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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by go_buccos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by go_buccos View Post
    Pinnacle just put up all the swing state odds today.

    EC winner: Trump +103, Harris -124
    Arizona: Trump -160
    Florida: Trump -552
    Georgia: Trump -146
    Maine: (statewide winner) Harris -725
    Michigan: Harris -179
    Nevada: Harris -124
    New Hampshire: Harris -790
    North Carolina: Trump -140
    PA: Harris -128
    Texas: Trump -909
    Virginia: Harris -1050
    Wisconsin: Harris -189
    Above were the opening Pinny odds on 9/12/2024 for each battleground state. Current Pinny odds below:

    EC Winner: Trump -177, Harris +150
    Arizona: Trump -260
    Florida: Trump -1870
    Georgia: Trump -243
    Maine: OFF
    Michigan TIE -110
    Nevada: Harris -115
    New Hampshire: Harris -700
    North Carolina: Trump -208
    PA: Trump -143
    Texas: Trump -2225
    Virginia: Harris -680
    Wisconsin: Trump -123

    Popular vote winner: (just added) Harris -252
    Fun snapshot buccos

    BOL was +100 Trump on 9/11 never forget

    Pinny was -160 yesterday?

    BOL is presently -155 vs Pinny -177

    Really peculiar action. Pinny obviously doesn’t want to take a position on Harris. My first reaction was to buy some Harris as a hedge but I’m not a good gambler cause I didn’t.

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    you cannot not share this

    "The founding fathers did not like the idea of the tyranny of the majority ruling the country"
    Dan Druff

    “I don't know what weapons World War III will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
    Albert Einstein

    "Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today if a gift
    and that is why it's called the present"

    Eleanor Roosevelt

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    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1846777546228003103

    Just wow. I think it's genuinely possible Trump will win the popular vote now - I was thinking somewhere around Kamala +1 for weeks but unbelievable. Turnout is everything in elections, and voting for this is outright embarrassing - where is the enthusiasm? Will hate of Trump be anywhere close to what it was in 2020? Or do Trump and Vance seem like the adults in the room? -- All of these things are what leads to people not going through the trouble to mail a ballot back or stand in line on Election Day. Meanwhile Trump voters are both on a revenge tour and really do see these people as an existential threat. Don't be shocked if Trump ekes out something like a +.3 win here.

     
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      country978:

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    Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1846777546228003103

    Just wow. I think it's genuinely possible Trump will win the popular vote now - I was thinking somewhere around Kamala +1 for weeks but unbelievable. Turnout is everything in elections, and voting for this is outright embarrassing - where is the enthusiasm? Will hate of Trump be anywhere close to what it was in 2020? Or do Trump and Vance seem like the adults in the room? -- All of these things are what leads to people not going through the trouble to mail a ballot back or stand in line on Election Day. Meanwhile Trump voters are both on a revenge tour and really do see these people as an existential threat. Don't be shocked if Trump ekes out something like a +.3 win here.
    Last night was an embarrassment for Harris. The issue is her VP candidate is equally as bad. She is simply a failure. She has the entire universe to choose a VP candidate, and she chose Walz, who is a fucking nut. Say what you want about Vance, but he is incredibly smart and capable. This is a rare race where you actually need to vote for second place on the ticket. Harris is flat out incompetent, even Biden admitted that which is why she was hidden for nearly years. Now Trump is an old guy, it's not like he hasn't slipped over the years. But Vance versus Walz I mean come on its not even close. You almost get the feeling Trump will win, do the ceremonial stuff, and turn things over to Vance and whomever the Secretary of State is. Which candidly is what Reagan did his second term.

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    Thursday, October 17
    National: Trump vs. Harris FOX News
    Harris 48, Trump 50

    Trump +2

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    Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1846777546228003103

    Just wow. I think it's genuinely possible Trump will win the popular vote now - I was thinking somewhere around Kamala +1 for weeks but unbelievable. Turnout is everything in elections, and voting for this is outright embarrassing - where is the enthusiasm? Will hate of Trump be anywhere close to what it was in 2020? Or do Trump and Vance seem like the adults in the room? -- All of these things are what leads to people not going through the trouble to mail a ballot back or stand in line on Election Day. Meanwhile Trump voters are both on a revenge tour and really do see these people as an existential threat. Don't be shocked if Trump ekes out something like a +.3 win here.
    I think he will win the popular vote also. There are going to be millions of people like jayjami, sloppy joe and bcr who are going to vote for Trump and just never admit it. Fat chance any of them are being counted in polls.

