Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[VaughnP]

Biden was +17 in the same Virginia poll released in September 2020.

[tgull]

Biden was +17 in the same Virginia poll released in September 2020.

Biden was also +17 in WI a week before the election per ABC News. The same folks that did the last debate and swore they were honest brokers.

[Texter]

all im saying is, when the 3rd shooter pops up with insanely mysterious resources and background, dont even bother to blame the dems. never mind the fact that he has 0 point 0 intentions of actually doing this, just suggesting it is going to put his picture on dozens of jason bourne type's cell phones.

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https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1836565850687406158

It’s total horse shit. Wall Street will never allow it. lol at all his fentanyl addiction followers getting their credit cards canceled, which exactly what the banks will do.

You’re just now figuring out that politicians promise things that will never happen?

[Texter]

The tide is starting to turn, my guess is Trump will have a clear lead in a couple weeks. The Oprah interview was simply a disaster. She is simply a programmed bot at this point and the general public is catching on. I mean to be tied nationally in the NYT/Sienna poll yesterday after this unprecedented amount of money, and 95% favorable press coverage, it simply is not going to get any better and the downdraft should start in a week or so.

If this poll is not an outlier, she is in big trouble. To be fair, there is always a poll close to the election in Texas saying its close, and the Republican wins by 7. That might be the case here, but the trend is your friend and you get the sense it's starting to turn for Trump.

Virginia: Trump vs. Harris
Univ. of Mary Washington
Harris 48, Trump 46
Harris
+2

Kamala said she would shoot an intruder…Oprah should have asked her what type of weapon she owns. Her BS answer trying to sway undecided voters is malarkey as Joe Biden would say.

[tgull]

The tide is starting to turn, my guess is Trump will have a clear lead in a couple weeks. The Oprah interview was simply a disaster. She is simply a programmed bot at this point and the general public is catching on. I mean to be tied nationally in the NYT/Sienna poll yesterday after this unprecedented amount of money, and 95% favorable press coverage, it simply is not going to get any better and the downdraft should start in a week or so.

If this poll is not an outlier, she is in big trouble. To be fair, there is always a poll close to the election in Texas saying its close, and the Republican wins by 7. That might be the case here, but the trend is your friend and you get the sense it's starting to turn for Trump.

Virginia: Trump vs. Harris
Univ. of Mary Washington
Harris 48, Trump 46
Harris
+2

Kamala said she would shoot an intruder…Oprah should have asked her what type of weapon she owns. Her BS answer trying to sway undecided voters is malarkey as Joe Biden would say.

I saw that. Like she went into a gun store, bought a Smith&Wesson and went to the range with goggles and started practicing. People actually believe this shit. Going to be hilarious when she gets swept in the rustbelt.

[tgull]

The tide is starting to turn, my guess is Trump will have a clear lead in a couple weeks. The Oprah interview was simply a disaster. She is simply a programmed bot at this point and the general public is catching on. I mean to be tied nationally in the NYT/Sienna poll yesterday after this unprecedented amount of money, and 95% favorable press coverage, it simply is not going to get any better and the downdraft should start in a week or so.

If this poll is not an outlier, she is in big trouble. To be fair, there is always a poll close to the election in Texas saying its close, and the Republican wins by 7. That might be the case here, but the trend is your friend and you get the sense it's starting to turn for Trump.

Virginia: Trump vs. Harris
Univ. of Mary Washington
Harris 48, Trump 46
Harris
+2

Kamala said she would shoot an intruder…Oprah should have asked her what type of weapon she owns. Her BS answer trying to sway undecided voters is malarkey as Joe Biden would say.

Whatever gun she claims to own, her handlers will tell her to say "clip" and "chamber" just watch.

[mickeycrimm]

It’s total horse shit. Wall Street will never allow it. lol at all his fentanyl addiction followers getting their credit cards canceled, which exactly what the banks will do.

You’re just now figuring out that politicians promise things that will never happen?

Trump kept his campaign promises better than any president ever has.

[VaughnP]

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Insider advantage hasn't released a National poll yet, but their most recent state polling has Trump +2 PA, Tied GA, +1 MI, +1 NC, +1 NV, +1 AZ. Kamala +2 WI.

The other top 6 pollster missing, RMG, just released a National poll today that has Kamala +2. They used phone calls in the past but now use online panels. (RMG was started by Scott Rasmussen after he left his namesake company. Lesser known fact, the Rasmussens founded ESPN.)

