poly) are no longer dealing Harris +150’s. Im seeing +140 and +145.

That makes Trump -175 in most spots so its not like the market makers thinking has changed *that* much, but its definitely a shift-over the last 36 hours

It's seriously because many people are falling for the gender early voting narrative. Too predictable. It looked like up until just a few days ago she was on the path to capitulation and complete collapse in the betting markets into Monday and Tuesday, which still might happen, but the lesson I've learned here is to never underestimate the dishonesty of the left and their propaganda arm. I think you will see a coordinated effort to release even more fake polls from all the usual suspects and more and more of a push to try and make this an abortion issue election over the next few days. It doesn't change that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's all about turnout. Reading some of the recent posts in this thread is lol. Of course someone convinced Trump to drop the narrative ahead of actual Election Day that he is winning and it's "too big to rig" - the last thing any sane campaign manager wants is their candidate to make lower propensity voters think it's in the bag and not to go vote. Everything we are seeing on both sides is geared around increasing turnout. Kamala's turnout strategy is women and abortion, Trump's is centered around the correct "they are going to cheat, overwhelm them" strategy instead of "we're the 92 Cowboys" and can't lose. The difference in how well his campaign has been ran compared to hers is incredible. If Trump had the ability not to say stupid, inflammatory shit every other day for just a couple months this wouldn't have been even remotely close.

How do you feel about W, the guy in your avatar, being on Team Kamala?

[VaughnP]

It's seriously because many people are falling for the gender early voting narrative. Too predictable. It looked like up until just a few days ago she was on the path to capitulation and complete collapse in the betting markets into Monday and Tuesday, which still might happen, but the lesson I've learned here is to never underestimate the dishonesty of the left and their propaganda arm. I think you will see a coordinated effort to release even more fake polls from all the usual suspects and more and more of a push to try and make this an abortion issue election over the next few days. It doesn't change that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's all about turnout. Reading some of the recent posts in this thread is lol. Of course someone convinced Trump to drop the narrative ahead of actual Election Day that he is winning and it's "too big to rig" - the last thing any sane campaign manager wants is their candidate to make lower propensity voters think it's in the bag and not to go vote. Everything we are seeing on both sides is geared around increasing turnout. Kamala's turnout strategy is women and abortion, Trump's is centered around the correct "they are going to cheat, overwhelm them" strategy instead of "we're the 92 Cowboys" and can't lose. The difference in how well his campaign has been ran compared to hers is incredible. If Trump had the ability not to say stupid, inflammatory shit every other day for just a couple months this wouldn't have been even remotely close.

How do you feel about W, the guy in your avatar, being on Team Kamala?

I've used this avatar since I joined NWP. I was a high schooler growing up in East Texas. Close to 20 years ago.