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    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1846777546228003103

    Just wow. I think it's genuinely possible Trump will win the popular vote now - I was thinking somewhere around Kamala +1 for weeks but unbelievable. Turnout is everything in elections, and voting for this is outright embarrassing - where is the enthusiasm? Will hate of Trump be anywhere close to what it was in 2020? Or do Trump and Vance seem like the adults in the room? -- All of these things are what leads to people not going through the trouble to mail a ballot back or stand in line on Election Day. Meanwhile Trump voters are both on a revenge tour and really do see these people as an existential threat. Don't be shocked if Trump ekes out something like a +.3 win here.
    I think he will win the popular vote also. There are going to be millions of people like jayjami, sloppy joe and bcr who are going to vote for Trump and just never admit it. Fat chance any of them are being counted in polls.
    I’m not voting for Trump. I abhor fascists. They tried to shoot my grandpa out of the sky on multiple occasions, including D-Day. I’m voting for the Libertarian Party or Bill the Cat, depending how hard it is to do a write-in candidate on my ballot. I always wait until Election Day and vote in person.

     
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      zealanddonk: If I could vote, it'd also be for Bill the Cat too

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post

    I think he will win the popular vote also. There are going to be millions of people like jayjami, sloppy joe and bcr who are going to vote for Trump and just never admit it. Fat chance any of them are being counted in polls.
    I’m not voting for Trump. I abhor fascists. I’m voting for the Libertarian Party or Bill the Cat, depending how hard it is to do a write-in candidate on my ballot. I always wait until Election Day and vote in person.
    I respect your choice, whatever it is. Can you believe how awful our choice is? That Trump is on the verge of winning says a lot more about Harris than it does about him. The guy is beyond flawed and everyone can see this yet here he is. The democrats are the dumbest most insufferable people on earth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post

    I think he will win the popular vote also. There are going to be millions of people like jayjami, sloppy joe and bcr who are going to vote for Trump and just never admit it. Fat chance any of them are being counted in polls.
    I’m not voting for Trump. I abhor fascists. They tried to shoot my grandpa out of the sky on multiple occasions, including D-Day. I’m voting for the Libertarian Party or Bill the Cat, depending how hard it is to do a write-in candidate on my ballot. I always wait until Election Day and vote in person.
    It's funny you say that, because I have warmed to fascists.


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    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1846777546228003103

    Just wow. I think it's genuinely possible Trump will win the popular vote now - I was thinking somewhere around Kamala +1 for weeks but unbelievable. Turnout is everything in elections, and voting for this is outright embarrassing - where is the enthusiasm? Will hate of Trump be anywhere close to what it was in 2020? Or do Trump and Vance seem like the adults in the room? -- All of these things are what leads to people not going through the trouble to mail a ballot back or stand in line on Election Day. Meanwhile Trump voters are both on a revenge tour and really do see these people as an existential threat. Don't be shocked if Trump ekes out something like a +.3 win here.
    I think he will win the popular vote also. There are going to be millions of people like jayjami, sloppy joe and bcr who are going to vote for Trump and just never admit it. Fat chance any of them are being counted in polls.
    I would say I am voting for him in a second if I was. Where I live, a Kamala voter is way more likely to be a silent voter than a Trump voter. I have never not voted, but I am not right now. If I was going to impulse vote, it wouldn't be for Trump, but it truly won't be either. My non vote is basically just fuck this immigration situation and deficit spending that's just slightly worse under Dems than Trump, but still worse. Also just a general Kamala doesn't seem to have it non vote. I vote for her and I am going to hearing shit about reparations and other assorted Cal Dem shit that I just can't.

    With immigrants, I am not scared of some scary foreigner. I just have seen too much valid absolute proof of how much $ we have spent on them. Over the top. It's one thing to be paying a lot of tax for our own poor people, and we need educated immigrants, but bringing over refugees with no real skills and putting them up for months in nice hotels and putting them on better footing than our own poor, I can't get down with that. Charity is a luxury item we can't afford. We need unskilled laborers, but you don't spend $50k per immigrant and drive up housing costs for other poor people to fill minimum wage jobs. That is idiocy.

