Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

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10-15-2024, 08:55 AM
tgull

Harris is absolutely collapsing in the betting markets:

Market icon

Donald Trump

$565,158,828 Vol.

57.9%
Market icon

Kamala Harris

$383,126,673 Vol.

41.9%
10-15-2024, 09:01 AM
Sloppy Joe

They better start hiding him, deranged senility won't play well with anyone.

Embedded Tweet
10-15-2024, 09:17 AM
tgull

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe

They better start hiding him, deranged senility won't play well with anyone.

Embedded Tweet

How is standing there listening to a song, or people leaving an event deranged? I do agree, his best strategy is to play golf and watch her further implode while poor people become unglued. If you don't have a couple million in this loose money economy you are a total fucking loser. I made $20,000 last month just trading stocks, its so easy.
10-15-2024, 10:16 AM
VaughnP

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by VaughnP

https://x.com/ElectionTime_/status/1837493375727292874

Here is another Virginia poll. This one is only among adults, not RV or LV, but it shows again that high turnout will almost surely hurt Dems everywhere this time as expected. I don't see Trump winning Virginia, but if these polls are even close to accurate, Kamala has no hope at North Carolina, and despite the very suspect PA polls, is probably going to need to make up a point or two.

The sports books are always unusual on political betting, but it's looking like there will eventually have to be an even bigger second push back to Trump at some point very soon. This would be happening in the next couple of days if not for PolyMarket and people believing that the highest quality polls can show her tied or worse at the national level and PA polls somehow be 4 and even 5 points left of that. Trump not being a 3 to 2 favorite at minimum seems absurd.

That was a few weeks ago.

In all actuality Trump is somewhere around a 4 or 5 to 1 favorite, betting markets account for Libtardia TDS and bias in public perception. If the election were today, 10 to 1 +. If something doesn't drastically change, PolyMarket will shift to the 3 or 4 to 1 range at some point. Michigan polling is exposing the truth, and it's not possible for Michigan to be Trump +1 or 2 and not be +3 or so in Pennsylvania.
10-15-2024, 10:19 AM
The Boz

1 Attachment(s)

Truth sucks libs!
10-15-2024, 10:22 AM
The Boz

Trump now -145 Ho +125 at Bovada.

Can still get +200 on Trump win but Ho winning popular vote, still the best bet if you believe Trump is winning the EC.
10-15-2024, 10:26 AM
Jayjami

Quote:

Originally Posted by tgull

I made $20,000 last month just trading stocks, its so easy.

The Stock Market is at an all time high. Thanks Uncle Joe!
10-15-2024, 10:32 AM
The Boz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jayjami

Quote:

Originally Posted by tgull

I made $20,000 last month just trading stocks, its so easy.

The Stock Market is at an all time high. Thanks Uncle Joe!

Should be a bigger talking point for Ho, but her base doesn’t want to hear about it since they demonize success. When the reality is over 63% of Americans own stock in some form.

The other issue is the market always has gone up over time under Presidents of both parties. With a few bumps along the way, corporate America always finds way to make money regardless of policies created to hurt them.

However the proposed tax on unrealized Capital Gains would be a market killer, but it will never pass so it’s a non issue.
10-15-2024, 12:36 PM
tgull

WE ARE WINNING!

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846195959258095713
10-15-2024, 12:45 PM
tgull

Tuesday, October 15
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Trump 49, Harris 48
Trump
+1
Michigan: Multi-Candidate
MRG
Trump 44, Harris 45, Kennedy 3, Stein 2, Oliver 1, West 1
Harris
+1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trump 47, Harris 45
Trump
+2
Texas: Trump vs. Harris
University of Houston
Trump 51, Harris 46
Trump
+5
10-15-2024, 01:16 PM
tgull

#NEW NORTH CAROLINA poll 🔴 Trump: 51% (+5) 🔵 Harris: 46% @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/9-14 | N=1,042LV
10-15-2024, 03:00 PM
go_buccos

Quote:

Originally Posted by tgull

#NEW NORTH CAROLINA poll 🔴 Trump: 51% (+5) 🔵 Harris: 46% @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/9-14 | N=1,042LV

HUGE move on Pinnacle today. Trump now -170,(no vig line -155) up from -146 this morning.
10-15-2024, 04:38 PM
tgull

YES WE ARE GOING TO WIN!

https://x.com/ScottPresler/status/18...fbKHJto9Q&s=19
10-15-2024, 04:44 PM
tgull

oh fuck yeah

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846281408391618859
10-15-2024, 05:19 PM
tgull

I DONT MAKE THE RULES. I DONT. YOU GOT THAT?

New General election poll - Georgia 🔴 Trump 49% (+2) 🔵 Harris 47% Last poll - 🟡 Tie Insider advantage #B - 800 LV - 10/15
10-15-2024, 06:44 PM
1dollarboxcar

as much as i want DJT to win, they ain't gonna let him win... even with DJT polling better with people of color than any other Republican in history ( beating his old mark ) they just ain't gonna let him win..

https://x.com/tonyxtwo/status/184629...EENLDqSWyJ3hng
10-16-2024, 05:53 AM
tgull

Wednesday, October 16
National: Trump vs. Harris
Marquette
Harris 50, Trump 50
Tie
National: Trump vs. Harris
Marist
Harris 52, Trump 47
Harris
+5
10-16-2024, 06:09 AM
tgull

Trump has surged to 59% on Polymarket. He is up to 54% on Predicitit, which is significant. Predicitit caps bets to $850, so it really is designed for poor people like say Sloppy Joe. Retail bettors. The smart money is on Polymarket, and its heavy Trump. I dropped over $850 at a high end steak house last weekend, its chump change.
10-16-2024, 10:35 AM
Jayjami

Quote:

Originally Posted by tgull

Trump has surged to 59% on Polymarket. He is up to 54% on Predicitit, which is significant. Predicitit caps bets to $850, so it really is designed for poor people like say Sloppy Joe. Retail bettors. The smart money is on Polymarket, and it’s heavy Trump. I dropped over $850 at a high end steak house last weekend, it’s chump change.

lol @ bragging about your alleged wealth to impress people on the internet who don’t care. Tight life.
10-16-2024, 06:54 PM
go_buccos

Quote:

Originally Posted by go_buccos

Pinnacle just put up all the swing state odds today.

EC winner: Trump +103, Harris -124
Arizona: Trump -160
Florida: Trump -552
Georgia: Trump -146
Maine: (statewide winner) Harris -725
Michigan: Harris -179
Nevada: Harris -124
New Hampshire: Harris -790
North Carolina: Trump -140
PA: Harris -128
Texas: Trump -909
Virginia: Harris -1050
Wisconsin: Harris -189

Above were the opening Pinny odds on 9/12/2024 for each battleground state. Current Pinny odds below:

EC Winner: Trump -177, Harris +150
Arizona: Trump -260
Florida: Trump -1870
Georgia: Trump -243
Maine: OFF
Michigan TIE -110
Nevada: Harris -115
New Hampshire: Harris -700
North Carolina: Trump -208
PA: Trump -143
Texas: Trump -2225
Virginia: Harris -680
Wisconsin: Trump -123

Popular vote winner: (just added) Harris -252

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