Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[Sanlmar]

but yeah guys its razor close

A chubby little girl with an ill fitting suit jacket and an earpiece standing behind the red tie and you really have some da Vinci grade art

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

I think Trump has recently seen some internal data that shows he's losing. He's given up on his "too big to rig" talk in the last few rallies. Now he's talking about election integrity.

[Sanlmar]

I think Trump has recently seen some internal data that shows he's losing. He's given up on his "too big to rig" talk in the last few rallies. Now he's talking about election integrity.

Is Trump “election integrity” news cycle or is he really ramping that talk up. That is not a positive Trump look or memory

Feels like media. Oops, I just remembered Rogan drew this out of him.

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

I think Trump has recently seen some internal data that shows he's losing. He's given up on his "too big to rig" talk in the last few rallies. Now he's talking about election integrity.

Is Trump “election integrity” news cycle or is he really ramping that talk up. That is not a positive Trump look or memory

He's definitely ramping it up. I admit I listen to his rallies on YouTube. It's important to know that this lunatic is saying. He's basically given up on the "too big to rig" rhetoric in the last 5 rallies.

[tgull]

The betting markets are my empirical data.

If the same kinds of errors existed this year Trump would be -800 right now.

Temper this by taking a moment to remember the savagery that occurred in the betting markets the night of the election 2016.

For those who were there that night this recollection will temper any hubris that threatens to overcome you. The betting markets are not necessarily truth.

It was like the 9/11 of political wagering. We all recall where we were

It was 90:10 Clinton the day of election. Bettors are wrong all the time. The best indicator really is where the candidates are going, I made a post the weekend before the 2016 election saying it was suspicious that Clinton was in PA with Jay Z and Trump was basically camping out in MI. I got the requisite response "those are deep blue states". Now in 2024 Trump making a visit to New Mexico, Bill Clinton and Biden spending time in NH, and the Governor of VA going to Court to get 1,600 non citizens off the voter rolls is revealing. Probably not going to win those states, but everyone obsesses about the rust belt. However if Trump sweeps the sun belt and surprises with NH, he wins the election without MI, WI, PA. There is always a surprise state in these things. With that said, I still think its not going to be close in one direction or the other. Someone is likely going to be north of 300 EVs. One thing you gotta give Trump, he turned the Republican party of the middle class, and the Dems into the party of the elite and foreign intervention. How times have changed since I was a kid.

[tgull]

It's polls like this that drive me nuts. Just like the CNN poll saying Harris was up by 6 in WI earlier this week. Both are totally wrong but they publish them anyway:


Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
Susquehanna
Trump 50, Harris 44
Trump
+6

[Sanlmar]

I picked the perfect year to cancel my cable subscription. CNN and FOX still around? How do they eat these days?

[tgull]

I picked the perfect year to cancel my cable subscription. CNN and FOX still around? How do they eat these days?

Fox is getting awful. Their staple morning show. Fox and Friends has been contaminated by super dweeb Steve Doocey who earlier this year decided to become a skeptical republican and challenge everything and take the Dems side. Which would be fine if he had done that since the show's inception since 1998. Obviously someone this year told his this was his new role, it's contrived bullshit. CNN, is unwatchable. Don't take my word for it, they barely have any viewership left. I would not be surprised to see Elon buy it when it hits the auction block.

[go_buccos]

The betting markets are my empirical data.

If the same kinds of errors existed this year Trump would be -800 right now.

Temper this by taking a moment to remember the savagery that occurred in the betting markets the night of the election 2016.

For those who were there that night this recollection will temper any hubris that threatens to overcome you. The betting markets are not necessarily truth.

It was like the 9/11 of political wagering. We all recall where we were

You're correct of course, and the books took an absolute bath in 2016.

They self-corrected in 2020 though. (at least partially) A significant Dem polling error was accounted for that year. Biden closed somewhere around -230 when the first polls opened IIRC. If the polling tgull refers to was accurate (it obviously wasn't) Biden would have been -1000 the morning of.

I of course could be very wrong, but for the most part I think the books are pricing this election at least somewhat accurately.

[tgull]

#NEW FINAL poll - American swing counties 🔴 Trump: 47% (+1) 🔵 Harris: 46% Who is your neighbor voting for? 🔴 Trump: 51% (+7) 🔵 Harris: 44% Redfield & Wilton | 10/21-23 | N=1,400LV