I doOriginally Posted by tgull
No, I do not know how people voted in a confidential vote. Go back to night wrestling dudes at the gym.
15-20 % are voting for VP Harris
im way smarter than you
bring back that white trashcan rot gut drinker tyde
Fucking frank luntz
you better bring better than that pal if you decide to step up against me again
fkin frank luntz
Wouldn’t that mostly be attributable to Covid fear and the goofy election rules last time
These were the 2016 voting demographics.
ChatGPT:
While precise percentages for male vs. female early and Election Day voting can vary by election cycle, some recent data offers a general estimate. In the 2020 U.S. election, for example:
1. **Early Voting**:
- Women made up **about 54-55%** of early and mail-in voters.
- Men comprised approximately **45-46%** of early and mail-in voters.
2. **Election Day Voting**:
- Men made up a slightly larger share of in-person Election Day voters, comprising roughly **52-53%**.
- Women accounted for approximately **47-48%** of Election Day voters.
These percentages show that while women are more likely to vote early, men make up a greater share of those voting on Election Day. This pattern can vary slightly by state and election type (e.g., midterms vs. presidential), but these figures provide a general trend seen in recent high-turnout elections.
2020.
What does this mean? That unless you believe Kamala is doing better with white women than Biden and Hilldawg, then spinning the battleground turn out so far by gender as some kind of positive for her is literally retarded. It's actually the opposite, and then remember all the indicators of Trump performing significantly better this time among blacks and Hispanics. Factor those increases into both sides of the gender equation. The betting markets have fell for these gender gaps and the usual suspect state polling released over the last two days.
The amount of propaganda being released is at an all time high. Trump has never in any of the previous elections had anywhere close to as clear of a lead than he does now.
https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1852091134257857010
She's crushing it guys.
Signs couldn't be stronger for Trump in PA: #NEW FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll 🔴 Trump: 49% (=) 🔵 Harris: 49% Last poll: Harris+3 Bellwethers: 🔴 Northampton: Trump+2 (last poll: Harris+5) 🟡 Erie: Tie (last poll: Harris+4) Suffolk/USA Today | 10/27-30 | N=500LV
Looks like Trump's PA lead had slipped in the betting markets in PA. Something about early voting.
Marist’s final rust belt polls, 2020 vs 2024: 2020: MI: 🟦 biden+8 | PA: 🟦 biden+5 | WI: 🟦 biden+10 --- 2024: MI: 🟦 harris+3 | PA: 🟦 harris+2 | WI: 🟦 harris+2
#NEW FINAL NORTH CAROLINA poll 🔴 Trump: 50% (+3) 🔵 Harris: 47% @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/25-30 | N=751LV
Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh #NEW FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll 🔴Trump: 49% (+2) 🔵 Harris: 47% @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/25-28 | N=849LV
Grifters like Kirk (both sides have them) say whatever makes them the most money. IF is an all time cover your ass statement.
I remember when he and the other grifters said the election was “over” the day Trump was shot and the incredible picture of his fist in the air was shown. Now it’s not even talked about. So why isn’t it “over”?
Bottom line is the smart money is betting on Kamala as a dog now because all she needs is to sweep PA,MI and WI. They are really the only 3 states that matter at this point. And I see her pulling all 3 out by less than 75,000 votes total. Not easy by any means but I personally don’t trust the GOP to do a better job than the libs to get their voters out in those 3 states until they prove otherwise.
I truly hope I lose my bets for the future of America.
I disagree, I actually agree with James Carville. The most least likely scenario is 4-3 in the battlegrounds. It is shaping up to be 7-0, and one side will be routed.Grifters like Kirk (both sides have them) say whatever makes them the most money. IF is an all time cover your ass statement.
I remember when he and the other grifters said the election was “over” the day Trump was shot and the incredible picture of his fist in the air was shown. Now it’s not even talked about. So why isn’t it “over”?
Bottom line is the smart money is betting on Kamala as a dog now because all she needs is to sweep PA,MI and WI. They are really the only 3 states that matter at this point. And I see her pulling all 3 out by less than 75,000 votes total. Not easy by any means but I personally don’t trust the GOP to do a better job than the libs to get their voters out in those 3 states until they prove otherwise.
I truly hope I lose my bets for the future of America.
You like to post these 2020/2024 polling comparisons but I would put the chances of the same kinds polling errors existing as in 2016 and 2020 at about zero point zero.
30-cent move back toward Harris on Pinny in the last 72 hours. Trump now -173. More striking though is a HUGE move toward Harris in Michigan. Trump now +140 after being a slight favorite last weekend. Trump still favored in PA, slightly favored in WI, and a huge favorite in AZ/NC/GA/NV
Undoubtedly there's some arbitraging going on with the national number, and that explains some of it, but I think people are also betting Kamala for value at these prices and I think that's sharp. If I were making book I would make the national number and the Pennsylvania number identical.
Other than 'your gut feeling' what empirical data do you have to suggest that polling has improved since 2016? It was actually worse in 2020 and they had 4 years to fix it then.You like to post these 2020/2024 polling comparisons but I would put the chances of the same kinds polling errors existing as in 2016 and 2020 at about zero point zero.
The betting markets are my empirical data.Other than 'your gut feeling' what empirical data do you have to suggest that polling has improved since 2016? It was actually worse in 2020 and they had 4 years to fix it then.
If the same kinds of errors existed this year Trump would be -800 right now.
Temper this by taking a moment to remember the savagery that occurred in the betting markets the night of the election 2016.The betting markets are my empirical data.
If the same kinds of errors existed this year Trump would be -800 right now.
For those who were there that night this recollection will temper any hubris that threatens to overcome you. The betting markets are not necessarily truth.
It was like the 9/11 of political wagering. We all recall where we were
but yeah guys its razor close
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
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