Friends, this thread is to discuss data points, rumors and predictions for the upcoming Presidential and House and Senate Election November 5th. Betting predictions are also welcome. I would like to keep polling out of this one, since they are really meaningless this close to the election. Welcome new posters, glad to have you here.
Timing Of Vote per @NBCNews Already Voted: 🔵 Harris +7 Vote On Election Day: 🔴 Trump +16
An historic election result it will be. First female President and widest margin of victory.
First one, yeah could happen. Second, impossible.Quote:
Originally Posted by limitles
I know Druff has been weakened and has to take pills in order to walk now but not offering tyde furlough here for the probable victory lap is a new level of cowardice.
You can tell how worried Trump is by how unhinged he is in his last couple of speeches. He’s going back to the blaming people and accusations of voter fraud shtick.
New: Former Obama 2012 Campaign Manager sounds the alarm for Harris: The early vote numbers are scary. Republicans didn't do what they did last time. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers. When the early vote comes in that's scary.
Regardless of your politics, I think most would agree that Jon Tester is one of the most unremarkable Senators of modern times. Guy has been there forever and you never hear a peep out of him. He supposedly has the record for number of steaks eaten paid for by lobbyists of any politician in the history of Washington.
Regardless of him being in a Solid Red State he has been a vote that Dems can always count on. So they always poor a shit ton of money into keeping his ass in the Senate. Like the biggest cockroach in the world he seems to find a way to survive and keep his seat.
So I didn’t look much into this race other than occasionally looking at the RCP average. I was like ok…this Republican Sheehy is finally going to take this seat back. He was up 6 or 7 points last time I checked.
Then I saw this interview come up on my YouTube page. Well, if Tester survives again you will know why. Megyn Kelly is certainly “right-wing “ media. But she’s not a total pushover. Whomever let him do this interview is a fucking moron. Guy should have stayed locked away in the basement until Nov 6.
Just watch. No need for me to comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7ED3YF3xJM&t=315s
PolyMarket
Donald Trump
$1,191,914,477 Vol. <----------
55.0%
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Kamala Harris
$766,626,419 Vol.
I had a former fund manager when I worked in that business, yes briefly, say always follow the money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
The public money usually loses.
That goes double for the public money of gullible cultists.
But not enough of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Fetterman is a good dude. The Rogan interview is worth listening to. He gets off to a rough start but it's because of a technical issue. He depends on live closed captioning, there was a problem I guess because of network issue, once they fix it all is well. It's a shame this guy had a massive stroke, I'd feel a lot better if someone like him were the future of the party.
That stoke turned him retarded unfortunately. Hopefully he has care around him
Nah but for reals tho he already endorsed Harris
This is Nate Silver, he is not a pollster, but a probability forecaster his margins are merely a deduction from the mean from 100. Big difference methodology from a pollster:
#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast: Chance of winning MICHIGAN Harris 60% (+20) Trump 40% . WISCONSIN Harris 58% (+15) Trump 43% . PENNSYLVANIA Trump 54% (+8) Harris 46% . NEVADA Trump 53% (+6) Harris 47% . NORTH CAROLINA Trump 62% (+24) Harris 38% . GEORGIA Trump 62% (+24) Harris 38% . ARIZONA Trump 72% (+44) Harris 28%
fetterman could probably run as a republican presidential candidate with his current positions/platforms and bink like a 450+ EC majority.
FTR, I do not agree with Nate, even though he is a genius. I agree with James Carville, the battlegrounds are going 7-0 in one direction or the other. This obsession with PA is just not plausible. The 7 states either all go to Trump or Harris.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
RUMOR:
New reporting that hard conversations are ongoing inside Harris campaign headquarters at this time. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz met with campaign manager Julie Chavez, Jen O'Malley Dillon, and campaign co-chair Gretchen Whitmer this morning to review early voting data. The meeting was described as somber. Harris was told to prepare herself mentally for a devastating loss on Tuesday. The joy is gone.
Meanwhile, back in reality…Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull