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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #321
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by vpbob View Post
    BS. Trump is devoting more resources to WI than Harris.
    https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1834604207514542377
    Per electoral vote, Trump is spending the second most per electoral vote in WI, whereas Harris is spending the fourth most.
    https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1836096702912303591
    What even is your argument? Does her spending in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada look to be that of the candidate supposedly ahead? Trump is spending significantly less, and the media would have one believe that the current states most on the line for either candidate besides the obvious Pennsylvania are Georgia and North Carolina.

    Ads target individuals, not electoral votes. Basing the ad spending on electoral votes is obviously a gross oversimplification. Wisconsin has a population of 5.9 million, Georgia has a population of 10.9 million, and North Carolina has 10.7 million. When you break this down by eligible voting population it gets crazier. WI 4.5 million, GA 7.8 million, NC 8.1 million.

    Her campaign is spending $7.5 per eligible voter in Wisconsin, $5 per in GA, $3.70 per person in NC. Feel free to pull the eligible voter data yourself. This was based off the totals from the last election and rounded up.

    Go back and look at the spending from the month before, Trump's campaign spent considerably less than this month. One candidate is in a countering and holding pattern, the other is in a desperation pattern. What's your explanation for her extreme spending in Nevada? Kamala's campaign has more money, but this doesn't mean they will just waste it.

    Nevada is their hope to counter Trump winning Pennsylvania while planning for more Georgia shenanigans. They've been campaigning in North Carolina and testing the ad effectiveness to see if they can move the needle at all for this same scenario.

    Though a less likely scenario, her winning Nevada guards against Trump losing every blue wall state and still winning. High quality public polls for New Hampshire would be interesting. RFK was doing better there than any state, and remember Kamala campaigned there after he dropped out while simultaneously forcing stories about the "pathetic", "sad", "sorry" state of Trump's NH campaign.

    When you understand the desperation and that the mainstream media is essentially the propaganda arm of the DNC, how they've covered GA and NC makes much more sense.
    If I may summarize, you believe that all data re: the election campaigns including polls, advertising dollars being spent etc. is skewed by the mainstream media,"the propaganda arm of the DNC"

    So according to you, the fix is in regardless of Trump melting down in public almost daily. Dogs, cats, immigrants.

    What are your thoughts on the moon landing? Another mainstream media operation?

    Yeah.

     
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      splitthis: Go have a drink
    "The founding fathers did not like the idea of the tyranny of the majority ruling the country"
    Dan Druff

    “I don't know what weapons World War III will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
    Albert Einstein

    "Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today if a gift
    and that is why it's called the present"

    Eleanor Roosevelt

  2. #322
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    So you the one of the worst pollster in 2020 publishing yesterday, Quinnipiac, and the left goes orgasmic. Then there is this today from left leaning WAPO:

    https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1836728925222756446

  3. #323
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    You won't see MSNBC covering today's polls now will you? They only cover the ones that fit their narrative. BTW, I know several here thought the FOX poll was great for Harris. Ummm, no its terrible. She needs to carry the national vote between 3 and 4 to be close or win the EC. 2 points is a virtual guarantee Trump sweep of the battlegrounds.


    Thursday, September 19
    National: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
    Harris 47, Trump 47

    Tie

    National: Trump vs. Harris FOX News
    Harris 50, Trump 48

    Harris +2

    Arizona: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
    Trump 49, Harris 48

    Trump +1

    Nevada: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
    Harris 48, Trump 48

    Tie

    Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
    Harris 48, Trump 49

    Trump +1

    Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris Marist
    Harris 50, Trump 49

    Harris +1

    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Washington Post
    Harris 48, Trump 48


    Tie

    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
    Harris 47, Trump 48

    Trump +1

    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Marist
    Harris 49, Trump 49

    Tie

  4. #324
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    The NYT/Siena poll also put out a Pennsylvania poll done in conjunction with the Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper today that has Harris at +4. The National poll was done with close to 2500 LV.

  5. #325
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    You won't see MSNBC covering today's polls now will you? They only cover the ones that fit their narrative. BTW, I know several here thought the FOX poll was great for Harris. Ummm, no its terrible. She needs to carry the national vote between 3 and 4 to be close or win the EC. 2 points is a virtual guarantee Trump sweep of the battlegrounds.


    Thursday, September 19
    National: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
    Harris 47, Trump 47

    Tie

    National: Trump vs. Harris FOX News
    Harris 50, Trump 48

    Harris +2

    Arizona: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
    Trump 49, Harris 48

    Trump +1

    Nevada: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
    Harris 48, Trump 48

    Tie

    Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
    Harris 48, Trump 49

    Trump +1

    Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris Marist
    Harris 50, Trump 49

    Harris +1

    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Washington Post
    Harris 48, Trump 48


    Tie

    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
    Harris 47, Trump 48

    Trump +1

    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Marist
    Harris 49, Trump 49

    Tie
    Same question to you. Do you believe the fix is in with the media. Competitors since inception, they now are ignoring certain polls that you point to?

