Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post


He could be 100% right though? I mean he’s completely opposite every market, every good bookmaker in the world, but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong.


If you think the election and polling errors are similar to 2016 and 2020, his estimates are realistic.

But atlas and Trafalgar and all those polls were so far off during the mid terms, having Herschel Walker up 4 and other laughable results, that it becomes about has abortion ruling changed the playing field permanently or is Trump a unique thing on Election Day.

Thiel spent millions over a personal grudge with Hulk Hogan. If he gave me $50 million to lie I’d take it. So it’s possible he’s getting so rich lying that he no longer cares about credibility or will change it drastically at last minute?

Or he can be right?

I feel like we truly aren’t going to know until the actual election.

The whole burn him at the cross because he’s saying shit we don’t like part is going to look really dumb if he’s right. I hope he’s getting really mega paid by Thiel if he’s wrong though, because if he sticks with those numbers, they’ll set the narrative for the it got stolen crowd and all kinds of bad shit

Or he’ll be the only liberal who was telling the truth about the probabilities and expectations and a hero.

One of the more interesting stories going on.


america electing a black woman to be president seems borderline impossible against any stable normal white republican male. factor in trump's darkly comedic failings and kamala at 35% seems realistic tbh.
I agree. I think it’s going to fall somewhere in the middle. Like if she’s polling ahead 3, this shit is going to take a month to sort out. Her number is where Biden was in these polls. Like 49% in most. His number is much higher. The whole embarrassed to admit they are Trump voters thing isn’t what it once was is my guess.

But I think he’s like 55/45 to win. 65 feels a bit high because he’s playing so badly atm, but I’d still rather have Trump ticket than Kamala for even money.