Originally Posted by abrown83
I'm going to come across as a bit of a douche but I really know more about this then anyone on this board by miles.
In order to get Trump to the numbers they are reporting they are basing turnout at 170,000 voters on Monday. No Iowa Caucus has had more than 120,000. When you weight the numbers more towards historical turnouts the numbers are more like 35% Cruz, 18% Trump, 16-18% Rubio. Now my common sense brain is telling me people are bailing on Trump left and right around Iowa based on no showing the debate.
Cruz has 12,000 Iowa volunteers on Monday. Think about that 10% of all the people voting are volunteering to assist the night of the caucus. That's more votes than most candidates will get and he has that in volunteers. The guy is doubling up on captains for the caucus locations.
It would probably require Trump to get 25,000 Republican registrations the night of the caucus that'd be adding 5% to the Republican Party in Iowa. An unheard of and impossible number.
Rubio is surging in Iowa and presumably that will carry forward into NH, especially if he finished second.
Lastly, by Tuesday Trump will be in full meltdown mode and most likely calling Iowans stupid, Republicans stupid, Cruz stupid, Rubio stupid and basically anyone and everyone in his path before he quits like a little bitch.
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