    I could write a pro/con list with both and not be sure who was worse. Another potential SC seat for Trump would be the biggest con. The court is already fucked, too theocratic, and the loons are young. They are already out of touch atm and will probably be around another 25 years. That would be the Kamala impulse vote, but I can't this time for reasons already mentioned. I would vote if I felt one was the lesser of two evils with any confidence. I just don't.

    In the sense I am a -1 for Dems, it helps your popular vote theory. I am not a +1 for him though. I am not exactly afraid of verbal confrontation here. If something occurs over the next 3 weeks that convinces me to impulse vote for Trump I'd say it. I hate the MAGA cult more than I hate the cult leader strangely. I get why he wants to con them and understand him, but them being marks for him over and over and continually falling for pure insanity is a more personal hate because I know so many and they are, and have always been, just the dumbest people I have ever encountered. It long ago morphed from pity at their idiocy to contempt with them.

     
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      country978: always well said bcr
      
      v12cl: Respect your calculation and decision
      
      Tellafriend: fair as usual

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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post

    I think he will win the popular vote also. There are going to be millions of people like jayjami, sloppy joe and bcr who are going to vote for Trump and just never admit it. Fat chance any of them are being counted in polls.
    I would say I am voting for him in a second if I was. Where I live, a Kamala voter is way more likely to be a silent voter than a Trump voter. I have never not voted, but I am not right now. If I was going to impulse vote, it wouldn't be for Trump, but it truly won't be either. My non vote is basically just fuck this immigration situation and deficit spending that's just slightly worse under Dems than Trump, but still worse. Also just a general Kamala doesn't seem to have it non vote. I vote for her and I am going to hearing shit about reparations and other assorted Cal Dem shit that I just can't.

    With immigrants, I am not scared of some scary foreigner. I just have seen too much valid absolute proof of how much $ we have spent on them. Over the top. It's one thing to be paying a lot of tax for our own poor people, and we need educated immigrants, but bringing over refugees with no real skills and putting them up for months in nice hotels and putting them on better footing than our own poor, I can't get down with that. Charity is a luxury item we can't afford. We need unskilled laborers, but you don't spend $50k per immigrant and drive up housing costs for other poor people to fill minimum wage jobs. That is idiocy.

    I could write a pro/con list with both and not be sure who was worse. Another potential SC seat for Trump would be the biggest con. The court is already fucked, too theocratic, and the loons are young. They are already out of touch atm and will probably be around another 25 years. That would be the Kamala impulse vote, but I can't this time for reasons already mentioned. I would vote if I felt one was the lesser of two evils with any confidence. I just don't.

    In the sense I am a -1 for Dems, it helps your popular vote theory. I am not a +1 for him though. I am not exactly afraid of verbal confrontation here. If something occurs over the next 3 weeks that convinces me to impulse vote for Trump I'd say it. I hate the MAGA cult more than I hate the cult leader strangely. I get why he wants to con them and understand him, but them being marks for him over and over and continually falling for pure insanity is a more personal hate because I know so many and they are, and have always been, just the dumbest people I have ever encountered. It long ago morphed from pity at their idiocy to contempt with them.
    I respect you and your choices, BCR but you do sound waaay more like a Trump voter than anything. It's why I mention you because I always read what you post and you're clearly not a liberal freak show.

    Those super dumb Trump people you speak of nobody really likes them but I'll stand with them any day if it means the end of immigration and gender insanity and war. The extremes on the left, imo, are far worse. There are fine people on both sides.

    I appreciate you and jayjami because you both seem to at least understand why a person might vote for Trump even if you won't. There are far too many people nowadays breaking off relationships or worse because of political disagreements. My own uncle, who I love dearly, once told a neighbor who was flying a Trump flag to never step foot on his property again and he also told me recently that he wished the bullet hadn't missed.

    That is pure TDS which you, thankfully, don't seem to have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post

    I think he will win the popular vote also. There are going to be millions of people like jayjami, sloppy joe and bcr who are going to vote for Trump and just never admit it. Fat chance any of them are being counted in polls.
    I would say I am voting for him in a second if I was. Where I live, a Kamala voter is way more likely to be a silent voter than a Trump voter. I have never not voted, but I am not right now. If I was going to impulse vote, it wouldn't be for Trump, but it truly won't be either. My non vote is basically just fuck this immigration situation and deficit spending that's just slightly worse under Dems than Trump, but still worse. Also just a general Kamala doesn't seem to have it non vote. I vote for her and I am going to hearing shit about reparations and other assorted Cal Dem shit that I just can't.