    One more query, is the fix in with balloting even after the same claim from loser Trump was proven false on multiple occasions?

    Trump would be in jail right now if he didn't have the money to delay the process.
    The main stream media doesn't say this. They should but they don't.
    "The founding fathers did not like the idea of the tyranny of the majority ruling the country"
    Dan Druff

    “I don't know what weapons World War III will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
    Albert Einstein

    "Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today if a gift
    and that is why it's called the present"

    Eleanor Roosevelt

  6. #326

  7. #327
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    tweeter

    grade 10 I'm guessing
    "The founding fathers did not like the idea of the tyranny of the majority ruling the country"
    Dan Druff

    “I don't know what weapons World War III will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
    Albert Einstein

    "Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today if a gift
    and that is why it's called the present"

    Eleanor Roosevelt

  8. #328

  9. #329
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    I'm surprised someone from the Trump campaign hasn't given Vance a special pager yet.

    Shadow Con? Shady con.... but still

     
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      Sanlmar: Immaculate. First laugh of day
    "The founding fathers did not like the idea of the tyranny of the majority ruling the country"
    Dan Druff

    “I don't know what weapons World War III will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
    Albert Einstein

    "Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today if a gift
    and that is why it's called the present"

    Eleanor Roosevelt

  10. #330
    Diamond garrett's Avatar
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  11. #331
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  12. #332
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    A more fair point than some are willing to admit.

  13. #333
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    A more fair point than some are willing to admit.
    Its not fair at all nor is it thought provoking. Something like 75 million people are voting for Trump. There are myriad reasons beyond someone is one thing or another.

  14. #334
    Diamond garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    MY POST was the most important here Sanlmar, so back the fuck up idiot and if fat boy Sonatine wants some too, im waiting and ready always..

    Both of you FAKE fkn PUSSIE STFU now, or im going to expose you fat losers, have a nice day....

  15. #335
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    all im saying is, when the 3rd shooter pops up with insanely mysterious resources and background, dont even bother to blame the dems. never mind the fact that he has 0 point 0 intentions of actually doing this, just suggesting it is going to put his picture on dozens of jason bourne type's cell phones.



    https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1836565850687406158
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  16. #336

  17. #337
    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    all im saying is, when the 3rd shooter pops up with insanely mysterious resources and background, dont even bother to blame the dems. never mind the fact that he has 0 point 0 intentions of actually doing this, just suggesting it is going to put his picture on dozens of jason bourne type's cell phones.



    https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1836565850687406158
    It’s total horse shit. Wall Street will never allow it. lol at all his fentanyl addiction followers getting their credit cards canceled, which exactly what the banks will do.

     
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      sonatine: exactly

  18. #338
    Gold The Boz's Avatar
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    If anyone is betting Trump to win check out Bovada for this potential opportunity. IF he wins I and most everyone still believes he will lose the popular vote. So why not take the odds on the parlay? I’m an anti parlay person unless it makes sense and in this case it certainly does if you think he is winning the electoral college.

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  19. #339
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    The tide is starting to turn, my guess is Trump will have a clear lead in a couple weeks. The Oprah interview was simply a disaster. She is simply a programmed bot at this point and the general public is catching on. I mean to be tied nationally in the NYT/Sienna poll yesterday after this unprecedented amount of money, and 95% favorable press coverage, it simply is not going to get any better and the downdraft should start in a week or so.

    If this poll is not an outlier, she is in big trouble. To be fair, there is always a poll close to the election in Texas saying its close, and the Republican wins by 7. That might be the case here, but the trend is your friend and you get the sense it's starting to turn for Trump.

    Virginia: Trump vs. Harris
    Univ. of Mary Washington
    Harris 48, Trump 46
    Harris
    +2

  20. #340
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    The tide is starting to turn, my guess is Trump will have a clear lead in a couple weeks. The Oprah interview was simply a disaster. She is simply a programmed bot at this point and the general public is catching on. I mean to be tied nationally in the NYT/Sienna poll yesterday after this unprecedented amount of money, and 95% favorable press coverage, it simply is not going to get any better and the downdraft should start in a week or so.

    If this poll is not an outlier, she is in big trouble. To be fair, there is always a poll close to the election in Texas saying its close, and the Republican wins by 7. That might be the case here, but the trend is your friend and you get the sense it's starting to turn for Trump.

    Virginia: Trump vs. Harris
    Univ. of Mary Washington
    Harris 48, Trump 46
    Harris
    +2
    You need to smash some of the offshore books. Trump is plus money. They are taking all the action you are willing to give

    disclaimer: opinions expressed and information provided are for entertainment purposes only

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