Wick appears to be gone.

[tgull]

The phoniness of Harris is start to show:

Gallup polled just over a thousand American adults from September 3 to 15 and found 46 percent rated Trump favorably, while 44 percent rated Harris favorably. On the flip side, 53 percent rated Trump unfavorably and 54 percent rated Harris unfavorably. While the numbers are similar and within the margin of error, they illustrate a shift that should serve as a flashing red warning sign for the Harris campaign.

[VaughnP]

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https://twitter.com/ElectionTime_/status/1837493375727292874

Here is another Virginia poll. This one is only among adults, not RV or LV, but it shows again that high turnout will almost surely hurt Dems everywhere this time as expected. I don't see Trump winning Virginia, but if these polls are even close to accurate, Kamala has no hope at North Carolina, and despite the very suspect PA polls, is probably going to need to make up a point or two.

The sports books are always unusual on political betting, but it's looking like there will eventually have to be an even bigger second push back to Trump at some point very soon. This would be happening in the next couple of days if not for PolyMarket and people believing that the highest quality polls can show her tied or worse at the national level and PA polls somehow be 4 and even 5 points left of that. Trump not being a 3 to 2 favorite at minimum seems absurd.

[VaughnP]

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https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1837521702961434861

[VaughnP]

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https://twitter.com/davidchapman141/status/1837497409087119485

[tgull]

NBC came out with a poll that says Harris is up by +5. The media is literally orgasmic ignoring the three polls earlier this week that shows Trump tied or ahead. Is she really ahead though in the NBC poll. You make the call:

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https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1837843975480209737

[VaughnP]

They have Trump getting only 41% of the vote in the full field version of the poll.

[tgull]

They have Trump getting only 41% of the vote in the full field version of the poll.

It's amazing the MSM is dismissing the NEW YORK TIMES poll from Thursday as a outlier showing the race tied, and Rasmussen showing Trump ahead by 2 points as a right wing poll. But the NBC poll which is a generational joke is spot on for the first time in 8 years? Anyone without blinders can see she is behind.

[lol wow]

he has no chance every day theres like 400 new faggots from california moving to arizona and 1 out of 400 is rich people moving to paradise valley rest is trash

[lol wow]

also druff if you were a senatorial candidate youd be jewben gallegos aaaaaaaaaaa boom roasted

[tgull]

Former President Donald Trump has gained an edge over Kamala Harris in three swing states, according to recent polling, in what serves as a stark warning for the vice president's campaign.

According to the latest New York Times-Siena College poll of likely voters, conducted between September 17 and 21, Trump is leading the vice president in the sunbelt states of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.

In Georgia, a state which Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by just under 12,000 votes, the former president is edging his counterpart by 49 percent to 45 percent.

The last Georgia poll, conducted between August 9 and 14, showed the pair tied at 47 percent each.

In Arizona, meanwhile, Harris is trailing Trump 45 percent to 50, flipped from August, when 49 percent opted for Harris over Trump (45).

North Carolina, which Trump held in 2020, has similarly swung to a slight Trump lead, with the former president gaining three points to lead Harris 49 to 47.

[VaughnP]

Former President Donald Trump has gained an edge over Kamala Harris in three swing states, according to recent polling, in what serves as a stark warning for the vice president's campaign.

According to the latest New York Times-Siena College poll of likely voters, conducted between September 17 and 21, Trump is leading the vice president in the sunbelt states of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.

In Georgia, a state which Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by just under 12,000 votes, the former president is edging his counterpart by 49 percent to 45 percent.

The last Georgia poll, conducted between August 9 and 14, showed the pair tied at 47 percent each.

In Arizona, meanwhile, Harris is trailing Trump 45 percent to 50, flipped from August, when 49 percent opted for Harris over Trump (45).

North Carolina, which Trump held in 2020, has similarly swung to a slight Trump lead, with the former president gaining three points to lead Harris 49 to 47.

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https://twitter.com/davidchapman141/status/1838151055218983365

Short version.


Keep in mind that Nate Cohn, head of their polling, basically admitted their Kamala +4 PA poll was wrong. AtlasIntel and Rasmussen are set to release their next state polling any day now. Multiple projections say that if Trump wins North Carolina his odds this time are around 75%. With what we are seeing in Virginia how can anyone objectively not be bullish on Trump? Again, him not being at least a 3 to 2 favorite in the betting markets is absurd.

[VaughnP]

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https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1838176980316950642

Take a look at these swings.