    With immigrants, I am not scared of some scary foreigner. I just have seen too much valid absolute proof of how much $ we have spent on them. Over the top. It's one thing to be paying a lot of tax for our own poor people, and we need educated immigrants, but bringing over refugees with no real skills and putting them up for months in nice hotels and putting them on better footing than our own poor, I can't get down with that. Charity is a luxury item we can't afford. We need unskilled laborers, but you don't spend $50k per immigrant and drive up housing costs for other poor people to fill minimum wage jobs. That is idiocy.

    I could write a pro/con list with both and not be sure who was worse. Another potential SC seat for Trump would be the biggest con. The court is already fucked, too theocratic, and the loons are young. They are already out of touch atm and will probably be around another 25 years. That would be the Kamala impulse vote, but I can't this time for reasons already mentioned. I would vote if I felt one was the lesser of two evils with any confidence. I just don't.

    In the sense I am a -1 for Dems, it helps your popular vote theory. I am not a +1 for him though. I am not exactly afraid of verbal confrontation here. If something occurs over the next 3 weeks that convinces me to impulse vote for Trump I'd say it. I hate the MAGA cult more than I hate the cult leader strangely. I get why he wants to con them and understand him, but them being marks for him over and over and continually falling for pure insanity is a more personal hate because I know so many and they are, and have always been, just the dumbest people I have ever encountered. It long ago morphed from pity at their idiocy to contempt with them.
    You left out one point, and I am not sure why you did. It is unusual, especially for a midwestern white guy. I am not sure where you veered off the white guy cliff, but you did. So here is my question, and its a candid question: Why does every fucking country on this planet forbid illegal immigration except the US? Australia never allows it, they are lily white. China, well they have like zero Mexicans, why is that? New Zealand, they would never allow a Venezuelan in their country unless he went through a biological and mental health test. Canada, they are suffocating with their immigration. There might be one exception, England who for some reason allows Muslims and yeah that has turned out great for London.

    I just don't get why guys like you drifted away from the mainstream. You mention your older father time to time, my guess is he probably thinks what the fuck happened to my son? How does a middle aged white guy even remotely identify with Kamala Harris. I don't get it, I doubt he does either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Why does every fucking country on this planet forbid illegal immigration except the US? Australia never allows it, they are lily white. China, well they have like zero Mexicans, why is that? New Zealand, they would never allow a Venezuelan in their country unless he went through a biological and mental health test.

    Stick to plunging shitters and whatever else you claim to have experience in.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I vote for her and I am going to hearing shit about reparations and other assorted Cal Dem shit that I just can't.
    and thats how we ended up with a 7-2 republican supreme court for the rest of our literal lives.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

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    Name:  16CB35EB-24EE-4AB3-B4A6-20B3D296EAC8.png
Views: 92
Size:  493.4 KB

    I still have my doubts about Trump winning Nevada, but I think it's close to a wrap on the rest, with Michigan being the next least likely. I honestly think Kamala might do better in North Carolina than in Pennsylvania at this point.

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    Out of everything, the most unforgivable about this all is them installing her as the nominee. Though unlikely, I'm hoping Trump not only sweeps all the battlegrounds, he picks off at least one unexpected state or more so this never happens again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I vote for her and I am going to hearing shit about reparations and other assorted Cal Dem shit that I just can't.
    and thats how we ended up with a 7-2 republican supreme court for the rest of our literal lives.
    bro tine who cares we need that trump W because kamala is a nonstarter.

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    Somewhat surprised Harris is hanging tight in North Carolina, I would have thought Trump would have pulled away in that state by now. Of course if he sweeps the rust belt he won't need it.

    Thursday, October 17
    National: Trump vs. Harris FOX News
    Harris 48, Trump 50

    Trump +2

    Arizona: Trump vs. Harris CBS News
    Trump 51, Harris 48

    Trump +3

    Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris Rasmussen Reports
    Trump 49, Harris 47

    Trump +2

    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris UMass Lowell
    Trump 45, Harris 46

    Harris +1

    Michigan: Trump vs. Harris MNS/Mitchell Research
    Trump 48, Harris 47

    Trump +1

    Michigan: Trump vs. Harris Rasmussen Reports
    Trump 48, Harris 48

    Tie

    New Hampshire: Trump vs. Harris UMass Lowell
    Harris 50, Trump 41

    Harris +9

    North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Carolina Journal/Cygnal
    Trump 47, Harris 47

    Tie

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